Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's receives Russian President Vladimir Putin in Tehran
Posted on 11/28/2022 7:34:03 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it is not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
Highlights for Nov 26-27, 2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-PhrlRSZRs
Interestingly they don’t list the US losses. Billions that are given but never show up as weapons. Weapons that show up but are sold on the black market. I think our losses to corruption are larger than Russia’s losses in battle.
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Nov 25-27, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named War in Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... )
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
———————————————————————————————————————
Summary:
no major changes.
Key areas:
- Oskil river area: no changes.
- North Donbass area: no changes.
- Central Donbass (Donetsk West): no changes.
- Zaporizhya: no changes.
———————————————————————————————————————
••China:
There is a lot of protest against the Covid19 measures in China, however, the best way to view it as a discontent driven by economic problems that are multiplying and growing in China; how this is going to be managed by the Chinese leadership remains to be seen.
There is this increasing probability of some civil war, civil conflict in China, and its not a small one. The important part of situation around China there is continuing US pressure to prevent Chinese manufacturers to enter the US, and this is being done, not only in US, for example: the UK is doing something similar. US Federal Communication Commission forbids purchase of communication equipment from company Huawei Technology, HAK Vision Technology: they usually incorporate surveillance cameras; this is a couple more companies that blocked from accessing US market, which kills a lot of revenue.
Internal Chinese distribution of power or distribution or leanings within different provinces.
We spoke about the that pro-war wing won in China during this session of Communist Congress, however the regions that are soft power and want to takeover of the world are actually Heinan, Hubei, and Huibei; they are a stronghold of this wing of the Chinese power system, and its not a surprise Foxconn Factory riots are happening here, because I believe its in Heinan, so again the situation is very similar; in Heinan there is not much economy and things are getting more difficult, and the result you’re getting those riots. (Edit: there are many sparks and that is only one, mostly it is against the constant lockdown/reopen nonsense that drives people crazy.) We’ll see how the Chinese leadership is going to deal with the situation.
If you compare it with Taiwan where it actually things are really I would say moving in the Chinese favor there. There were elections in Taiwan and the pro-china forces won. (Edit they were local elections issues that did not favor the party in power having badly screwed up the expensive rebuilding of a sports stadium, then denying it also people were pissed at them. The election had nothing to do with Mainland China. The rest of the analysis missed the point and goes off a tangent, so skipped.)
Russia:
Russian crude oil fell to US$50-52 per barrel which reduces profitability tremendously; the cost to extract oil in Russia is extremely low: between US$10-12 dollars per barrel.
Its still selling at a US$40 dollars difference, but Russian State Budget was planned assuming US$70 per barrel, its a huge difference of what Russia is going to get if this persists probably creates huge blow in the Russian budget, and then that in turn creates huge blow in the Russian State finances, and means the demise of Russian currency will happen much faster, and that will also lead to economic problems or extend the disaster in Russia much sooner than expected, and its going to be much stronger and much deeper.
Ukraine:
There were no new attacks against their electricity distribution network, at the same time, the electricity distribution network is functioning, but practically, they are nearly islands and there’s still very thin interconnection exists between the regions, but its just so thin and throughput is so little, that they are connected extremely loosely, and hanging by the thread. Another round of attacks will completely will completely finish this situation where everything is going to get separated into islands, and then each island will try to survive on its own.
The majority of the country will be completely in darkness with people surviving by using power generators; there is a huge problem with that because its extremely uneconomical, its extremely expensive, the expected life of those power generators are not long and you need to run and run them full time, non-stop; this is going to be a big problem, and could spiral into total disaster with many civilian casualties as a result, but I’m not hopeful that Ukrainian government will be will be able to do anything meaningful and helpful. (Edit: most generators are not designed or built for continuous operation - only very expensive ones are so made.)
North Luhansk:
Things here are more or less the same mutual exchanges between Russian and Ukraine forces that don’t lead to anything; status quo remains. Again another failed Ukrainian attack attempt to cut the road, get to the river, get over the river didn’t lead to anything.
