Globalism / Great Reset –
Regulators advised banks and other financial institutions to avoid cryptocurrencies, a warning that comes after the implosion of digital asset company FTX and deliberations over a possible central bank digital currency in the United States.
A joint statement from the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currencysaid that the nascent sector is characterized by “significant volatility” and possible fraud, warning executives of scams, legal uncertainties, and contagion between firms rocked by recent tumult in cryptocurrency markets.
OBSERVATION – Crypto has to be killed as an alternative currency so that the WEF approved digital currency and be introduced and take over. The turbulence over the past year and in specific, the FTX scandal most likely reflect WEF insider work to discredit and destabilize crypto in advance of CBDC.
Wuhan virus –
See China - wuhan breakout below.
People who suffered from myocarditis after receiving an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine were found to have persistently higher levels of circulating spike protein compared to those who also received an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine but did not develop myocarditis, according to findings from a new study.
The study, published Jan. 4 in the Journal of the American Heart Association, sought to understand better the immune profiles—also referred to as immunoprofiles—of people who suffered from myocarditis after receiving an mRNA-based vaccine.
The researchers flagged what they called a “notable finding,” which was that “markedly elevated levels of full-length spike protein (33.9±22.4 pg/mL), unbound by antibodies, were detected in the plasma of individuals with postvaccine myocarditis, whereas no free spike was detected in asymptomatic vaccinated control subjects (unpaired t test; P<0.0001).”
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.061025
OBSERVATION – More evidence that the jabs are dangerous and should have been vetted more thoroughly.
Economy –
The UN’S Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) food price index, which tracks international prices of the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 143.7 points in 2022, up 14.3 percent from 2021, and the highest since records started in 1990, the agency said on Friday.
The index had already gained 28 percent in 2021 from the previous year as the world economy recovered from the impact of the pandemic.
OBSERVATION – They expect prices to continue to remain high due to significant market disruptions, adverse weather, high fertilizer and fuel costs in addition to growing demand.
Southern California residents, get ready for a severe case of sticker shock as your natural gas bills across the region soar more than double this winter, according to the region’s two chief utility companies.
Southern California Gas Company — a subsidiary of Sempra Energy that serves more than 21.8 million customers in Central and Southern California — along with Long Beach Utilities, the city’s independent gas provider, recently warned customers to prepare for unavoidable increases in their gas bills this month.
“There’s no easy way to put this: January bills are likely to be shockingly high,” SoCalGas said in a Thursday, Dec. 29 announcement. “As a result, our customers can expect to see higher gas bills in the coming weeks.”
Long Beach Utilities put out a similar statement on Wednesday, Jan. 4.
SoCalGas rates are expected to more than double over the cost of last winter. If a customer’s natural gas bill totaled $130 last winter, for example, that household can expect a $315 bill this winter, according to the gas company. And the average Long Beach single-family residential customer should prepare for an increase of $200 or more on their bill, that city’s utility said.
OBSERVATION – Kalifornia has natural gas reserves but refuses to allow them to be developed. This is a scenario that is playing out all across the country. People will be screaming about how high their bills are and how evil the utilities are – but they are having to deal with economic realities while the customer is directing their anger towards the wrong entity.
One other note – the economic ignorance is not just limited to kalifornia. Last month here in my corner of the Redoubt people were crying over how much more their utility bills were. They didn’t have the common sense to read the bill, look at just how much energy (Kwh and therms) they used in comparison to the average temperature for the billing period. Use twice the amount – your bill will double.
Reversing recent declines, the percentage of the population that is either working or actively looking for work increased slightly to 62.3 percent in December, up one-tenth of a point from November, and four basis points higher than the 61.9 percent in December 2021.
In its final report for 2022, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics counted a record 159,244,000 employed Americans in December, an increase of 717,000 from last month’s 158,527,000 (revised number); and the number of Americans counted as not in the labor force dropped below the hundred million level to 99,879,000.
The unemployment rate has remained in the 3.5-3.7 percent range since March.
OBSERVATION – The labor market is one of the factors the Fed uses to see if their prime rate increases are working or not. This report seems to indicate that the rate increases are not working, given that the Fed is anticipating a move towards unemployment in the 5% range. This increases the likelihood of more rate increases in the coming months.
IMHO, the increase in the labor force may well reflect the impact of inflation, drawing many back into the job market by necessity.
Invasion of Illegals –
On Thursday, the president announced he was expanding a “legal immigration” plan including using an existing parole system to allow an additional 360,000 illegal foreign nationals to be released into the United States. Biden announced that part of his plan to expand “safe, orderly, and humane processing” for illegal foreign nationals included expanding a federal parole system to allow an additional 30,000 people a month to remain in the U.S. from Venezuela, Haiti, Cuba and Nicaragua – 360,000 in total for the year.
