Posted on 11/10/2022 6:24:25 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it is not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
RuZZian Tank losses RunningTotal: 1460
November 2022 – 41
October 2022 – 212
September 2022 - 217
August 2022 – 74
July 2022 – 108
June 2022 – 67
May 2022 – 148
April 2022 – 243
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 350
RuZZian Artillery losses Running Total: 384
November 2022 – 5
October 2022 – 64
September 2022 - 73
August 2022 – 21
July 2022 – 21
June 2022 – 18
May 2022 – 20
April 2022 – 52
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 110
“Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff, estimates well over 100,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded in Ukraine conflict, says “probably” the same on the Ukrainian side.”
https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1590500778623766530
“Very impressive and hard fought victory for Ukraine. The big question now is whether Russia can withdraw without taking heavy equipment and personnel losses. Ukraine has every incentive to make this withdrawal as chaotic and costly as possible.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1590364844053925888
“I think this thread will surprise you... Russia is digging new trenches in... Northern Crimea!
Russia has restored the trenches of the Chonhar checkpoint between Crimea and the Kherson Oblast. New trenches were also built.
The situation is the same in the north-western part of Crimea, near Armyansk. Old trenches are renovated and new ones are dug.
A little further north, other positions are being built. In Novotroits’ke, for example, a huge defensive position has been dug. Numerous other positions are visible throughout the region. They are building a fortress.”
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1590405107169914881
Mick Ryan
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1590524003994972160
“More information is emerging about the Russian withdrawal from West Bank of the Dniepr River in #Ukraine. This will have a range of impacts on the war.
2/ This thread builds on my earlier one that contained initial observations about a potential Russian withdrawal.
3/ The first order issue - is this real or possibly part of a deception campaign to draw the Ukrainians into a fight the Russians have prepared for? My sense is that it is the real deal. The Russian position is very difficult to sustain in #Kherson.
4/ The Ukrainians have fought hard, and undertaken long range strikes and psychological operations, to make the Russian position on the West Bank of the Dniepr untenable. They will also ensure the withdrawing Russians are attacked where possible.
5/ What about Ukraine’s next steps? It is unlikely the Ukrainians will be undertaking a large scale crossing of the Dniepr to the eastern bank anytime soon.
6/ Not only would this be a massive, deliberate operation, it would attack into a dense series of Russian defensive zones.
7/ Consequently, the Ukrainians - who prefer to attack indirectly, attrit enemy logistic and C2, and corrode the Russians from within - will look for other opportunities in other areas to clear the Russians from the south.
8/ Of course, Ukrainian deep strikes will continue. Their recapture of Kherson will expand the area in the south that systems like #HIMARS can reach for shaping and strike activities in support of future offensives.
9/ A second issue: this halts any future Russian designs on Odesa, but puts the Ukrainians a step closer to recapturing the south. Capturing Kherson is also an important enabling operation for a future campaign to recapture Crimea.
10/ A third observation: while this announcement was made by the military, ceding territory is political. There is no way this would have occurred without Putin’s sign off.
11/This is evidence that Putin can recognise reality, and can make rational decisions (as @MaxBoot describes here). But it is also evidence he is setting up the military as the fall guys for the Russian debacle in #Ukraine.
12/ Fourth, the pace and organization of any Russian withdrawal - given this should be a deliberate activity - will tell us much about the morale and capability of the Russian forces in the south.
13/ As I highlighted in this previous thread, conducting a tactical withdrawal in good order is a very difficult undertaking, even in the best of circumstances –
14/ And, given the time the Russians have had to prepare this withdrawal, they may not be leaving behind as much equipment & munitions as they did in the Kharkiv offensive. It may not be a bonanza of recovering enemy equipment for the Ukrainians.
15/ A fifth issue is that the Russians may accompany this withdrawal with stepped up strategic strikes elsewhere in Ukraine. While their own inventory of long range strike weapons is much smaller, they are seeking more from Iran.
16/ From a Russian perspective, these strikes would continue their ongoing ‘energy warfare’ against Ukraine, and would also provide strategic comms material to distract a Russian audience from the Kherson withdrawal & loss of territory.
17/ This is important for Putin. Having told the Russian people, in the annexation declaration, that Kherson is part of Russia, Putin will need a story to justify the withdrawal and distract the domestic audience from it.
18/ Sixth, with less territory to defend and coupled with an influx of mobilised troops, Surovikin can rebuild battered combat and support units. He may also build operational reserves in the south or east.