North Donbas:
Things here are more or less the same. Wagner Mercenaries are actively attacking.
The discussion of the tactical approaches of the Wagner mercenaries, Wagner Group; you will see that people are like used as robots to a great extent in all of the attacks, and so that’s going to come tomorrow.
Today the point is Wagner mercenaries are continuing active attacks; they lose a lot, but there are heavy losses on Ukrainian side as well. This is a mutual exchange of lives at high scale, looks like World War I, and even the head of Wagner mercenaries, Yevgeny Prigozhin, stated that the goal is not actually capture Bakhmut, but to take as many Ukrainian soldiers lives as possible, and the idea is, ‘we exchange our low quality human material for Ukrainian better quality human material, and so we exhaust Ukraine, and eventually in this war of attrition we will win’.
Ukraine has no chance, if it tries to play the game of ‘war of attrition’, which Russia realizes that this is what it is, and its actively playing it. If this continues, this is a strategic disaster and failure for Ukraine, and this is another a bellwether for Ukrainian society coming from Yevgeny Prigozhin who clearly was stating, ‘this is war of attrition, and eventually we will bleed you to death, and in the process, we’re not going to use our best resources human resources, but we’re gonna use our worst,’
I’m not judging people who are bad or worst, but that’s from his perspective - I’m sharing his point of view, because in my view, there’s nothing is conclusive about who is good and who’s bad.
South of Bakhmut, the situation is more or less similar, no essential changes, but again situation is extremely difficult and bad for Ukrainian side.
Central Donbas:
Things here are also very similar to what we’ve seen: all the time Russian attacks out of this Piskey salient out with the goal of outflanking & forcing withdrawal of Ukrainian troops, so far no success also other futile Russian attacks.
Zaporizhya:
Things here are still quiet. Russian sources continue reporting that Ukrainian side is accumulating forces and resources in North of Orkhiv (just east off the lake), the logic is from there they attack towards Azov Sea and cut Russian forces into two large groups, potentially creating encirclement of the group that’s in the Tavria region & in the Crimea region. The Crimean bridge is still not functioning properly, its still being repaired, so it looks like the railroad is still not functioning, and there is very limited use of the road part of the bridge. Russian side is actively working on repairing the bridge, despite very bad weather, and the expectation is that they will finish repairing the road part sometime in December probably going to be end of December.
Why you so dumb?
2000: March 15th.
“ We could use a FReeper pool to bet on when the Russian tank losses will reach 2,000! I’m going to say January 6, 2023!”
I’ll go for the Ides of March.
Lots of variables. The ground will be freezing in the North by next weekend, and through December in the South, enabling more maneuver, which would engage more tanks. No way to be sure which side will assault - where, when or how much. But the lull that the tanks had during mud season probably won’t continue.
New weapons or targeting capability (like more or better drones) could ramp up kill rates.
The Russians are forming a force of reconstituted units, filled with a lot of recently mobilized soldiers. Those forces are expected to be committed in January or February, and that will likely be a mass casualty exercise.
Speedy: 2,000 might be a nice round number, but sometime this Winter or Spring, there will likely be an inflection point, where Russia can no longer maintain the number of operational tanks it has in the field. That is kind of what we have been counting down toward, by tracking losses. After that inflection, as their replenishment dries up, and their numbers in the field are shrinking, the more meaningful metric will likely be how many are left in Country to destroy. That will be the final countdown to Russia’s demilitarization.
Putin s why they can’t have nice things.
Nov 27, 2022
Update on Russian military operations in and around Ukraine for November 28, 2022.
- Battle front is stable, Russian forces are pushing back amid stalled Ukrainian offensives;
- Russia continues dismantling Ukraine's power grid, leaving millions without electricity;
- US claims Russia is committing "war crimes" despite the US having targeted power grids repeatedly amid multiple wars of aggression;
- Western sources claim Russia is running out of cruise missiles because of older cruise missiles allegedly turning up in Ukraine;
- Using older cruise missiles and target drones to spoof enemy air defense systems is a long-standing and successful tactic;
- Western media admits growing complications regarding Ukraine's use of donated heavy weapons;
A cost of US$10-12 dollars per barrel to extract seems way too low. I believe it is more like $30 to $35. Perhaps Speedy knows the real number.
