Posted on 10/13/2022 4:18:21 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it is not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
Ukrainian Artillery losses Running Total: 114
RuZZian Tank losses RunningTotal: 1328
October 2022 - 121
September 2022 - 217
August 2022 – 74
July 2022 – 108
June 2022 – 67
May 2022 – 148
April 2022 – 243
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 350
RuZZian Artillery losses Running Total: 342
October 2022 - 27
September 2022 - 73
August 2022 – 21
July 2022 – 21
June 2022 – 18
May 2022 – 20
April 2022 – 52
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 110
Add in DNR/LNR and we are probably at 120-140k.
“Russia’s “irrecoverable losses” in the war with Ukraine have just become known: according to an FSB source, that figure is 90K. This includes troops who were killed, went missing, died from wounds, or were disabled and cannot return to military service.”
https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1580183189309763584
Rob Lee
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1580319977734688768
“Hugo has tracked SVBIEDs in Syria and elsewhere closer than anyone. I agree that a truck bomb is the best explanation with the information we have available.”
“[Thread] At 6AM on October 8, a massive explosion collapsed sections of the Kerch road bridge & also damaged the adjacent railway bridge, severely incapacitating Russian logistics to and from Crimea. Here’s my take on the attack, and why It was likely a suicide car bomb (SVBIED)
Satellite images released in the days since the attack show the extent of damage, with the railway tracks still inoperable and a single flimsy lane on the road bridge. At the outset, there were two competing theories; - SVBIED on the bridge - A boat-based VBIED under the bridge
I initially didn’t want to rule out the latter theory, mainly because of how insane the bridge SVBIED theory sounded. However, there are multiple reasons why a boat-based VBIED could not have been used:
A second CCTV perspective was used as ‘evidence’ of a boat being driven under the road bridge just as the detonation happened. The waves in the bottom right corner of the footage were identified as proof of a boat’s wake, despite no boat being seen.
Although a likely Ukrainian USV fitted with explosives (remote-controlled suicide boat) was discovered by Russian forces on the shores of the black sea near Sevastopol late last month, it was likely intended for use against ships. It’s too small for Kerch
Estimates put the weight of the explosives used in the attack at around 1000-2000kg (2,200-4,400lb), which is far too heavy for the seized ‘suicide’ boat.
Besides, if it really was a boat that detonated, there would be extensive damage, blast marks, as well as soot on the underside of the collapsed sections of the road bridge. There was none. The lack of water disturbance in the 2nd CCTV video also speaks against a boat being used.
This leaves just one explanation: A powerful SVBIED detonating on the bridge. There are many signs pointing to this. Large soot marks on top of the road bridge + lateral blast marks & bent railings/lampposts all indicate something detonated on the bridge
Furthermore, this picture seems to show a very noticeable depression in the section of the road bridge directly adjacent to where the SVBIED detonated, as if a powerful force (e.g. an SVBIED) pressed down from on top.
Now that we’ve established something detonated on the bridge, let me explain why and how an SVBIED was used in order to neutralize the bridge. First, this was likely not a traditional SVBIED where an ideologically convinced suicide bomber sacrificed his life for the cause
SVBIED attacks don’t always require a willing driver. The IRA popularised so-called “proxy bombs” where people were coerced under threat to drive SVBIEDs toward hostile targets, where they were detonated remotely upon arrival
However, this was likely an ‘unwitting’ SVBIED. The 52-year old driver of the lorry that detonated, Makhir Yusubov, likely had no idea what was going on. CCTV footage shows Russian soldiers inspecting the SVBIED prior to Yusubov crossing, with no one raising any alarms
The real alarm bells are represented by the fact that the truck was crossing the Kerch bridge from Russia to Crimea. Does the SBU have intricate SVBIED manufacturing facilities inside Russia proper? Probably not. The likely answer is quite ingenious
How do you transport large quantities of explosives without raising too much suspicion? Ammonium nitrate (fertilizer). Although the leading theory is that the explosives are AN-based, they were likely combined with an accelerant from the start
The explosives were likely mixed and concealed in Ukraine, before being transported/smuggled into Krasnodar, Russia on lorries via the Caucasus. The driver reportedly got an online order to transport AN from Russia to Crimea
Assuming that Ukraine had operatives in place, a front company in the Krasnodar area could’ve contracted the now deceased driver for a shipment to Crimea, loaded the goods on the truck, and also connected a remote detonation mechanism to the already boosted ammonium nitrate
Hence, an ‘unwitting’ SVBIED. The lorry detonated just after the start of an ascending incline on the road bridge, igniting train cars on the above railway bridge as well. Either of these (incline/train) could have been used as target reference if the detonation was RC-operated
Some people are putting forth long-range fires as an alternative explanation, but this doesn’t make sense. ATACMS (which Ukraine doesn’t have) have an individual payload of 100kg, just 5-10% of most estimates of the size of the actual detonation. This is not the Antonovsky bridge”
ChrisO
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1580303771208339456
“1/ With the news today that Russia has arrested eight people as suspects for the bombing of the Crimea Bridge on 8 October, I thought it would be useful to try to piece together a full account of the Russian narrative, as I’ve not yet seen it in Western sources. Long thread follows.
