Replies

Globalism / Great Reset –

Hype grows for the the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2023 taking place January 16-20, 2023 in Davos, Switzerland. I’ve posted their announced agenda in previous posts.

A harbinger of things to come in the new global order, increasing numbers of criminal prosecutions in various countries in Europe for anyone being vocal and opposing the Trans – tyranny. Norway for instance added “gender identity and gender expression” as protected categories under hate speech laws. Recently Christina Ellingsen was accused under these laws and, if found guilty of “transphobia,” could face three years in prison.

OBSERVATION – Europe is in general a lot longer distance down the socialist trail than the US, but we are working hard to catch up. The academic world is totally within the vice grip of the Tranny terrorists and any contrary views grounds for losing their job. Many other fields facing the same. It is only a matter of a short time that opposing LGBT and tranny tyranny will yield criminal penalties here.

Lützerath, in western Germany, is the focal point of the green agenda versus economic realities for the German people. The town is to be destroyed to permit the expansion of a coal mine. With Germany facing massive energy shortfalls, they’ve been forced to continue use of coal. Environmental extremists vow to prevent the expansion claiming it violates the limits of the Paris agreement.

OBSERVATION – one of the environmental protestors claimed that “People are dying now from the climate crisis,”. In that she has it backwards, people are dying from the lack of power and heat, not any pseudo-global warming.

Economy –

During an interview with CBS News on Friday, Bank of America Chief Economist Michael Gapen stated that it “will probably take two years, if not three years to get inflation back down to the Fed’s desired 2% level.”
Gapen said, “I think the numbers tell us that the labor market is still quite hot. The unemployment rate number that you mentioned is the lowest we’ve seen since 1968. So, it’s about a five-decade low. 223,000 jobs added in the month of December. That pace has come down, but that’s a robust number in any normal expansion. So, I think job-seekers right now are probably still meeting with a lot of success and I think labor demand remains exceptionally strong.”
He added, “225,000 jobs or so per month is about twice as much job growth as I think the Fed would like to see.”

OBSERVATION – That would imply 2-3 years of economy damaging high interest rates and unemployment going up to the 5+% level. That kind of drain on the economic resiliency of the country following the devastating wuhan shutdowns could create a myriad of economic difficulties and hardships, including diving into a deep recession or even depression.

Numbers are in and biden’s cancellation of the Keystone pipeline cost the economy about 59,468 jobs, and $9.61 Billion in GDP.

OBSERVATION – Keystone was one of the first rounds fired against the petroleum industry by the biden regime and its desires to kill the industry for replacement by ‘green’ resources.

California’s government is facing an estimated budget deficit of $24 billion this year, a stark reversal from the record-setting surpluses that the state saw in recent years which comes amid ongoing inflation and heightened fears of a looming recession.
California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO), which provides state officials with nonpartisan budget forecasts, warned in a report that the state faces a projected $24 billion deficit in 2023-24 mainly because tax revenues are about $41 billion lower than expected.

OBSERVATION – Before we cheer about this, remember that the consequences will ripple outwards across the nation in one way or another. IIRC just last year kalifornia was boasting of a $96 billion SURPLUS.

Invasion of Illegals –

Biden at a show visit in El Paso.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden will make his first official visit to the U.S.-Mexico border in his more than 50 years in Washington. El Paso had to literally use bulldozers in some places to ‘sanitize’ areas of biden’s visit.

CW2/Domestic violence –

A poll was conducted by SurveyUSA in eight states, that included Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, and Hawaii. Support for exiting the union polled highest in Texas, with regular voters showing 66% support and voters who vote only in presidential elections showing 63%. This sentiment is shared in varying degrees in other Red States. On the other end of the spectrum, blue states are showing more of an inclination to separate as well. This trend shows no sign of stopping as the partisan divide grows larger and more volatile.

OBSERVATION - Momentum grows for a split of some kind. Some desire an amicable divorce, but reality is such a split will result in power loss to the Marxist democrats in DC as well as in blue states/regions. They may not be so willing to release power.

IN RELATED – last weeks 3-day vote-a-thon for Speaker has by some been related to the last marathon Speaker fight which preceeded the start of the Civil War. Some of the comparisons are not too valid other than the apparent fact that the partisan divide is growing between red and blue and a split of some kind is on the horizion.

The J6 committee “accidentally “ released the SSNs and other personal data on about 2000 individuals who were Trump supporters.

