Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Oct 1, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••denotes transcribed dialogue.
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Extras:
—> Ukraine Situation Report: Russian-Occupied City Of Lyman Falls <—
Ukrainian troops forced Russia’s retreat from the strategic Donbas rail hub in another major win on the war’s eastern front.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russian-occupied-city-of-lyman-falls
New footage shows Ukrainian forces and their domestically produced “Punisher” drones dropping unguided bombs on Russian positions. Unlike some of the smaller commercial drones modified to drop mortars and grenades hovering above, the Punisher drops ordnance like a dive bomber with remarkable accuracy.
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Current to date and past MAPS:
https://militaryland.net/
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UPDATE: Russian troops managed to escape from the Lyman although with some losses. Frontline has moved to Terny-Kreminna line.
Summary:
Ukrainian forces liberated area around Lyman including villages Torske, Terny, Zarichne, Yampolivka.
Key areas:
- Oskil river area:
Russian troops managed to escape from the pocket in Lyman.
They started leaving on the evening of the Sep 30th, and during night of the Oct 1st.
Russian troops established new frontline in Kreminna.
Ukrainian troops are catching up, and it will take another day or two before they approach Kreminna.
- North Donbass area: no changes.
- Central Donbass (Donetsk West): no changes.
- Zaporizhya: no changes.
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.
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••Military Situation:
North Luhansk’
Lyman is where the main action is right now. What is happening here is Russian troops, based on some unconfirmed reports, from Dorvichna in the north to Kupiansk are also withdrawing towards the line that’s gonna go around the village Kuzemivka and the line is probably gonna go up north; they’re leaving this a small portion of the Kharkiv region that Russian troops still control
(Edit: {488th /144th D}, {254th /144th D}, {752nd /3rd mD}, {201st MC}, {BARS 13 & 16}.
Ukrainian troops: {25th}, {71st}, {93rd}, {79th}, {95th}, {81st?}).
The next the key points right now for the Russian troops is strongholds is Kreminna: they retreated from Lyman straight to Kreminna. Apparently the new front line is gonna be built around this along the road that leads to Svatove, and then to a village a little bit north northwest of Svatove, then to the state boarder near Troits’ke or something; this is what is Russian command is attempting. There are reports that Russian troops are withdrawing from this whole area. We’ll see where where its gonna lead.
What happened in Lyman: Russian troops managed to escape starting at the end of the day on the 30th. On the evening on the 30th and 29th and the 1st, they were retreating. First they moved to Lyman, and then to Zarichne & Torski. Then they they traveled the road to Kreminna, even the road was under some fire control. Apparently, that wasn’t strong enough, so they managed to escape; this is almost the correct move from the Russian command.
There is no question that’s better choose the battle, and be able to continue the war. Another battle will be forming around Kreminna. It will take some time for Ukrainian troops to catch up & move closer before the active fighting will start around Kreminna area. The point is Russian troops managed to escape; they lost some equipment, even though they didn’t have that much equipment left and some soldiers, but still the backbone is still there.
As long as you have backbone, you can refill it with new meat, and the unit is going to be able to continue to fight. This put strong psychological pressure on Russian troops the loss, another loss; there’s definitely no question its extremely negative psychologically. But its very positive psychologically for Ukrainian side.
The temporary Russian position is around Hevs’ke village over to Kreminna. Most likely the Russians will slowly retreat to the road that goes from Kreminna to Svatove, that’s just gonna be their fall back position. Most of the southern Russian section is already there. They will try to prepare a defensive position, and then the troops will slowly retreat to the road. Then the Ukrainian troops will be slowly catch up to new Russian defensive positions; right now they are still far away from those positions.
What happened on the morning of the 30th: there was an attack of the 503rd Regiment so that attack in hindsight was an attack to distract the attention of Ukrainian troops, to create a bridge for the troops. Russian propaganda was presenting it as a large attack that will change everything, everything is going to be great, Lyman will be controlled, and the Ukrainian troops will be beaten down.
But the real purpose of that attack was to create a bridge to allow the units in Lyman and the 201st Military Camp to exit and to get to new defensive line at Kreminna. It succeeded because it allowed Russian troops to exit Lyman and to exit this is the Zarichne & Torski area with losses. The skeleton is still there, and that’s the most important part of all it.
They first exited Lyman and moved to the Zarichne & Torski, from there they moved to Kreminna. Also Ukrainian troops managed to gain control of Terny village during the process, but there was a larger Russian withdrawal towards east by the 503rd/190th, so there was not much fighting. There was not much of the fighting in Lyman itself after the 30th; it was relatively quiet now.
New frontline is also a temporary situation, based on some information and its (garbled) information. I want to make it clear that Russian troops are withdrawing here, to build new a defensive position along this Lunhansk’-Kharkiv region border.
We need to consider that Russian units with mobilized conscripts are going to be showing up in large numbers soon on the front line. How that will effect what we’re seeing, remains to be seen. That’s still one big unknown question remaining out there. This creates opportunities because, from a Russian perspective, its very clear they want to delay advances of Ukrainian troops & maintain control of as much territory as possible - that’s the idea on the Russian side. Russians absolutely have to hope there is this buildup of huge reserve army which will come and will crush Ukrainian troops.
That’s just a big picture perspective from the Russian side; from Ukrainian side the situation is reversed: we would like to achieve as much as possible before this reserve army shows up, and then regardless if it shows up, we’ll continue fighting because we have no choice.
This is a situation of desperation whether that army shows up or not, it really doesn’t change Ukrainian position overall. Acting quickly is in Ukrainian interest in making quick advances is definitely that’s what Ukrainian side should be doing, but here what this opens up is Kreminna was another stronghold.
This opens up an opportunity to go towards southeast, to go behind Rubizhna-Serverodonetsk and creates ability to liberate those towns. Then maybe cross even Seversky Donets River in getting to the rear of the whole Russian troops, including the Wagner mercenaries that are attacking Bakhmut and Solidar; creating situations for Russian side where all of that area will be quickly evacuated and lost, because there is threat of an attack in the rear.
so this is one then more straightforward is you know attack towards Starobil’s’k, attempting to capture or liberate Svatove from the south, but this territory is relatively less important than attacking towards the direction of Serverodonetsk.
Then more towards south is where the Ukrainian focus is probably going to be, more so. This is just agricultural land; its important, but from a perspective of propaganda purposes, retaking that lost ground will do more than than you know. Most people don’t know, but never heard of Svatove/Starobil’s’k. They are just some names that doesn’t ring the bell.
Once Ukrainian troops liberate this area, they will be exposed to flanking strikes from the Russian territory; that literally can go south and catch them. That’s partially why Ukrainian troops evacuated this whole area at the beginning of the war so quickly, because if Russian troops started advancing from all of this area, creating an opportunity to be encircled. Once Ukrainian troops are control this territory, its going to be hard to keep control, because you can always have a strong hit by Russian troops it going south.
Kherson Bridgehead:
Active Russian sources reporting that Ukrainian troops are actively continuing their attacks with the idea of liberating Davydiv Brid. Also Ukrainians started renewing pressure in the northern section of this bridgehead on the western bank of Dienpr River so again looks like a Ukrainian command decided to force situation again. It remains to be seen if Russian side is ripe for defeat: if there is still enough ammunition, enough everything to continue defensive fight.
Its very clear this is just a defensive fight that eventually will lead to loss of the Russian troops of this bridgehead. Attacks by HIMARS are pretty intense and as long as Ukraine gets rockets, there is no future for the Russian troops here.
