Economy –
Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan warned Americans that an economic recession is the “most likely outcome,” as the central bank continues to tighten monetary policy to fight inflation. Former New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley reinforced Greenspan’s claims, saying that a U.S. recession is “likely” forthcoming because the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are inducing one.
According to Chief Investment Officer for Wealth and Investment Management Darrell Cronk “And keep in mind, it’s not just interest rate hikes or cuts for that matter. It’s the combination of the money, supply is tightening, the stronger U.S. dollar has put pressure on financial conditions. Bank reserves are running off. So there’s a whole myriad of other elements that are also conspiring to tighten financial conditions simultaneously,”
OBSERVATION - More and more it is coming to when – not if – the recession hits. The Fed has only one tool – a hammer – and as stated by Cronk - there is a “whole myriad of other elements” coming into play.
Invasion of Illegals –
President Joe Biden satisfied long-standing calls from conservatives by deciding to visit the U.S.-Mexico border in El Paso, Texas, over the weekend.
The visit comes alongside a host of new immigration measures designed to stem the record flow of illegal crossings. While border hawks remain skeptical, the move also comes with the risk of alienating Biden’s more progressive supporters.
OBSERVATION – The democrat mayor of El Paso has been working hard to get the thousands of illegals camping out on the city streets removed so as to present a very sanitized picture to biden. Biden’s recent announcements on border control are sounding very similar to Trump’s. problem is it is too little, too late. And ANY kind of border control will throw the progressive Marxists in congress into a tizzy.
Biden announced Wednesday that his administration is expanding a program requiring Venezuelans to apply for asylum through a cell phone app without crossing the border to migrants from Cuba, Nicaragua, and Haiti.
Biden said that there are a number of legal pathways for migrants to come to the United States “under our existing laws.”
Biden said that despite these new requirements, Congress still needs to pass a comprehensive immigration law.
OBSERVATION – it has been far easier for biden to just let them pour across the border than follow the ‘existing law’. Fact is the existing law is a bane to the progressives who want no law at all. The only comprehensive immigration law they will accept is complete and full, open ended amnesty.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden is readying the launch of his 2024 reelection campaign, according to The Hill website. The Hill reported that “multiple sources” have told their reporters that “the president is planning to make his intentions to run for a second White House term public in the coming weeks, likely in February, around the State of the Union.”
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
The White House pressed Facebook to censor Fox News host Tucker Carlson for saying “vaccines” “don’t work,” according to a document released by Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry of Louisiana.
Landry along with Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt sued the Biden administration in federal court on May 5, claiming that members of the administration colluded with social media companies to suppress debate on the 2020 presidential election, the COVID-19 pandemic and other issues. The court ordered the Biden administration to turn over communications between officials and the tech companies in July.
OBSERVATION – No way around this – this act is grossly unconstitutional.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russia’s bombing of regions in eastern Ukraine killed at least two people overnight, local officials said on Sunday, after Moscow ended a self-declared Christmas ceasefire and vowed to push on with combat until it reaches a victory over its neighbor.
NOTE – no one expected Russia to keep its word on this cease fire. It was only for public consumption in Russia.
RUMINT-
Unconfirmed reports that Moscow is preparing to call up an additional 500,000 conscripts in January, following the ‘partial mobilization’ which included 300,000 extra troops in October,
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
It appears a smaller Russian missile attack focusing on the Donbas region occurred overnight. Ukraine also struck targets deep into Russian occupied territories as well.
Solda has been the recent forcus on Russia’s effort to encircle Bakhmut from the north. Russia claims capture but Ukraine continues to hold most of the town. It has taken Russia five months to get this far in offensive, and the hardest fighting is yet before them.
OUTLOOK ——
With the potential for frozen soils coming, I expect to see some increase in fighting as both sides try to gain better positions for defense and offense.
Russia has reportedly been shipping a significant portion of the new conscripts to the Savatoe-Kreminna line. Will have to see if OSINT sources can clarify build up areas better – that will give a better view of potential Russian offensive areas and potential objectives.
Belarus -
Thus, at least 1400-1600 soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces could have been transferred to Vitsebsk, Belarus in the past two days.