Biden made the announcement after a record 68,044 Cubans and Nicaraguans and 6,232 Venezuelans were apprehended in November illegally entering the U.S., according to CBP data; and after more than 600,000 foreign nationals from all over the world were apprehended or evaded capture in November and December 2022 combined, and a record 3.3 million were apprehended in fiscal 2022.
The change is already being challenged in court by a lawsuit brought by Florida, arguing the administration’s abuse of it is illegal. Moody argues the administration’s misuse of the parole system is unconstitutional and violates federal law established by Congress. The majority of people being released into the U.S. by the Biden administration don’t have a legal basis under current asylum law, the practice doesn’t comply with mandatory detention laws and is illegal, Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody maintains.
OBSERVATION – So typical of the democrat regime, seeking cracks and loopholes to continue to press their agenda. Biden et al knows this will be tied up in courts for years to come and even a restraining order(s) will be ignored by rephrasing some of the EOs.
CW2/Domestic violence –
A new California gun law allowing private citizens to sue manufacturers and retailers for selling banned firearms went into effect this year.
California’s new regulations give private citizens the ability to sue anyone who imports, distributes, manufactures, or sells assault firearms, homemade weapons, ghost guns, or .50 BMP rifles. The law, Senate Bill (SB) 1327, also restricts the sale of firearms to anyone under 21 years old.
These restrictions are already enforced by California; however, this new law allows citizens to sue violators for at least $10,000.
This is modeled after the Texas Heartbeat Act which allows private citizens to sue anyone involved in providing abortions after a doctor has detected a fetal heartbeat. In that law, citizens can file lawsuits against doctors, clinics, or anyone involved in the abortion.
OBSERVATION – Another angle of attack against Second Amendment rights. Tyrants cannot execute full control of their agenda as long as the citizenry is armed.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The first season’s congressional soap opera saw McCarthy finally getting the votes necessary to be elected to the Speakership on the 15th attempt. McCarthy got 216 votes, a bare majority that was lower than the normal 218 votes needed because all six of his remaining GOP opponents relented and voted “present.”
OBSERVATION – This promises to be only the first battle between the conservative caucus and the more moderate (some say drifting left of center) eGOP. Some good concessions were forced out of McCarthy – and done in writing. If this standoff hadn’t been initiated, it would have been business as usual with little difference between the Marxist democrat control and the incoming eGOP.
Cyber Warfare –
Word is just coming out about a Russian hacker group called Cold River who targeted three different nuclear research labs in the United States between the months of August and September of 2022. During the months the attacks were carried out, Russian President Vladimir Putin had been voicing Russia’s willingness to use nuclear weapons in response to threats to its territory.
The three nuclear research labs that were targeted were: Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) according to a Reuters Report citing internet records.
The internet records that Reuters cited showed login pages that had been faked for each laboratory, as well as emails from hackers sent to nuclear scientists at each location attempting to get them to disclose their login passwords.
OBSERVATION - These Russian groups operated with the tacit approval of the Russian govt, much like Wagner Group does.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.
Contraindicator –
Continues to be the wuhan infection situation. Impact to the civilian population has to be hitting the military equally hard. However, this doesn’t necessarly stop the initiation of a ‘soft blockaide’, but does challenge a stronger action as the national leadership is having to address the wuhan problem – read more below.
Chinese government claims fewer than two dozen people have died nationwide during the massive coronavirus outbreak sweeping the country, but the true number is believed to be in the thousands and could be heading into the millions. Increasing numbers of countries around the world are instituting travel restrictions on individuals from China.
Going along with this are other reports that with crematoriums overwhelmed with the dead, ome families are resorting to amateur cremations in the streets.
OBSERVATION – China holds close its actual numbers, but the death toll is most likely much larger than a couple dozen.
Now, does this pose a threat to the US as the initial breakout of wuhan from China did? Too early to tell. Given a 1 billion population and an estimated 50-70% currently infected, even a small percentage of mortalities adds up to a lot of people. Not enough information at this time to tell if this is the start of a new plandemic that the medical community and govt tyrannists have been clamoring for.
Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban signed their first international agreement with a Chinese petroleum company Thursday to extract and develop oil reserves in the country’s north
OBSERVATION – China is aggressively working to secure oil, gas and coal supplies that can bypass any potential sanctions at a bargan basement price. This is part of their long term, strategic plan to ensure energy supply.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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A temporary unilateral Russian ceasefire ordered by Putin during Orthodox Christmas has not even remotely been held by Russia, as fighting has continued in eastern Ukraine.
