Posted on 12/09/2022 7:41:43 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
With respect, I find the prediction game to be quite interesting since it is positively Delphic as well as endemic in the media. Telling the future is the game the climate change -- once global cooling, then warming, then again cooling, then warming, and now the catch phrase -- as a meager degree or two a century -- or ten years -- can be foretold. Ditto with the new game of nitrogen to bolster the "predictable."
In the same way, the early game of "two weeks to flatten the curve" has turned into a complete scam for a well-sourced and easily calculated worldwide mortality rate of only about 0.084 percent. But the mortality rate, the ways in which the "event" would work out and all was a matter of reporting tomorrow's news today. And incorrectly.
The economic game of prediction -- ESG and surveillance and carbon footprint sorts of things -- is proving to be foolish beyond measure. And always tending towards totalitarian goals.
What is certain -- in spite of the cheerleading --is that much is currently unknowable. But that doesn't fire up the crowds. Or pry loose money. Ditto with the reparations game, already calculable to a "debt unpayable." But everyone is lining up....
I know I cannot predict. Who can? So many say they can. And then usually the next step is some form of "send money." Donate money. Go into debt for money. Tax more for money (as we watch the lunacy in the UK currently).
No man knows. So many say they do....
Best wishes. We all will need them....
That was a pretty silly, irrelevant, rambling post as far as the invasion of weak Ukraine by what was seen as the world’s 2nd strongest military goes.
The predictions, our expectations, versus what is happening and what is being revealed about the Russian military are astounding and have shocked the world.
“The price of Russia’s Urals grade, shipped from the Baltic port of Primorsk, was assessed at well below the price cap on Thursday, at just $41.59 per barrel according to Argus.”
Although the headline of the linked story was that Russia sold a cargo of ESPO Grade crude oil, from Russia’s Far East, above the price cap ($67), ESPO accounts for only a small proportion of Russia’s production. Buried in the story was the current sale price for Russia’s main oil export - Urals Grade. At just $41.59 per barrel, it is far below the $70 estimate that is the basis for Russia’s 2023 budget.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/4115053/posts?q=1&;page=63#54
ETCM: Those 3 explosions were pretty widely and evenly spaced.
Also, they were almost perfectly timed...not random secondary explosions.
The spacing and timing of the explosions lead me to believe they were perfectly executed sabotage.
Start a large fire, which would start the cameras rolling. Then set off the explosions, perfectly timed and perfectly spaced.
ISW reports:
“Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on December 9 that Russian authorities plan to reopen the road span of the Kerch Strait Bridge in March 2021 and the bridge’s rail lines in mid-summer 2023, significant delays from previously promised dates.
This announcement comes just four days after Putin drove across the Kerch Strait Bridge as part of a likely information operation to convince the Russian populace that the bridge is secure and to suppress panic over a possible future Ukrainian counteroffensive.”
Lets hope Russian oil pricing continues this way. Russia will not have the money (income) to make war on Ukraine.
These dates are quite fascinating if accurate. The initial claims which were posted by many on FR that the damage to the bridge was minor and the Ukrainians had failed in their attack are not aging well. Why the delay in opening the bridge to road traffic and why the very long delay in opening rail traffic if it were “minor” damage. Photos I have seen don’t even appear to show repair on the rail section has even begun and considering how important rail traffic on these lines to the supply of Crimea as well as Russian war effort is interesting
I also think it is quite interesting that fuel cars were on the bridge at the exact point of the attack. Coincidence, well if it was it made the attack all that more effective, if it wasn’t and that was part of the attack well that adds another level to the planning and coordination of the attack.
The whole thing is very strange.
It is interesting. Is it because they think they can get a “win” and that is all that matters? Is it the meat grinder option and they think they have more meat to give and ultimately the Ukrainians will run out and like the missile attacks to cause death and destruction to civilians and energy grid ultimately cause such pain that Ukrainians demand end to war?
The loses the Russians and in particular the Wagner group is suffering seems like an insane waste of resources and too that off with reported reinforcement by hundreds of t-90 tanks which at this point are going to be just more loses for the Russians adds to the weirdness.
This operation appears to be heading not to a defeat like the Germans revived at the hands of the Russians in ww2, but more like the defeat the Russians were felt by the Fins in the winter war. Massive lose with minor territorial gain in the end.
The results of that war led to a purge in Russia, interestingly not Stalin and I think lead directly to initial successes by the Germans during operation Barbarossa
It looks like Russia is facing higher costs to ship its oil, at the same time that prices are dropping, and it has to offer steep discounts.
There may also be some hard capacity constraints on available tankers to move Russian oil, despite the “shadow fleet” of older tankers that Russia has been buying. They would need around twice as many, as have been purchased Worldwide this year (presumably mostly by Russia).
As Joe Blogs points out on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5c_oN9HLII ), last month more than 50% of the tankers moving Russian cargoes were Greek. As a member of the EU, Greek ships are now banned from transporting Russian crude.
He also makes the point that Russia is self insuring their shadow fleet, and run the risk of just one disaster causing an overnight collapse of customers accepting their ships. Just one disaster, like the Freeport LNG terminal, or the Nordstream pipelines….
Russia sinks or swims on it oil revenues. It is a center of gravity for the war.
So far, Turkey has refused to allow Russian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Gallipoli until Russia provides proof of insurance.
I hope Turkey, as a member of NATO, stands firm.
This alone causes a loss of $52,000,000 in revenue per day.
In addition to lost revenue, Russia will have a lot of oil that needs to be stored. If this continues for a couple of months, Russia will have to start capping wells in the Black Sea area.
I believe that there is already a backup of Russian tankers waiting to pass through the Strait of Gallipoli to enter the Black Sea.
Russia sinks or swims on it oil revenues.
That pretty much sums it up.
Personally, I find it difficult to talk about the bridge without posting a picture. So, here's a pic:
Recently, Putin stated that Russia's attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure will continue as Ukraine started it by attacking the Kerch Bridge.
I now have revised my theory on the Kerch Bridge attack.
What Russia was doing in Ukraine was not working. They needed to change overall strategy. Russian military planners wanted to start attacking Ukrainian infrastructure.
Putin agreed, but wanted an excuse to start the attacks.
Putin needed a significant and believable Ukrainian attack on Mother Russia's infrastructure.
So, a truck bomb on the bridge would be the false flag event that would allow Russia to retaliate and attack civilian targets.
The explosion had to be big enough to be believed. An explosion on top of the road bed should not cause much damage. Or that is what Russian planners thought.
What they didn't consider is the crappy construction of the bridge. And who would have thought that a train, with fuel cars, would be parked on the rail bridge at exactly the wrong place.
The scenario that Russia came up with is simply not believable.
That's my story and I am sticking to it.
I am guessing that Erdogan on Turkey will start letting Russian tankers through when he is satisfied with a big enough bribe on each one - and he is greedy.
And it is a good story better scenario than most and how laughable would it be that their plan did not include a fuel train that would disable vital rail traffic for years coyote road runner level.
The best part is Putin crying “well they started it” sniff sniff
Sometimes this clown pulls straight up Biden worthy material
I'd quite forgotten that your literary critique was as piquant and perceptive as it is....
How are you are predicting the future outcome of the Ukraine-Russia conflict? Delphic much?
Try reading the post again, the predictions were made, at the beginning the world knew the outcome, and the shock is learning they/we were all wrong.
The predictions, our expectations, versus what is happening and what is being revealed about the Russian military are astounding and have shocked the world.
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