The ground launched version has a range of 150km.
This would be a welcome addition to UKR’s arsenal.
This appears to be the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense numbers, which are generally suspected to be inflated to some degree. The increased rate since September (Kharkiv offensive, mobilization and adoption of repeated Infantry wave attacks in Donetsk) seems to be consistent with other indicators.
For perspective, the Soviet Union lost about 15,000 killed in a decade in Afghanistan. Arguably however, it was low oil prices that finished off the Soviet Union.
Mobilization...IMHO, deploying mobiks into infantry with little or no training is criminal. Subjecting the mobiks to repeated infantry wave attacks will drive the death rate even higher.
Extraction price outside of Russia averages about $30-35, last I saw.
WiU has been quoting the $10-12 figure for months, and I think he bases it on now suppressed Russian data.
Kazan is the name of a city in RuZZia.
Is that where you live?
Why don’t you just post the actual New York Times article?
“the cost to extract oil in Russia is extremely low: between US$10-12 dollars per barrel.”
Extraction cost is only one category out of the total cost to produce (OPEX, CAPEX, Transport, Tax). One other cost that is particularly high in Russia, is tax. The Russian Government is even more dependent on oil revenues than most other Petro-States.
The real question is the breakeven cost to produce. That is going to vary between Arctic and Caspian, onshore and offshore, old and new wells, etc. So it is a fairly broad range, that varies in effect where we are along the price curve.
But the bottom Line is that $50 for Urals oil is going seriously squeeze a 2023 Russian budget (already in deficit), that was based on $70.
Their 2023 Federal Budget is $477 Billion, and they claim to have $148 billion left in their National Wealth Fund (which pays pensions, like Social Security). Russia is seriously constrained to borrow money to cover deficits, because of sanctions and credit rating, but they can print more rubles, and are off to the races doing that.
Russia sinks or swims on the price of oil.
“IMHO, deploying mobiks into infantry with little or no training is criminal.”
I really feel that deeply as well. It is a horror show.
I know that they have to be killed anyway, but those at the top making this happen are the ones who really deserve it.
One other cost that is particularly high in Russia, is tax
—
Don’t leave out transportation which is why Russia is acquiring its own fleet of oil tankers. Pipeline transport has already proved to costly to ship to India.
“Subjecting the mobiks to repeated infantry wave attacks will drive the death rate even higher.”
Russian leadership seems to be calculating this as a strategy, assuming they can inflict commensurate casualties on the Ukrainians, beyond what they can sustain.
While they have already flung tens of thousands of mobniks right to front to hold the lines, they are apparently also attempting to generate a new attack force using about 2/3rds of those recently mobilized to reconstitute old units. The anticipation is that when they are formed and the ground is frozen for maneuver (Jan or Feb), they will sally forth for a large offensive.
That would likely be about as many people as the initial invasion force, but of dramatically lower quality, with significantly less Air or Artillery support. Perhaps Russia will mass a bunch of Iranian, North Korean or Chinese missiles and Artillery to reinforce that push. They might hope to seize the Donbas, and be able to declare victory.
But if that offensive fails (as seems likely), further waves of mobilization will be unlikely to be able to reasonably equipped with major combat platforms like Artillery, Armor and Close Air Support. Then they will likely be pushed back to the border.
They can enslave more mobniks, but their fleets of equipment are heading toward hard constraints next year, as is their Federal budget. They can print rubles domestically, but they cannot produce major weapons platforms to keep up this rate of attrition. After this Winter/Spring, barring major third Country Military support (China), or a withdrawal of Western Military support to the Ukraine, Russian invaders are going to be rolled back.
The Ukrainan General staff reported the AFU damaged a railway bridge near Starobohdanivka. This could mean a big part of the Russian front line will have to rely on trucks instead of trains for delivering supplies.
Shaping the battlefield for Operations in the remaining occupied areas of Kherson Oblast?
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