OBSERVATION – “Accidental” releases of personal information by leftists in govt is an ongoing and increasing issue. Very simple to get info out to target individuals under the guise of an ‘accident’, knowing full well that there will be no consequences for the action. Those who posted the information knew full well that it was in violation of the Privacy Act of 1974,
Kalifornia did a similar ‘accidental’ release of CCW permit holders a couple years ago.

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Twitter keeps releasing files, now up to 14 IIRC.

POLITICAL FRONT –

With the speakership settled, now the interparty fighting and maneuvering begins. Many house republicans are looking for pay back on democrats for their baseless investigations over the past years.

China –

Indicators –
- For the second time in less than a month, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is holding large-scale exercises in the waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan. The military exercise near Taiwan will be on the eve of visits by German and Lithuanian lawmakers to the self-governed island. The drill has been described as countering “separatist forces.”

The training exercise was announced on Sunday by Colonel Shi Yi, the spokesman for the Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). He said it would involve sea and airspace maneuvers around Taiwan, focusing on land strikes and amphibious assault action.
The exercise was “designed to test the joint combat capabilities of the troops and resolutely counteract the provocative actions of external forces and ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists,”a statement said.

OBSERVATION – The Ukraine example had tens of thousands of Russian troops deploy to the borders of Ukraine under the cover of “exercises”. China will likely employ a similar tactic, bringing troops in and just leaving them there after the exercise is ended - growing the force bit by bit. Ramping up of military exercises and associated force build up all point to potential action by China.

- China’s warplane incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone nearly doubled in 2022, with a surge in fighter jet and bomber sorties as Beijing intensified threats towards the island democracy.
China sent 1,727 planes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in 2022, according to an AFP database based on daily updates released by Taipei’s defence ministry.

That compares with around 960 incursions in 2021 and 380 in 2020.

Fighter jet sorties more than doubled from 538 in 2021 to 1,241 while incursions by bombers, including the nuclear-capable H6, went from 60 to 101.

OBSERVATION – This increase in air activity – in addition to increasing naval incursions show that China is working out how to manage large numbers of sorties and naval missions that will be necessary in the event of an invasion. Further, the necessity of air force and navy coordination for successful operations.

Japan –

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida began a week-long visit to Europe today. The visit, reportedly intended to strengthen military ties between Japan and the E.U., will conclude Friday with a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden. Kishida is scheduled to visit the leaders of France, Italy, Britain, and Canada.

OBSERVATION – Continuing effort by Japan to ready itself for an expected move on Taiwan that may also include Chinese attempts to seize Japan’s nearby southern islands.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

RUMINT-
According to the Daily Mail, the head of military intelligence in Ukraine believes that Vladimir Putin “is terminally ill with cancer”…
Vladimir Putin is terminally ill with cancer and will die very soon, Ukraine’s military intelligence head has claimed.
Kyrylo Budanov, without providing evidence, said he knows the Russian despot’s death is imminent due to an ongoing illness from cancer.
When asked how soon Putin might die, Budanov stated that he thinks that it will come “very fast”…
Asked when he thinks Putin’s death will come, Budanov said that he thought it would be very soon.
‘I think very fast. I hope.’
Speculation about Putin’s health has been ongoing for several years. The 70-year-old Russian leader has been rumoured to be suffering from cancer, Parkinson’s Disease and numerous other ailments.

OBSERVATION – This rumor has been around for a while, but has increased since the start of the war. Putin’s public appearances have done little to calm the rumors, clearly showing signs of physical weakness and medical related problems. The concern is who will replace him if he dies during this war? Kremlin observers note that the likely candidates are very much more warmongering than putin has been.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
- Military enlistment office was set on fire in Bratsk, Russia.

Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant changes on the battlefield, Russia continues attacks to capture Bahkmut and lands west – northwest of Donetsk. Russian artillery focused on the Svatove – Donetsk line in eastern Ukraine, widely scattered and sporadic elsewhere.
Ukraine launched another round of HIMARS strikes on Russian troop concentrations, command posts and logistical sites in the occupied territories.

OUTLOOK ——
Same old, same old. Russia continues to press attacks against Bahkmut and near Donetsk. Weather is still delaying any winter offensives by either side, although the trend seems to be for more subfreezing temperatures.

Russia is about due for another round of missile/drone attacks on Ukraine, probably within the next few days.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Belarus -

Ministry of Defense of Belarus announced new drill with Russian troops, aviation and air defense at all airfields and firing ranges across Belarus starting January 16th until February 1st.