19/ The locations to which withdrawn troops are deployed will also provide insights into their combat status as well as General Surovikin’s likely priorities for the winter and into early 2023. This consolidation might also prolong the war.
20/ A seventh point: this is a validation of Ukraine’s military strategy and the approach taken by its senior leadership. They are succeeding and the Russians know it. This will also provide a morale boost for Ukraine going into winter.
21/ Finally, now is NOT the time to force Ukraine into negotiations. The Russians might be weakened but they are not giving up on their territorial aspirations. They will have to be beaten on the battlefield and pushed out of Ukraine.
22/ Which is why the west should supercharge its provision of equipment (including tanks), munitions and training to Ukraine. We have a profound obligation to help the Ukrainians end this war more quickly.
23/ Other good assessments on this withdrawal include those from @RALee85@massdaraand @NLWartracker
24/ There are still many uncertainties about this potential withdrawal by the Russians. And, it is a realignment of Russian forces, not a surrender. The Ukrainians have many more fights ahead of them to clear their lands of the Russian invaders. End.”
“Snihurivka, the largest Russian-held town north of Kherson, confirmed liberated by Ukrainian forces”
https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1590631029198364672
NATO gets stronger as RuZZia is being demilitarized.
“The U.S. State Department has approved the sale of M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and related equipment to Lithuania for an estimated $495 million.”
https://twitter.com/a_anusauskas/status/1590602818582642688
“Video of artillery strikes on Russian BMPs in Luhansk Oblast by Ukraine’s 25th Airborne Brigade.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1590458026624155649
“Video reportedly of Ukrainian Excalibur artillery strikes on a Russian KamAZ truck, MT-LB, and T-62M tanks. I think some of the strikes may be from ATGMs.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1590475344318193665
“Dow futures surge more than 800 points after October inflation report is lighter than expected”
My guess is inflation has peaked. Will go back down to sub 2% over next 12-18 months. Stock market goes up.
Also, we’ve reached Peak China.
“The Ukrainian Army entered Kiselyvka village which is only 15km away from Kherson city.”
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1590690201747488769
Little Pukin is viewed by many in RuZZia as a ‘savior’ after USSR collapse / Yeltsin era.
When this war is over, Little Pukin will be viewed as a destroyer of RuZZia. Economy in shambles. Military demilitarized.
OUCH!
I don’t care.
Not a lot of detail in this article. But I like the title.
“Ukraine attacks Russian units in Kherson, saying Moscow didn’t request a ‘green corridor’ for withdrawal”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/10/russia-ukraine-war-updates.html
My biggest problem with this is how unrealistic it is.
They will have to be beaten on the battlefield and pushed out of Ukraine.
That's never going to happen. Ukraine has the forces to prevent being overrun by the Russians, but not the forces to liberate all of Ukraine.
So it is stalemate forever.
Stalemate also means more death, more destruction, more resources and money lost.
If now is not the time for negotiations, when is?
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Nov 9, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named War in Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... )
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
———————————————————————————————————————
Extras:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Kyiv Reinforcing Belarus Border, Capital <——
Despite deploying a massive amount of resources to the east and south, Ukraine has beefed up its forces to the north and is reinforcing Kyiv.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyiv-reinforcing-belarus-border-capital
Excerpts:
Wagner Group forces are continuing to exaggerate their claimed territorial gains in Donbas to further distinguish themselves from proxy and conventional Russian forces.
The disproportionate financial burden of Russian force generation efforts continues to fall primarily on Russian regional governments’ budgets, prompting public backlash.
Financial and bureaucratic issues are continuing to hinder Russian efforts to replenish formerly elite units defending critical areas of the front line, potentially threatening the integrity of Russian defenses in occupied parts of Ukraine.
... an Israeli military analyst said that 70% of Russia’s Black Fleet is incapacitated.
Destroyed: UR-77 “Meteorit” mine clearer, 2S4 Tyulpan 240 mm self-propelled heavy mortar, a sabotage and recon group of Russian FSB forces was reportedly “neutralized”.
—
-—> Russia Proclaims Its Retreat From Kherson City (Updated) <——
Russian military leaders say they saw no alternative but to withdraw from Kherson City, even though it is a major blow to Putin’s plans.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-proclaims-its-retreat-from-kherson-city
Both Kadyrov and Prigozhin praised the General in Charge, Surovikin’s decision to withdraw.
Air Force Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, the Pentagon’s top spokesman, said: “It’s too early to tell whether Russian forces are actually withdrawing from Kherson City, but we continue to monitor.
———————————————————————————————————————
Summary:
Russian troops are evacuating Kherson bridgehead.