2/ I’m not endorsing this account – aspects have already been disputed – but it’s worth looking at what regional media reports are saying. The Russians say that a truck bomb caused the blast; western experts have endorsed this theory (see below).
3/ According to the Russians, the cargo was sent from Odesa in Ukraine to Ruse on the Bulgarian border in early August 2022. It travelled via Romania and likely Moldova, sent under a contract with Kyiv-based company Translogistik UA to a company called Baltex Capital SA.
4/ Bulgarian National Radio reports that Baltex is registered in Panama, not Bulgaria. Its customs representatives are a Bulgarian forwarding company called Tivacom. Baltex instructed it to be sent to an Armenian company called Gu AR G Group.
5/ The Bulgarian newspaper Dnevnik reports that the cargo went to the Bulgarian port of Burgas, from where it was shipped by ferry to Poti in Georgia. It arrived there on 26 September.
6/ Armenian media reports say it was driven from Poti to Armenia in a Georgian-registered DAF truck driven by Artur Terjanyan, an Armenian-Georgian citizen. It arrived at the Bagratashen border post at 14:53 on 27 September, where it was inspected and X-rayed.
7/ No irregularities were found. The cargo was then driven to the Alliance Terminal, a customs warehouse on the outskirts of Yerevan, arriving on the same day at 22:46. It remained there temporarily before it was inspected again on 29 September and documents were submitted.
8/ According to the manifest, which the Russians have published, the cargo comprised 22 pallets with a total weight of 22,770 kg (50,200 lb) of Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene edge banding (used to finish the sides and ends of wood-based materials), stacked in rolls.
9/ Marked with “Made in China” stickers, the cargo was photographed and inspected by the Armenians. The lamination of one of the rolls of ABS plastic was checked to verify that it was correctly classified according to the trade rules.
10/ I haven’t seen any clear explanation for why the truck went to Armenia. It might well be related to the fact that when it entered Armenia, customs checks were done under Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) customs rules, which also cover Russia. Georgia isn’t a member.
11/ This may have provided a back door route into Russia – checks done at the EEU economic border presumably do not have to be redone at the Russian border if a cargo travels from one EEU country to another.
12/ The Armenian authorities say that the customs service at the Ararat Regional Customs House in Yerevan certified the cargo as being “goods of the EEU” on 30 September and issued a transit declaration. This likely made it easier to bring it into Russia.
13/ While at the Alliance Terminal, according to the Armenians, the truck was under camera surveillance for the whole time. It was neither loaded nor unloaded, nor was anything else added. It left Armenia at 00:38 on 1 October via the Bagratashen border post, again being X-rayed.
14/ The pictures of the truck above and the X-ray images were published by the State Revenue Committee of Armenia on Facebook (link below). The X-ray image was likely made at Bagratashen on either 27 September or 1 October.
15/ Some commentators have misinterpreted this X-ray as showing the alleged bomb truck or have misattributed it as coming from the Russians. The image comes from Armenia and is of the Georgian DAF truck, not the truck that exploded, which was a different model entirely.
16/ Having entered Georgia again, the truck entered Russia at the Verkhniy Lars checkpoint in North Ossetia – the only open border crossing between the two countries. Curiously, it arrived there only on 5 October. What Terjanyan was doing in the intervening 4 days is not stated.
17/ The DAF truck was then driven 434km from Verkhniy Lars to Armavir, a city in Russia’s southern Krasnodar Krai region (which lies to the east of Crimea). It arrived at the warehouse of a company called Agro-Business.