Economic Impact – Putin’s recently released plan to update the Russian army in the face of its awful debut in Ukraine is expected to far exceed the nation’s economic capability to accomplish it in the time frame laid out by putin.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing. However, due to heat retention by soils, it will take a prolonged sub-freezing period to render the soils frozen enough for maneuver by tanks/armor.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No sign of a ‘cease fire’ as scattered artillery and Russian ground attacks continued along the Donbas front. Many didn’t expect Russia to execute the ceasefire anyway, given its track record of saying one thing and doing another.
Only other thing of note was increased Russian shelling along the border north - northeast of Khariv. Activity here has been sporadic over the past couple months.
Fighting around Kreminna has reportedly intensified in forested areas surrounding the city. Both sides working hard to call in and adjust artillery fire, having to rely heavily on drones to adjust fire.
OUTLOOK ——
Need I say it ? No significant changes on the ground are expected in the near future. Incoming packages of modern western armor and tanks are anticipated to have some impacts for Ukraine, but there is a time delay due to training necessary. It is uncertain if the equipment and associated troops will be tactically ready in time for the anticipated start of the potential winter offensive in the next few weeks. It is unlikely that Ukraine will hold off that offensive based on waiting for this equipment to be available, they have done quite well with the Soviet style systems and modern artillery they’ve been provided so far.
Belarus-watch continues, and so far the concensus is that the current rounds of training between Belarus and Russian forces have helped Belarus’ defensive capabilities. However, being able to operate offensively in the medium to high intensity environment that is Ukraine is still far from being obtained.
Russian / Belarus troop movements still seem to be more focused on the southwestern corner of the nation versus the assembly areas necessary for a second push towards Kyiv. Trainloads of equipment continue to be primarily support type vehicles, and limited armor/tanks. Nothing close to what was observed in the build up to the start of war last February.
Belarus -
See Ukraine Outlook above for assessment.
Iran –
Iran executed two more people for participating in protests. In doing so, they are creating more martyrs and refueling the protests.
Iraq -
The Iraqi supreme court has issued an arrest warrant for former U.S. President Donald Trump for the assassination on Iraqi soil of Iran’s Quds Force commander, Qasem Soleimani, Iraqi News reports, citing a Baghdad news agency.
The warrant was issued on Thursday in connection both with the killing of Soleimani and of another Iraqi militia leader, chief of staff of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq–both of whom were killed in a drone strike in January 2020 near the Baghdad airport. That assassination operation led to Iranian strikes on the Aia Al-Assad U.S. base in Iraq.
The arrest warrant charges Trump with premeditated murder. While the warrant is clearly symbolic, a conviction of this nature carries the death penalty.
OBSERVATION – These courts are slanted strongly in favor of Iran, which recently held ceremonies of remembrance for Soleimani.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
See oil deal with China above
Mexico -
The situation is still tense in Culiacan following the capture/arrest of the infamous gang kingpin El Chapo‘s son Ovidio. El Chapo is currently serving life in prison in the US for trafficking hundreds of tons of drugs into the United States over a 25-year period.
Mexican courts have put a temporary halt to his extradition to the US pending his appeal. Violence continues in other cities in the region. Overall, however, it appears that govt forces have the upper hand.
OBSERVATION – I would avoid Mexico at all costs.
Economy –
Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan warned Americans that an economic recession is the “most likely outcome,” as the central bank continues to tighten monetary policy to fight inflation. Former New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley reinforced Greenspan’s claims, saying that a U.S. recession is “likely” forthcoming because the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are inducing one.
According to Chief Investment Officer for Wealth and Investment Management Darrell Cronk “And keep in mind, it’s not just interest rate hikes or cuts for that matter. It’s the combination of the money, supply is tightening, the stronger U.S. dollar has put pressure on financial conditions. Bank reserves are running off. So there’s a whole myriad of other elements that are also conspiring to tighten financial conditions simultaneously,”
OBSERVATION - More and more it is coming to when – not if – the recession hits. The Fed has only one tool – a hammer – and as stated by Cronk - there is a “whole myriad of other elements” coming into play.
Invasion of Illegals –
President Joe Biden satisfied long-standing calls from conservatives by deciding to visit the U.S.-Mexico border in El Paso, Texas, over the weekend.
The visit comes alongside a host of new immigration measures designed to stem the record flow of illegal crossings. While border hawks remain skeptical, the move also comes with the risk of alienating Biden’s more progressive supporters.
OBSERVATION – The democrat mayor of El Paso has been working hard to get the thousands of illegals camping out on the city streets removed so as to present a very sanitized picture to biden. Biden’s recent announcements on border control are sounding very similar to Trump’s. problem is it is too little, too late. And ANY kind of border control will throw the progressive Marxists in congress into a tizzy.