Key areas:
- Oskil river area:
futile Ukrainian attacks.
- North Donbass area: no changes.
- Central Donbass (Donetsk West): no changes.
- Zaporizhya: no changes.
- Kherson bridgehead:
Russian troops essentially gone with only rear-guard units doing defensive operations.
Ukrainian forces are entering in empty villages/towns.
———————————————————————————————————————
••European Inflation:
I want to mention that inflation in Europe is 10.7%; the statistical data came out and its a 10.7% - inflation remains high about 10%, and means is that the standard of living is going down pretty quickly. Salaries or wages of regular employees are not catching up with inflation, and also the standard of living again is going down, fueling social unrest. Nobody knows where the breaking point, but as it goes down, there will be some moment, at some point.
The rate is the result of energy policies that are completely misguided; they are self-destructive; it will cause social unrest and there will be a reset, and the policies will anyway. This current energy policy is simply not sustainable. They will be reversed - just a question of time before they will be reversed - how much suffering and pain will be inflicted on ordinary people meanwhile.
••Ukraine Energy Situation:
There were no attacks by Russian side against the energy infrastructure; this is a decision on the Russian side, because one more hit, one more wave of attacks and Ukrainian Energy System will be simply destroyed, disintegrate. I think the the reason is Russia doesn’t do the final finishing off hit, because its trying to actually negotiate peace, and that’s part of the reason why.
The situation that is causing Russia to try not to do a decapitation strike, and accept peace on mildly unfavorable terms for Russian: the Russian military officially announced they were withdrawing from the Kherson Bridgehead - the actual withdrawal started about two weeks ago.
If you remember I mentioned those indirect signs, but they looked, at that time, extremely speculative; in hindsight, they were like totally correct signs. I mentioned about retailers switching to back to Ukrainian currency from Russian, the Russian military blowing up wireless towers, news that some of the military air military bases were evacuated, there were a lot of indirect signs that in hindsight they were all correct.
••Russian Kherson Withdrawal:
Russian command already withdrew a majority of the troops, but it’s unclear how many; this is just rear guard units left for finishing final retreat. Its going to be similar to what happened north of Kiev where, Russian troops quickly withdrew over a day or two, and Ukrainian troops were not able to pursue, to inflict more than extremely minimal damage, relative to what could have been done - the Russian were let go out of the trap, without having losses. Something similar is happening here on Kherson Bridgehead.
At that time I mentioned that all it all look very suspicious and there were negotiations at that time in Istanbul, Turkey and that may have been result of those negotiations that Ukraine allowed Russian troops a free retreat, and Russia was vacating Ukrainian territory. It does look like a situation very similar. It could be total speculation, but it does look very similar. Russia troops are in process of withdrawing, moving to the Eastern Bank of the Dnipro River - it may take another day or two. Ukrainian troops are not pursuing, just taking over what Russian troops left. It looks very peaceful, with some exceptions, but today its a peaceful separation of the two sides.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokeswoman said, ‘Russia is ready for negotiations with Ukraine’. Its very unlikely that you what Russia sings is at this point that they’re gonna keep what they captured. this old territories and so there was there’ll be like some temporary piece where Russia keeps what what it gained that’s totally not acceptable for Ukraine so and that’s not gonna happen at this moment and especially at when Ukrainian societies for right or for the wrong reason feels, ‘okay we can push Russia out of Ukraine and Russia is losing on the end its on its last legs’.
Euphoria is probably settling in Ukraine, and so willingness to negotiate is definitely not there; there was never a willingness to negotiation to lose territorial integrity. Now its even less so, but here is no negotiation. What’s gonna happen here if there is no negotiation: Russia is still in pretty good positions so there is nothing terrible is going happen to the Russian side; they have this land bridge to Crimea, which is what they really wanted; they have the water from Dnipro River to create fresh water for Crimea.
I explained that there is a channel that takes a fresh water from Dnipro River and provides water to Crimean Peninsula which makes life there viable. The way it is right now, there are about two 2.5 million people living on the Crimean Peninsula which can support probably 700,000-800,000 people with its own water fresh water resources, not to mention that if there is no water in northern and central part of the Crimean, the peninsula turns into a salted land.
Russia wants to still keeps keep the channel that provides fresh water; it is becoming vulnerable because the pumps for that channel are near Nova Kakhovka; they can be destroyed easily. I am skeptical the Ukrainian side will try to do that, because there is also thinking, ‘we’ll need that once we liberate Crimea’. From both perspectives, there is no desire to destroy it.