18/ The company is reportedly owned by Georgy Azatyan, a native of Makiivka (near Donetsk city in occupied eastern Ukraine), and his father Samvel. Another son, Artyom, is a lawyer in Simferopol in Crimea.
19/ Artyom reportedly called his father to ask him to accept the cargo for a day on behalf of a friend. This was not communicated to Georgy and the cargo arrived unexpectedly on 6 October. It didn’t cause a problem as there was plenty of room in the warehouse.
20/ Terjanyan handed the warehouse operator a pile of invoices but they were not read or signed by the receiver. The cargo was unloaded in the warehouse, where it was to remain overnight.
21/ On the same day, Thursday 6 October, the cargo became the subject of a delivery order posted on ATI (http://ati.su), a Russian freight exchange website, by an Ulyanovsk-based company called TEK-34, with a contact listed as ‘Oleg’.
22/ The cargo was listed as a ‘container and packaging’. It was to be delivered to Simferopol, Crimea on 7 October (probably not coincidentally, Vladimir Putin’s birthday). The named recipient was a non-existent company supposedly based in Crimea.
23/ TEK-34 seems to have a curious history. It reportedly received good customer reviews between 2009–2020, when it was active, but ceased operating at the end of 2020 when it was sold to a man named Oleg Antipov. It was delisted in 2021 for not having a valid legal address.
24/ In March 2022 it ‘came back to life’, obtaining a legal address and registering for tax and pensions payments. However, it reportedly did not engage in any activity.
25/ Ten minutes after the job was posted on ATI, Azerbaijan-born truck driver Mahir Yusubov accepted it for a fee of 48,000 rubles ($753). It was removed from ATI shortly afterwards. Yusubov had moved from Kazan to Krasnodar two years ago. He was married and had three children.
26/ Prior to taking the job on 6 October, Yusubov had spent all of September driving around the Krasnodar region making deliveries. His movements were recorded on cameras in the region.
27/ On 7 October, Yusubov drove from Kanevskoy in the north of the region to Armavir, arriving at the warehouse at lunchtime. The cargo was loaded onto his truck, an International ProStar with 870,000 km on the clock, using the warehouse’s mechanical loader.
28/ Yusubov was last spotted in Armavir at 16:04. Although the contract required him to deliver the cargo to Simferopol on 7 October, he stopped instead at the village of Svetlyi Put about 99 km from the Crimea Bridge, where he was spotted at 23:06. He likely slept in his truck.
29/ Yusubov was next seen in the village of Strelka, en route to the Crimea Bridge, at 05:00 on 8 October. At 05:52 he crossed onto the bridge, and at 06:03 his truck exploded. /end
“Video of a Ukrainian air burst artillery strike, presumably by a PGM, on a Russian Msta-S howitzer. “
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1580357471239299073
“Saudi Arabia said Biden tried to force the country to delay oil production cuts until after the US midterm elections, but Riyadh rejected his quid pro quo offer.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1580476321918255105
“Looks like Russian/LDNR forces are now using 152mm D-1 M1943 howitzers, which were first produced during World War II.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1580337926306598912
“Rusnya was blown up by an anti-tank mine ...”
https://mobile.twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1580284559954153472
Good RuZZians
“Several Russian scouts were destroyed by soldiers of the SSO of Ukraine. The operators of one of the units ambushed fighters of the reconnaissance unit of the occupation forces. The video shows the second phase of special operations after a car with Russian passengers was damaged by fire.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1580452445431660544
That is a crazy suicide by landline?
The amount of captured tanks and equipment is remarkable. I have seen some reports that the Russians are putting some 900 t-62s in service. Sounds like winning /s
We have at least one Putinist day dreaming about a Russian nuclear attack on DC and Virginia here. Are you in support there, too? Would you like me to dig out the post? I’m always happy to help.
Busy day today:
Russia had officially acknowledged the death of at least five conscripts mobilized after Sept. 21.
I wonder what kind of training they received prior to dying in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1580544479777288193
One more. This is hilarious video:
“Mobilized Russian reservists do not need to go to Ukraine to die - this fellow was run over by an APC right on the parade ground”
https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/status/1580506595087486978
I stand by that comment.
Similar to the US nuclear stance during the Cold War.
I know you do and it goes straight to the state of your mental health.
Absolutely, and there is no digging out for Speedy. He just doubled down, and it's completely insane.
How’s the weather in RuZZia?
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