OBSERVATION – Continuing to monitor the Russian build-up. Even if Belarus joins in an attack, the numbers just aren’t there for anything. The Russian movement into the country at this time seems to be primarily for training and not meeting the levels observed before the start of hostilities in Feb of last year.
Associated training has been in areas in the center of Belarus as well as the southwestern corner. This southwestern corner has a higher probability of being the invasion source as it could threaten western supplies coming in from Poland and the approaches to Kyiv are heavily defended.
German police detained an Iranian suspected of planning an ‘Islamist-motivated’ attack. No further details available.
Pakistan –
Strong rumors about reports that Pakistan is essentially heading towards an imminent economic disaster unless some help comes from friendly as reportedly, the dollar reserves with the State Bank are now below USD $ 5Bn.
OBSERVATION – Borderline RUMINT except that Pakistan is in serous economic chaos. This is where Saudi Arabia could leverage the situation to purchase some nuke warheads as a counter to Iran.
Very destabilizing when a nuclear armed country enters this realm. A disaster will also generate considerably more social chaos and openings for radical Islamic sects to start controlling areas of the country.
Mexico -
The Sinaloa drug cartel has issued the Mexican government a terrifying ultimatum to release the son of El Chapo within 72 hours - or else suffer utter chaos.
OBSERVATION – Mexico is in the midst of a war against the cartels that heated up last year. Cartel vs cartel violence has also ratcheted up starting last year. In general, it is in a near state of narco-terrorist civil war.
Misc of Note –
Weather watch continues for kalifornia as another storm hits the state. San Fran recorded its largest 10 day rain amounts since 1881 (iirc) Disaster would be if an air mass warm enough to throw substantial rain on top of the 175% of average snow in the sierras.
At least three more atmospheric river storms are set to hit California from this weekend through next week. The FOX Forecast Center warned that it’s becoming increasingly likely that the flooding from the strongest storm will be far more serious than anything experienced so far.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Hype grows for the the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2023 taking place January 16-20, 2023 in Davos, Switzerland. I’ve posted their announced agenda in previous posts.
A harbinger of things to come in the new global order, increasing numbers of criminal prosecutions in various countries in Europe for anyone being vocal and opposing the Trans – tyranny. Norway for instance added “gender identity and gender expression” as protected categories under hate speech laws. Recently Christina Ellingsen was accused under these laws and, if found guilty of “transphobia,” could face three years in prison.
OBSERVATION – Europe is in general a lot longer distance down the socialist trail than the US, but we are working hard to catch up. The academic world is totally within the vice grip of the Tranny terrorists and any contrary views grounds for losing their job. Many other fields facing the same. It is only a matter of a short time that opposing LGBT and tranny tyranny will yield criminal penalties here.
Lützerath, in western Germany, is the focal point of the green agenda versus economic realities for the German people. The town is to be destroyed to permit the expansion of a coal mine. With Germany facing massive energy shortfalls, they’ve been forced to continue use of coal. Environmental extremists vow to prevent the expansion claiming it violates the limits of the Paris agreement.
OBSERVATION – one of the environmental protestors claimed that “People are dying now from the climate crisis,”. In that she has it backwards, people are dying from the lack of power and heat, not any pseudo-global warming.
Economy –
During an interview with CBS News on Friday, Bank of America Chief Economist Michael Gapen stated that it “will probably take two years, if not three years to get inflation back down to the Fed’s desired 2% level.”
Gapen said, “I think the numbers tell us that the labor market is still quite hot. The unemployment rate number that you mentioned is the lowest we’ve seen since 1968. So, it’s about a five-decade low. 223,000 jobs added in the month of December. That pace has come down, but that’s a robust number in any normal expansion. So, I think job-seekers right now are probably still meeting with a lot of success and I think labor demand remains exceptionally strong.”
He added, “225,000 jobs or so per month is about twice as much job growth as I think the Fed would like to see.”
OBSERVATION – That would imply 2-3 years of economy damaging high interest rates and unemployment going up to the 5+% level. That kind of drain on the economic resiliency of the country following the devastating wuhan shutdowns could create a myriad of economic difficulties and hardships, including diving into a deep recession or even depression.