Russia provides very good defensive cover with Dnipro River, so they don’t need to maintain many troops here, so they can redeploy all of these troops, which is as I said its top-notch troops that Russia has, so they can redeploy including the North Luhansk’ section of the front line, where situation is like not the best, the weakest link in the Russian defensive positions.
Russia can even try to do some local offensive by trying with the idea of goal of capturing the remaining part of the Donetsk’ region, and Luhansk’ region. Russia now controls pretty much all of the Luhansk’ region, but was the exception of like I don’t know five or ten villages, and then they can then try to claim victory internally politically, ‘we achieved what we wanted, we protected Russian speaking our citizens and everything is great, let’s have peace’.
Ukrainian side also redeploying a good amount of troops, they probably will keep one brigade, at most two brigades, on the Western Bank just as a protection that Russia doesn’t start an offensive, even though chances of that are approaching zero, but they still probably will keep at least one brigade - the rest are probably going to be redeployed.
The Zaporizhya front line is super thinly manned, probably something will go to the Zaporizhya front line, and then depends on Ukrainian command, they may try to force the situation here in North Luhansk’ where it looks the most promising for Ukrainian side, and try to liberate North Luhansk’ region, or they can strike towards Mariupol’, and destroy that land bridge.
It would be definitely be a much more important strategic move, destroying the land bridge, given that the Crimean Kersh bridge is not working, even though Russia is repairing it - there is quite a bit of progress being made on the regular road bridge. It looks like they may finish it by the year end, even though the weather is really going to get pretty bad in a month
Assuming they won’t be able to finish that an attack against Mariupol’ will literally create a trap for Crimea and all of that territory. It’s going to be one huge disaster for Russian side, one huge encirclement. From that perspective, that’s the most promising versus North Luhansk’, even Ukraine would liberate that territory, it would be extremely vulnerable to a flanking attack from Russian territory - that can lead to encirclement of Ukrainian troops there.
That is actually the least correct strategic move to try to liberate North Luhansk’ territory, but remains to be seen what’s going to happen the net situation is that Russian troops will redeploy its Kherson bridgehead group and Ukrainian will do the same. The net balance is going to remain the same; there’s not going to be an essential change.
The deciding factor is going to be Ukrainians Command’s ability to concentrate troops in a certain area, and the same is for the Russians, and try to launch an offensive and achieve something. Russian troops have really good, very well engineered defensive positions.
Why the Russians abandoned Kherson is is simply supply and logistics; it became extremely difficult to provide adequate amounts of ammunition and artillery shells. Ukrainian troops were not successful in attacking or trying to attack, and they failed - with sometimes with very heavy losses, and the situation would have remained for the same, but for the destruction of the logistical capability forced the hand of the Russian Command, and they had no choice.
so as related to this because the rest of it as you can see everything you don’t have any logistical problems E fresh and command Russian troops will the play deploy the same defensive lines and everything they had on the Kherson Bridgehead.
Its going to be extremely difficult for Ukrainian side to bridge defenses anywhere so as I said before then it again goes to the idea that Ukraine needs either some technical advantage ,which at this point Ukraine is unlikely to get, because Ukraine is not going to get any new weapons from the West. Whatever is being supplied is being supplied, it will continue to flow, but there won’t be a drastic change like F-16 fighters or US tanks or much more artillery. The situation will remain more or less more or less the same.
What I want to say is the other part of this is if Ukraine cannot get get this technical advantage, it needs to get gain quality advantage in the skill of the troops and quality of the command, and that’s actually the hardest thing to do.
so none of those passes are very likely for Ukrainian side so we may see the situation where its going to be stalemate for entire winter and then again as I said before once Russian troops will train enough of the conscripts and they will be ready they probably will try to launch a fan so maybe sometime January so this is just like potential to extend speculative passes where scenarios where things may go over the next several months.
••US Elections:
From Ukrainian perspective like remains the way it was - it doesn’t look there will be huge shift in direction of US policy, not to mention that the US is also a hostage and desperate - they have no choice but to support to Ukraine.
This is the war about keeping status quo in the world, versus Russia, China, Iran who want to destroy that status quo and create a brave new world the way they envision it, which for Russian part, it means rebuilding Soviet Union. China just wants to turn into some Empire or something that controls at least half of the world.
••North Donbas:
Wagner mercenaries are slowly but surely gaining territory that’s that’s just how I would describe this situation, and Ukrainian side does not have I would say strategic answer to that so far.
“Ukraine has beefed up its forces to the north and is reinforcing Kyiv.”
Looks like Ukraine is taking the possibility of another invasion from Belarus seriously.
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