Biden announced Wednesday that his administration is expanding a program requiring Venezuelans to apply for asylum through a cell phone app without crossing the border to migrants from Cuba, Nicaragua, and Haiti.
Biden said that there are a number of legal pathways for migrants to come to the United States “under our existing laws.”
Biden said that despite these new requirements, Congress still needs to pass a comprehensive immigration law.
OBSERVATION – it has been far easier for biden to just let them pour across the border than follow the ‘existing law’. Fact is the existing law is a bane to the progressives who want no law at all. The only comprehensive immigration law they will accept is complete and full, open ended amnesty.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden is readying the launch of his 2024 reelection campaign, according to The Hill website. The Hill reported that “multiple sources” have told their reporters that “the president is planning to make his intentions to run for a second White House term public in the coming weeks, likely in February, around the State of the Union.”
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
The White House pressed Facebook to censor Fox News host Tucker Carlson for saying “vaccines” “don’t work,” according to a document released by Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry of Louisiana.
Landry along with Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt sued the Biden administration in federal court on May 5, claiming that members of the administration colluded with social media companies to suppress debate on the 2020 presidential election, the COVID-19 pandemic and other issues. The court ordered the Biden administration to turn over communications between officials and the tech companies in July.
OBSERVATION – No way around this – this act is grossly unconstitutional.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Russia’s bombing of regions in eastern Ukraine killed at least two people overnight, local officials said on Sunday, after Moscow ended a self-declared Christmas ceasefire and vowed to push on with combat until it reaches a victory over its neighbor.
NOTE – no one expected Russia to keep its word on this cease fire. It was only for public consumption in Russia.
RUMINT-
Unconfirmed reports that Moscow is preparing to call up an additional 500,000 conscripts in January, following the ‘partial mobilization’ which included 300,000 extra troops in October,
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
It appears a smaller Russian missile attack focusing on the Donbas region occurred overnight. Ukraine also struck targets deep into Russian occupied territories as well.
Solda has been the recent forcus on Russia’s effort to encircle Bakhmut from the north. Russia claims capture but Ukraine continues to hold most of the town. It has taken Russia five months to get this far in offensive, and the hardest fighting is yet before them.
OUTLOOK ——
With the potential for frozen soils coming, I expect to see some increase in fighting as both sides try to gain better positions for defense and offense.
Russia has reportedly been shipping a significant portion of the new conscripts to the Savatoe-Kreminna line. Will have to see if OSINT sources can clarify build up areas better – that will give a better view of potential Russian offensive areas and potential objectives.
Belarus -
Thus, at least 1400-1600 soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces could have been transferred to Vitsebsk, Belarus in the past two days.
OBSERVATION – Continuing to monitor the Russian build-up. Even if Belarus joins in an attack, the numbers just aren’t there for anything. The Russian movement into the country at this time seems to be primarily for training and not meeting the levels observed before the start of hostilities in Feb of last year.
Associated training has been in areas in the center of Belarus as well as the southwestern corner. This southwestern corner has a higher probability of being the invasion source as it could threaten western supplies coming in from Poland and the approaches to Kyiv are heavily defended.
German police detained an Iranian suspected of planning an ‘Islamist-motivated’ attack. No further details available.
Pakistan –
Strong rumors about reports that Pakistan is essentially heading towards an imminent economic disaster unless some help comes from friendly as reportedly, the dollar reserves with the State Bank are now below USD $ 5Bn.
OBSERVATION – Borderline RUMINT except that Pakistan is in serous economic chaos. This is where Saudi Arabia could leverage the situation to purchase some nuke warheads as a counter to Iran.
Very destabilizing when a nuclear armed country enters this realm. A disaster will also generate considerably more social chaos and openings for radical Islamic sects to start controlling areas of the country.
Mexico -
The Sinaloa drug cartel has issued the Mexican government a terrifying ultimatum to release the son of El Chapo within 72 hours - or else suffer utter chaos.
OBSERVATION – Mexico is in the midst of a war against the cartels that heated up last year. Cartel vs cartel violence has also ratcheted up starting last year. In general, it is in a near state of narco-terrorist civil war.
Misc of Note –
Weather watch continues for kalifornia as another storm hits the state. San Fran recorded its largest 10 day rain amounts since 1881 (iirc) Disaster would be if an air mass warm enough to throw substantial rain on top of the 175% of average snow in the sierras.
At least three more atmospheric river storms are set to hit California from this weekend through next week. The FOX Forecast Center warned that it’s becoming increasingly likely that the flooding from the strongest storm will be far more serious than anything experienced so far.