Numbers are in and biden’s cancellation of the Keystone pipeline cost the economy about 59,468 jobs, and $9.61 Billion in GDP.
OBSERVATION – Keystone was one of the first rounds fired against the petroleum industry by the biden regime and its desires to kill the industry for replacement by ‘green’ resources.
California’s government is facing an estimated budget deficit of $24 billion this year, a stark reversal from the record-setting surpluses that the state saw in recent years which comes amid ongoing inflation and heightened fears of a looming recession.
California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO), which provides state officials with nonpartisan budget forecasts, warned in a report that the state faces a projected $24 billion deficit in 2023-24 mainly because tax revenues are about $41 billion lower than expected.
OBSERVATION – Before we cheer about this, remember that the consequences will ripple outwards across the nation in one way or another. IIRC just last year kalifornia was boasting of a $96 billion SURPLUS.
Invasion of Illegals –
Biden at a show visit in El Paso.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden will make his first official visit to the U.S.-Mexico border in his more than 50 years in Washington. El Paso had to literally use bulldozers in some places to ‘sanitize’ areas of biden’s visit.
CW2/Domestic violence –
A poll was conducted by SurveyUSA in eight states, that included Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, and Hawaii. Support for exiting the union polled highest in Texas, with regular voters showing 66% support and voters who vote only in presidential elections showing 63%. This sentiment is shared in varying degrees in other Red States. On the other end of the spectrum, blue states are showing more of an inclination to separate as well. This trend shows no sign of stopping as the partisan divide grows larger and more volatile.
OBSERVATION - Momentum grows for a split of some kind. Some desire an amicable divorce, but reality is such a split will result in power loss to the Marxist democrats in DC as well as in blue states/regions. They may not be so willing to release power.
IN RELATED – last weeks 3-day vote-a-thon for Speaker has by some been related to the last marathon Speaker fight which preceeded the start of the Civil War. Some of the comparisons are not too valid other than the apparent fact that the partisan divide is growing between red and blue and a split of some kind is on the horizion.
The J6 committee “accidentally “ released the SSNs and other personal data on about 2000 individuals who were Trump supporters.
OBSERVATION – “Accidental” releases of personal information by leftists in govt is an ongoing and increasing issue. Very simple to get info out to target individuals under the guise of an ‘accident’, knowing full well that there will be no consequences for the action. Those who posted the information knew full well that it was in violation of the Privacy Act of 1974,
Kalifornia did a similar ‘accidental’ release of CCW permit holders a couple years ago.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitter keeps releasing files, now up to 14 IIRC.
POLITICAL FRONT –
With the speakership settled, now the interparty fighting and maneuvering begins. Many house republicans are looking for pay back on democrats for their baseless investigations over the past years.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.
Indicators –
- For the second time in less than a month, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is holding large-scale exercises in the waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan. The military exercise near Taiwan will be on the eve of visits by German and Lithuanian lawmakers to the self-governed island. The drill has been described as countering “separatist forces.”
The training exercise was announced on Sunday by Colonel Shi Yi, the spokesman for the Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). He said it would involve sea and airspace maneuvers around Taiwan, focusing on land strikes and amphibious assault action.
The exercise was “designed to test the joint combat capabilities of the troops and resolutely counteract the provocative actions of external forces and ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists,”a statement said.
OBSERVATION – The Ukraine example had tens of thousands of Russian troops deploy to the borders of Ukraine under the cover of “exercises”. China will likely employ a similar tactic, bringing troops in and just leaving them there after the exercise is ended - growing the force bit by bit. Ramping up of military exercises and associated force build up all point to potential action by China.
- China’s warplane incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone nearly doubled in 2022, with a surge in fighter jet and bomber sorties as Beijing intensified threats towards the island democracy.
China sent 1,727 planes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in 2022, according to an AFP database based on daily updates released by Taipei’s defence ministry.
That compares with around 960 incursions in 2021 and 380 in 2020.
Fighter jet sorties more than doubled from 538 in 2021 to 1,241 while incursions by bombers, including the nuclear-capable H6, went from 60 to 101.
