Right you are.
The ships are backed-up at ports, trucks will stop running when diesel hits $9-10/gal, or when there’s no product from the ships to transport, so will the trains, the ATMs and banks will close due to digital currency, and TSHTF, comes to the fore.
Most have no idea what’s coming.
The 2nd order effects are layoffs at retailers. You don't need staff to stock shelves if they don't have products. You don't need cashiers and greeters if the shelves are empty.
Shortages are not appearing uniformly. Small towns are getting hit first. Large cities are still getting product delivered.