Lets hope Russian oil pricing continues this way. Russia will not have the money (income) to make war on Ukraine.
It looks like Russia is facing higher costs to ship its oil, at the same time that prices are dropping, and it has to offer steep discounts.
There may also be some hard capacity constraints on available tankers to move Russian oil, despite the “shadow fleet” of older tankers that Russia has been buying. They would need around twice as many, as have been purchased Worldwide this year (presumably mostly by Russia).
As Joe Blogs points out on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W5c_oN9HLII ), last month more than 50% of the tankers moving Russian cargoes were Greek. As a member of the EU, Greek ships are now banned from transporting Russian crude.
He also makes the point that Russia is self insuring their shadow fleet, and run the risk of just one disaster causing an overnight collapse of customers accepting their ships. Just one disaster, like the Freeport LNG terminal, or the Nordstream pipelines….
Russia sinks or swims on it oil revenues. It is a center of gravity for the war.