My go to metric is the number of people sleeping in the Walmart parking lot. You’ll see people living out of their cars and vehicles when things start getting worse.
I also see them at Home Depot and Lowe’s lots.
Hold my beer. 2 PM Saturday afternoon in Pocatello. It was 43F. Northbound on Yellowstone Ave, we reached a red light at Yellowstone and Alameda. On the sidewalk of the southwest corner was a fat guy dressed only in underpants and a hat. A big tattoo across his lower rib cage (not readable from across the street). He was stumbling around like a drunk. Almost lost his shorts at one point.
My wife (a police dispatcher) read the report when she returned to work yesterday. 4 parties called Pokey dispatch to report the guy. Pokey PD contacted him, but did not arrest him.