OBSERVATION – This increase in air activity – in addition to increasing naval incursions show that China is working out how to manage large numbers of sorties and naval missions that will be necessary in the event of an invasion. Further, the necessity of air force and navy coordination for successful operations.
Japan –
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida began a week-long visit to Europe today. The visit, reportedly intended to strengthen military ties between Japan and the E.U., will conclude Friday with a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden. Kishida is scheduled to visit the leaders of France, Italy, Britain, and Canada.
OBSERVATION – Continuing effort by Japan to ready itself for an expected move on Taiwan that may also include Chinese attempts to seize Japan’s nearby southern islands.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
RUMINT-
According to the Daily Mail, the head of military intelligence in Ukraine believes that Vladimir Putin “is terminally ill with cancer”…
Vladimir Putin is terminally ill with cancer and will die very soon, Ukraine’s military intelligence head has claimed.
Kyrylo Budanov, without providing evidence, said he knows the Russian despot’s death is imminent due to an ongoing illness from cancer.
When asked how soon Putin might die, Budanov stated that he thinks that it will come “very fast”…
Asked when he thinks Putin’s death will come, Budanov said that he thought it would be very soon.
‘I think very fast. I hope.’
Speculation about Putin’s health has been ongoing for several years. The 70-year-old Russian leader has been rumoured to be suffering from cancer, Parkinson’s Disease and numerous other ailments.
OBSERVATION – This rumor has been around for a while, but has increased since the start of the war. Putin’s public appearances have done little to calm the rumors, clearly showing signs of physical weakness and medical related problems. The concern is who will replace him if he dies during this war? Kremlin observers note that the likely candidates are very much more warmongering than putin has been.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
- Military enlistment office was set on fire in Bratsk, Russia.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant changes on the battlefield, Russia continues attacks to capture Bahkmut and lands west – northwest of Donetsk. Russian artillery focused on the Svatove – Donetsk line in eastern Ukraine, widely scattered and sporadic elsewhere.
Ukraine launched another round of HIMARS strikes on Russian troop concentrations, command posts and logistical sites in the occupied territories.
OUTLOOK ——
Same old, same old. Russia continues to press attacks against Bahkmut and near Donetsk. Weather is still delaying any winter offensives by either side, although the trend seems to be for more subfreezing temperatures.
Russia is about due for another round of missile/drone attacks on Ukraine, probably within the next few days.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Belarus -
Ministry of Defense of Belarus announced new drill with Russian troops, aviation and air defense at all airfields and firing ranges across Belarus starting January 16th until February 1st.
Other OSINT observers/analysts noting increased movement of Russian soldiers and equipment into the region. The exercise areas are concentrated in the center and southwest of the country. No reportable formation of new maneuver units and the amount of armor and equipment into Belarus is far less than Belarus has contributed to Russia over the past 10 months.
Most dangerous course of action at this time is Russia taking remaining Belarus equipment for an attack southward. This may not be acceptable to the Belarus military nor narrative that they are facing invasion by NATO elements – primarily Poland.
Pakistan –
Pakistan’s port city of Gwadar, a key link in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, was shut down by authorities as part of a crackdown after weeks of protests in the city.
The shutdown comes as Pakistan’s capital of Islamabad faced food riots over the weekend. Pakistan’s finance minister is currently meeting with International Monetary Fund officials in Geneva in an attempt to get $1.1 billion in relief funds released to the country. Currently, Pakistan only has enough foreign exchange reserves to cover one month of imports.
OBSERVATION – Continued economic meltdown threatens the stability of this nuclear power and increases potential for nuclear systems to be compromised.
Iran –
Tehran, Iran Locals in the capital’s Sattarkhand district are continuing the nationwide protests against the government on the 115th night of the uprising. Other protests reported in several other locations.
Iran is also making preparations to execute more protestors.
Central / South America General-
Supporters of Bolsonaro broke through barriers & entered the Brazilian congress in Brasilia. Luiz Lula da Silva, a left-wing politician who was previously imprisoned for corruption, was inaugurated last week after narrowly defeating Bolsonaro.