Other OSINT observers/analysts noting increased movement of Russian soldiers and equipment into the region. The exercise areas are concentrated in the center and southwest of the country. No reportable formation of new maneuver units and the amount of armor and equipment into Belarus is far less than Belarus has contributed to Russia over the past 10 months.
Most dangerous course of action at this time is Russia taking remaining Belarus equipment for an attack southward. This may not be acceptable to the Belarus military nor narrative that they are facing invasion by NATO elements – primarily Poland.

Pakistan –

Pakistan’s port city of Gwadar, a key link in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, was shut down by authorities as part of a crackdown after weeks of protests in the city.

The shutdown comes as Pakistan’s capital of Islamabad faced food riots over the weekend. Pakistan’s finance minister is currently meeting with International Monetary Fund officials in Geneva in an attempt to get $1.1 billion in relief funds released to the country. Currently, Pakistan only has enough foreign exchange reserves to cover one month of imports.

OBSERVATION – Continued economic meltdown threatens the stability of this nuclear power and increases potential for nuclear systems to be compromised.

Iran –

Tehran, Iran Locals in the capital’s Sattarkhand district are continuing the nationwide protests against the government on the 115th night of the uprising. Other protests reported in several other locations.

Iran is also making preparations to execute more protestors.

Central / South America General-

Supporters of Bolsonaro broke through barriers & entered the Brazilian congress in Brasilia. Luiz Lula da Silva, a left-wing politician who was previously imprisoned for corruption, was inaugurated last week after narrowly defeating Bolsonaro.
Military police were observed accompanying the Bolsonarista insurrection on its way to the Three Powers Plaza in Brasilia. Some policemen of Rio de Janeiro refuse to disperse Bolsonaro supporters and clearly express their support for the protesters.

The protests were broken up by the end of the day with hundreds arrested. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva says perpetrators will be found and punished after supporters of Brazilian far-right ex-President Jair Bolsonaro stormed Congress.

Trump is now being blamed for the riots in Brazil over the weekend.

OBSERVATION – This appears to be the start of a cyclical action-reaction- re-reaction. Crackdown on Bolsonaro supporters will create pushback by supporters (and more protests) instigating another crackdown. Lather, rinse, repeat.
What should be of great concern for da Silva is that in many locations the police marched in support – this sets up a potential civil war conflict scenario as pro-Bolsonario regions set up their own shadow govt and the govt may try to crack down – resulting in a shooting battle.
So far the military has been on the sidelines, not ready to step in on one side or the other.

The massive releases from the Twitter files clearly show the depth of corruption and desire to control narrative for power’s sake is disgusting and shows just how deep the swamp is. It suggests that conventional means of cleaning the swamp are unlikely to succeed and that a CW2 scenario is building in the upcoming years.

Globalism / Great Reset –

See Cancel Culture for outworking of the WEF’s stated goal to control what information is posted on social media and the necessary censoring of ‘misinformation’ these globalists believe is necessary. I’ve seen some consider the WEF as being a paper tiger as a non-governmental authority – yet governments all over the world are implementing its goals and plans.

The Biden administration’s Consumer Product Safety Commission is considering a nationwide ban on gas-burning stoves following a new study that claimed the appliances emit harmful pollution that has been linked to asthma in children, Bloomberg reported.

According to the EPA and the World Health Organization, gas-burning stoves emit unsafe levels of nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and particulate matter, which are reported to be linked to respiratory illness, cardiovascular issues, cancer, and other conditions.

A December report from the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health claimed that over 12% “of current childhood asthma nationwide is attributed to gas stove use, which is similar to the childhood asthma burden attributed to secondhand smoke exposure.”

OBSERVATION – Note how quickly the regimen has jumped on this ‘report’ in order to justify its elimination of natural gas cooking stoves. Of course the WHO and EPA would be down on it as well. The goal of the globalists is to remove all natural gas appliances in the near future – as kalifornia is in the process of implementing. They don’t have enough electricity to recharge their EV’s, yet demand you rely on electricity alone for cooking and heating/cooling.

Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He will reportedly travel to Davos, Switzerland next week for the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting. This is the first time in two years that China has sent a delegate to the Davos event. Some suspect that Liu will use a lot of the time making economic / trade connections with the delegates.

Wuhan virus –

See China for latest outbreak.

Economy –

SUMMARY – More and more indicators of not only a recession, but a deep and protracted one at that.