Military police were observed accompanying the Bolsonarista insurrection on its way to the Three Powers Plaza in Brasilia. Some policemen of Rio de Janeiro refuse to disperse Bolsonaro supporters and clearly express their support for the protesters.
The protests were broken up by the end of the day with hundreds arrested. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva says perpetrators will be found and punished after supporters of Brazilian far-right ex-President Jair Bolsonaro stormed Congress.
Trump is now being blamed for the riots in Brazil over the weekend.
OBSERVATION – This appears to be the start of a cyclical action-reaction- re-reaction. Crackdown on Bolsonaro supporters will create pushback by supporters (and more protests) instigating another crackdown. Lather, rinse, repeat.
What should be of great concern for da Silva is that in many locations the police marched in support – this sets up a potential civil war conflict scenario as pro-Bolsonario regions set up their own shadow govt and the govt may try to crack down – resulting in a shooting battle.
So far the military has been on the sidelines, not ready to step in on one side or the other.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Hype grows for the the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2023 taking place January 16-20, 2023 in Davos, Switzerland. I’ve posted their announced agenda in previous posts.
A harbinger of things to come in the new global order, increasing numbers of criminal prosecutions in various countries in Europe for anyone being vocal and opposing the Trans – tyranny. Norway for instance added “gender identity and gender expression” as protected categories under hate speech laws. Recently Christina Ellingsen was accused under these laws and, if found guilty of “transphobia,” could face three years in prison.
OBSERVATION – Europe is in general a lot longer distance down the socialist trail than the US, but we are working hard to catch up. The academic world is totally within the vice grip of the Tranny terrorists and any contrary views grounds for losing their job. Many other fields facing the same. It is only a matter of a short time that opposing LGBT and tranny tyranny will yield criminal penalties here.
Lützerath, in western Germany, is the focal point of the green agenda versus economic realities for the German people. The town is to be destroyed to permit the expansion of a coal mine. With Germany facing massive energy shortfalls, they’ve been forced to continue use of coal. Environmental extremists vow to prevent the expansion claiming it violates the limits of the Paris agreement.
OBSERVATION – one of the environmental protestors claimed that “People are dying now from the climate crisis,”. In that she has it backwards, people are dying from the lack of power and heat, not any pseudo-global warming.
Economy –
During an interview with CBS News on Friday, Bank of America Chief Economist Michael Gapen stated that it “will probably take two years, if not three years to get inflation back down to the Fed’s desired 2% level.”
Gapen said, “I think the numbers tell us that the labor market is still quite hot. The unemployment rate number that you mentioned is the lowest we’ve seen since 1968. So, it’s about a five-decade low. 223,000 jobs added in the month of December. That pace has come down, but that’s a robust number in any normal expansion. So, I think job-seekers right now are probably still meeting with a lot of success and I think labor demand remains exceptionally strong.”
He added, “225,000 jobs or so per month is about twice as much job growth as I think the Fed would like to see.”
OBSERVATION – That would imply 2-3 years of economy damaging high interest rates and unemployment going up to the 5+% level. That kind of drain on the economic resiliency of the country following the devastating wuhan shutdowns could create a myriad of economic difficulties and hardships, including diving into a deep recession or even depression.
Numbers are in and biden’s cancellation of the Keystone pipeline cost the economy about 59,468 jobs, and $9.61 Billion in GDP.
OBSERVATION – Keystone was one of the first rounds fired against the petroleum industry by the biden regime and its desires to kill the industry for replacement by ‘green’ resources.
California’s government is facing an estimated budget deficit of $24 billion this year, a stark reversal from the record-setting surpluses that the state saw in recent years which comes amid ongoing inflation and heightened fears of a looming recession.
California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO), which provides state officials with nonpartisan budget forecasts, warned in a report that the state faces a projected $24 billion deficit in 2023-24 mainly because tax revenues are about $41 billion lower than expected.
OBSERVATION – Before we cheer about this, remember that the consequences will ripple outwards across the nation in one way or another. IIRC just last year kalifornia was boasting of a $96 billion SURPLUS.