Household spending growth expectations over the next 12 months fell by a full percentage point, to 5.9 percent, in December 2022, according to the latest New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. That’s the lowest level for the reading since January 2022, when the year-ahead spending growth expectations came in at 5.5 percent. Consumer spending is a key driver of the U.S. economy, accounting for about two-thirds of gross domestic product (GDP).

The drop in spending expectations dovetails with a recent downgrade in GDP forecasts from the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s most recent summary of economic projections predicts U.S. GDP will grow by just 0.5 percent in 2023. That’s down sharply from September 2022 projections, which called for a 1.2 percent pace.

OBSERVATION – This latest projection essentially shows zero GDP growth. This is razor thin from falling into recession.

IN RELATED -
The number of job openings in the United States—a measure of labor market tightness—came in far higher than analysts expected, fueling concerns of more inflation and that the Fed will have to double down on aggressive rate hikes.
Job openings came in at 10.5 million as of the last day of November 2022, according to the latest Department of Labor monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

Market forecasts had expected a more modest 10 million vacancies.
At 10.5 million, the number of open jobs far exceeds the 6 million people that are unemployed in the United States. This means that there are roughly 1.75 available jobs per unemployed person.

OBSERVATION – Attacking employment will further reduce Household spending growth even further – thereby dropping the GDP into negative ground – if we follow the Fed’s logic as listed above.
MORE RELATED – In September 2022, Powell said he saw the “need to have softer labor market conditions,” while acknowledging that pushing interest rates higher would likely mean higher rates of joblessness.

“We need to complete this task,” he said at the time, noting that it won’t be “painless.”

The Fed expects to have to boost interest rates above 5 percent and keep them there for some time, while forecasting that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.6 percent by the end of 2023.

OBSERVATION – That is easily a doubling of the unemployment rate combined with extended period of high interest rates that will stifle businesses – especially small businesses without the reserves necessary to weather out a recession.

MORE FED TALK - (Bloomberg) — Two Federal Reserve officials said Monday that the central bank will likely need to raise interest rates above 5% before pausing and holding for some time. “We are just going to have to hold our resolve,” Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, told the Atlanta Rotary Club. He said the Fed was committed to tackling high inflation and this warrants raising interest rates into a 5% to 5.25% range to squeeze excess demand out of the economy.

OBSERVATION – More tea leaf reading on just what the fed will do next. Economists guesstimate that a 50 basis point increase is in the offing given the labor market and the resistantly high inflation rates.

The governors of seven states in the midwest say that a proposed Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rule will cause spikes in gas prices. The EPA currently plans to stop air pollution waivers for E10 gasoline, which contains up to 10% ethanol. According to refiners and pipeline operators, a resulting change in the market from E10 to E15 would threaten short-term fuel supplies and spike prices.

OBSERVATION – Gasoline/diesel are the life blood of the economy and prices ripple throughout. Already we are looking at forecasted gasoline prices in early summer exceeding $4/gallon. Playing around with the ethanol additive will only make matters worse.

Invasion of Illegals –

Biden visited a “migrant services center” in El Paso that provides transportation and gifts to migrants that cross the US-Mexico border illegally this week.
During the tour, Biden asked workers at the center, “If I could wave the wand, what should I do?”

OBSERVATION – biden saw a sanitized El Paso with all the illegal street camps removed.

Biden / Harris watch –

A batch of records from President Biden’s time as Vice President, including a “small number of documents with classified markings,” were discovered at the Penn Biden Center by the president’s personal attorneys on Nov. 2, according to Richard Sauber, special counsel to the White House.
The attorneys found the documents in a locked closet while preparing to vacate office space at the center, which the president used from mid-2017 until he began the 2020 campaign. The National Archives were notified of the finding and took possession of the documents on Nov. 3, 2022, Sauber said.

OBSERVATION – I agree with many commentators – when will the FBI raids occur?

CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Alex Berenson dropped records from the Twitter Files on Monday, stating that a board member for Pfizer pressured Twitter to suppress and censor any posts questioning the efficacy of the company’s mRNA vaccine.
On August 27, 2021, Pfizer Board Member Dr. Scott Gottlieb emailed Todd O’Boyle, a Senior Manager of Public Policy at Twitter’s Washington, DC location, according to LinkedIn, and also Twitter’s point of contact with the White House, Berenson reported.

The email subject line contained a tweet from Dr. Brett Giroir, who had briefly served under Gottlieb in the Food and Drug Administration.
That tweet read: “It’s now clear that [Covid-19] natural immunity is superior to [vaccine] immunity, by ALOT. There’s no scientific justification for [vax proof] if a person had prior infection.”