Invasion of Illegals –
Biden at a show visit in El Paso.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden will make his first official visit to the U.S.-Mexico border in his more than 50 years in Washington. El Paso had to literally use bulldozers in some places to ‘sanitize’ areas of biden’s visit.
CW2/Domestic violence –
A poll was conducted by SurveyUSA in eight states, that included Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, and Hawaii. Support for exiting the union polled highest in Texas, with regular voters showing 66% support and voters who vote only in presidential elections showing 63%. This sentiment is shared in varying degrees in other Red States. On the other end of the spectrum, blue states are showing more of an inclination to separate as well. This trend shows no sign of stopping as the partisan divide grows larger and more volatile.
OBSERVATION - Momentum grows for a split of some kind. Some desire an amicable divorce, but reality is such a split will result in power loss to the Marxist democrats in DC as well as in blue states/regions. They may not be so willing to release power.
IN RELATED – last weeks 3-day vote-a-thon for Speaker has by some been related to the last marathon Speaker fight which preceeded the start of the Civil War. Some of the comparisons are not too valid other than the apparent fact that the partisan divide is growing between red and blue and a split of some kind is on the horizion.
The J6 committee “accidentally “ released the SSNs and other personal data on about 2000 individuals who were Trump supporters.
OBSERVATION – “Accidental” releases of personal information by leftists in govt is an ongoing and increasing issue. Very simple to get info out to target individuals under the guise of an ‘accident’, knowing full well that there will be no consequences for the action. Those who posted the information knew full well that it was in violation of the Privacy Act of 1974,
Kalifornia did a similar ‘accidental’ release of CCW permit holders a couple years ago.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitter keeps releasing files, now up to 14 IIRC.
POLITICAL FRONT –
With the speakership settled, now the interparty fighting and maneuvering begins. Many house republicans are looking for pay back on democrats for their baseless investigations over the past years.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.
Indicators –
- For the second time in less than a month, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is holding large-scale exercises in the waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan. The military exercise near Taiwan will be on the eve of visits by German and Lithuanian lawmakers to the self-governed island. The drill has been described as countering “separatist forces.”
The training exercise was announced on Sunday by Colonel Shi Yi, the spokesman for the Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). He said it would involve sea and airspace maneuvers around Taiwan, focusing on land strikes and amphibious assault action.
The exercise was “designed to test the joint combat capabilities of the troops and resolutely counteract the provocative actions of external forces and ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists,”a statement said.
OBSERVATION – The Ukraine example had tens of thousands of Russian troops deploy to the borders of Ukraine under the cover of “exercises”. China will likely employ a similar tactic, bringing troops in and just leaving them there after the exercise is ended - growing the force bit by bit. Ramping up of military exercises and associated force build up all point to potential action by China.
- China’s warplane incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone nearly doubled in 2022, with a surge in fighter jet and bomber sorties as Beijing intensified threats towards the island democracy.
China sent 1,727 planes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in 2022, according to an AFP database based on daily updates released by Taipei’s defence ministry.
That compares with around 960 incursions in 2021 and 380 in 2020.
Fighter jet sorties more than doubled from 538 in 2021 to 1,241 while incursions by bombers, including the nuclear-capable H6, went from 60 to 101.
OBSERVATION – This increase in air activity – in addition to increasing naval incursions show that China is working out how to manage large numbers of sorties and naval missions that will be necessary in the event of an invasion. Further, the necessity of air force and navy coordination for successful operations.
Japan –
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida began a week-long visit to Europe today. The visit, reportedly intended to strengthen military ties between Japan and the E.U., will conclude Friday with a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden. Kishida is scheduled to visit the leaders of France, Italy, Britain, and Canada.
OBSERVATION – Continuing effort by Japan to ready itself for an expected move on Taiwan that may also include Chinese attempts to seize Japan’s nearby southern islands.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
RUMINT-
According to the Daily Mail, the head of military intelligence in Ukraine believes that Vladimir Putin “is terminally ill with cancer”…
Vladimir Putin is terminally ill with cancer and will die very soon, Ukraine’s military intelligence head has claimed.
Kyrylo Budanov, without providing evidence, said he knows the Russian despot’s death is imminent due to an ongoing illness from cancer.
When asked how soon Putin might die, Budanov stated that he thinks that it will come “very fast”…
Asked when he thinks Putin’s death will come, Budanov said that he thought it would be very soon.
‘I think very fast. I hope.’
Speculation about Putin’s health has been ongoing for several years. The 70-year-old Russian leader has been rumoured to be suffering from cancer, Parkinson’s Disease and numerous other ailments.
OBSERVATION – This rumor has been around for a while, but has increased since the start of the war. Putin’s public appearances have done little to calm the rumors, clearly showing signs of physical weakness and medical related problems. The concern is who will replace him if he dies during this war? Kremlin observers note that the likely candidates are very much more warmongering than putin has been.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
- Military enlistment office was set on fire in Bratsk, Russia.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant changes on the battlefield, Russia continues attacks to capture Bahkmut and lands west – northwest of Donetsk. Russian artillery focused on the Svatove – Donetsk line in eastern Ukraine, widely scattered and sporadic elsewhere.
Ukraine launched another round of HIMARS strikes on Russian troop concentrations, command posts and logistical sites in the occupied territories.
OUTLOOK ——
Same old, same old. Russia continues to press attacks against Bahkmut and near Donetsk. Weather is still delaying any winter offensives by either side, although the trend seems to be for more subfreezing temperatures.
Russia is about due for another round of missile/drone attacks on Ukraine, probably within the next few days.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Belarus -
Ministry of Defense of Belarus announced new drill with Russian troops, aviation and air defense at all airfields and firing ranges across Belarus starting January 16th until February 1st.
Other OSINT observers/analysts noting increased movement of Russian soldiers and equipment into the region. The exercise areas are concentrated in the center and southwest of the country. No reportable formation of new maneuver units and the amount of armor and equipment into Belarus is far less than Belarus has contributed to Russia over the past 10 months.
Most dangerous course of action at this time is Russia taking remaining Belarus equipment for an attack southward. This may not be acceptable to the Belarus military nor narrative that they are facing invasion by NATO elements – primarily Poland.
Pakistan –
Pakistan’s port city of Gwadar, a key link in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, was shut down by authorities as part of a crackdown after weeks of protests in the city.
The shutdown comes as Pakistan’s capital of Islamabad faced food riots over the weekend. Pakistan’s finance minister is currently meeting with International Monetary Fund officials in Geneva in an attempt to get $1.1 billion in relief funds released to the country. Currently, Pakistan only has enough foreign exchange reserves to cover one month of imports.
OBSERVATION – Continued economic meltdown threatens the stability of this nuclear power and increases potential for nuclear systems to be compromised.
Iran –
Tehran, Iran Locals in the capital’s Sattarkhand district are continuing the nationwide protests against the government on the 115th night of the uprising. Other protests reported in several other locations.
Iran is also making preparations to execute more protestors.
Central / South America General-
Supporters of Bolsonaro broke through barriers & entered the Brazilian congress in Brasilia. Luiz Lula da Silva, a left-wing politician who was previously imprisoned for corruption, was inaugurated last week after narrowly defeating Bolsonaro.
Military police were observed accompanying the Bolsonarista insurrection on its way to the Three Powers Plaza in Brasilia. Some policemen of Rio de Janeiro refuse to disperse Bolsonaro supporters and clearly express their support for the protesters.
The protests were broken up by the end of the day with hundreds arrested. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva says perpetrators will be found and punished after supporters of Brazilian far-right ex-President Jair Bolsonaro stormed Congress.
Trump is now being blamed for the riots in Brazil over the weekend.
OBSERVATION – This appears to be the start of a cyclical action-reaction- re-reaction. Crackdown on Bolsonaro supporters will create pushback by supporters (and more protests) instigating another crackdown. Lather, rinse, repeat.
What should be of great concern for da Silva is that in many locations the police marched in support – this sets up a potential civil war conflict scenario as pro-Bolsonario regions set up their own shadow govt and the govt may try to crack down – resulting in a shooting battle.
So far the military has been on the sidelines, not ready to step in on one side or the other.