In response to the tweet, Gottlieb told O’Boyle, “This is the kind of stuff that’s corrosive. Here he draws a sweeping conclusion off of a single retrospective study in Israel that hasn’t been peer-reviewed. But this tweet will end up going viral and driving news coverage.”

While a Strategic Response analyst found that the tweet didn’t violate Twitter’s rules on misinformation, the tweet was still flagged as “misleading.”

OBSERVATION – More and more on how the leftists used censorship to stifle necessary public debate and discussion. While twitter was one of the main supporters of such suppression, no doubt that similar mechanisms were in place and in use on other social media platforms such as fakebook, etc.

MORE RELATED - A recently published email has provided more evidence of President Joe Biden’s administration asking tech platforms to censor content that challenges the federal government’s Covid messaging.
The email shows the Biden White House’s Digital Director for the COVID-19 Response Team, Clarke Humphrey, requesting that Twitter remove a tweet from environmental health lawyer and author Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
“Wanted to flag the below tweet and am wondering if we can get moving on the process for having it removed ASAP,” Humphrey wrote to Twitter in the January 2021 email. “And then if we can keep an eye out for tweets that fall in this same ~genre that would be great.”

OBSERVATION – Govt has no right to interfere in such a manner.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The House has passed a bill clawing back $80 million that was to be used to expand the Internal Revenue Service through the hiring of some 87,000 new agents.

OBSERVATION – Nice, but most likely DOA in the Senate.

Domestic / International Terror (modified)-

A man is facing terrorism charges after he rammed his car through the gate of the Mega Solar Array facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, and set his vehicle on fire damaging the facility. According to an employee, the fire caused significant damage and it could take up to two years to receive replacement parts. The police said the suspect told them he set the fire at the facility “for the future.”

OBSERVATION – The police are labeling this as ‘terrorism’ but so far this individual appears to have mental issues.

China –

WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.

Nearly 90% of people in China’s third most populous province have now been infected with COVID-19, a top official said Monday, as the country battles an unprecedented surge in cases. Kan Quancheng, director of the health commission for central Henan province, told a press conference that “as of January 6, 2023, the province’s COVID infection rate is 89.0%.” With a population of 99.4 million, the figures suggest about 88.5 million people in Henan may now have been infected.

OBSERVATION – Reportedly severely impacting Chinese industry and export. While they still talk about deaths, no evidence that this apparent strain doing the infecting is any more lethal than the original virus.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

********

Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian forces are close to capturing the salt mining town of Soledar on January 8 & 9. Ukrainian defense officials said that while Russian forces don’t fully control Soledar, the situation there is extremely difficult & Wagner personnel are advancing in certain areas. Heaviest fighting seems to be around the enterances to a network of salt tunnels that are beneath much of the area. The Russian attacks in the area have been part of Wagner Groups efforts to encircle Bahkmut from the north. Assessment from analysts is that if the town falls, it is unlikely that Bahkmut will soon fall as Ukraine has extensive defenses in depth. It is also not a ‘break out’ of Russian forces, as the battle as been primarily fought by leg infantry absent significant armor.

Elsewhere along the eastern front, continued attacks out of Donetsk towards the west. There are also reports of major explosions in Russian occupied Kherson and Crimea Oblasts.

OUTLOOK ——
The battle for Soledar looks like it is trending for Russia as a significant amount of support is being given Wagner group (with heavy casualities) to seize the rubble that was the town. Biggest question mark are the salt mine tunnels which reportedly are miles long and rumored to contain cold war era military equipment. The fact that it has taken even Wagner months and months to get this far calls into question any Russian offensive into Donbas. Ukraine has an extensive defense in depth.

Wagner Group, OTOH, is using this “success” in its power plays against the MoD and in getting more resources diverted to its cause.

Iran –

The activist daughter of former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjanihas been sentenced to five years in prison, her lawyer said on Tuesday. The lawyer did not give detail of the charges against Faezeh Hashemi. But Tehran’s public prosecutor indicted Hashemi last year on charges of “propaganda against the system,” according to the semi-official ISNA news agency.
State media in September reported she had been arrested for “inciting riots” in Tehran during protests triggered by the death of a young Kurdish woman in police custody.

OBSERVATION – Protests continue, though at lower numbers. The regime is pushing hard on punishing protestors and even one’s connection to the regime are not enough to protect some of them.