RuZZian Tank losses RunningTotal: 1187
September 2022 - 193
August 2022 – 74
July 2022 – 108
June 2022 – 67
May 2022 – 148
April 2022 – 243
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 350
RuZZian Artillery losses Running Total: 311
September 2022 - 69
August 2022 – 21
July 2022 – 21
June 2022 – 18
May 2022 – 20
April 2022 – 52
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 110
“The US Embassy in Moscow called on its citizens to leave Russia immediately.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1575074119993163776
Update them numbers tank and artillery numbers cause they are utter BS.
Apparently, you missed or have not read the latest NYT article huh?
When you desperately demanding and begging for US/UK/EU/NATO tanks, artillery, and planes, you have virtually no tanks, artillery, and planes of your own left.
Simple as that, CIA/MI6 front ORYX. Simple as that.
When the counterattack was launched and did so well and all that positive news was coming out for a week, I assumed the Russians would do something that would remind us that they were still a big dog, and our good period would be followed by a dark period as the Russians launched their reaction to regain footing and a morale boost.
What I didn’t expect is that the counter-offensive would be followed by non-battlefield setback after setback of the Russians in every aspect of government life, mobilization chaos and riots demonstrating more Russian incompetence, Russian allies snubbing them and holding back support, body blows to their crumbling world image, a breaking of the national calm, serious speculation of Putin’s future, no real pushback on the battlefield and continuing revelations that their military is even worse off than we thought 3 months ago.
This is a month later and the Russian nation’s situation just keeps getting piled on with failures and shortcomings piling on to the previous ones, I don’t see any sunshine for Russia anytime soon.
The Ukrainian offensive didn’t just change the battlefield, it peeled the scab off of Russian society.
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Sept 27, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••denotes transcribed dialogue.
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Extras:
Ukraine Situation Report: Untrained Russian Draftees Reach The Front
Russian conscripts face a battle-hardened enemy that already has bested better-equipped, far more experienced Russian regulars.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-untrained-russian-draftees-reach-the-front
Excerpt:
Russia is wholly unprepared to support its newly mobilized source that at least one unit was promised only uniforms and body armor. In the video below, a Russian officer instructs recruits to source their own medical supplies, including tampons as bandages for gunshot wounds.
—
Sabotage Suspected In Undersea Gas Pipeline Explosions In The Baltic
The controversial Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, which are supposed to carry Russian gas to Europe, have been breached.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/sabotage-suspected-in-undersea-gas-pipeline-explosions-in-the-baltic
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Summary:
Ukrainian forces continue making further advances in the northern, north-eastern, and eastern directions from the Oskil-Siverskyi Donetsk corner;
Russian troops defending Lyman are essentially encirlced.
Key areas:
- Oskil river area:
Ukrainian troops liberated villages Novoselivka, Kolodyazi, Novy Myr, Katerynivka, Olgivka, Izyumske.
The fighting is going in Proletarske-Chernyshchyna area now.
- North Donbass area: no changes.
- Central Donbass (Donetsk West): no changes.
- Zaporizhya: no changes.
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.
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••There were clear reports that Nordstream 1 and Nordstream 2 have been blown up near the Danish island, Bornholm. Its very clear it has been blown up. I would prefer not to go into speculation who did it, because many sites will. Its not that hard to do - for those I don’t know much about the Baltic Sea - its very shallow in general, and in the area around rather island, its about 40 to 50 meters; its not that hard technically to blow it up in the first place.
That’s important for many interested parties I would say, probably the only one that could be excluded is Germany, Denmark, and Sweden; everybody else is on a potential suspect list.
The supply of natural gas was not happening through Nordstream 1 and Nordstream 2, so it does not affect energy supply of German or energy supply in Europe, because Germany is the economic engine of Europe. This is some event that will be a pretext for something else, and probably we’ll see if this happens. Probably in within a week, we’re gonna find out, and then it will be very clear from the events that may unfold, who was who actually did it. That’s why I prefer not to speculate, because I think it will become clear who actually did it with a high degree of certainty.
Russia is saying they’re gonna stop exporting natural gas through Ukraine. There is a pipeline, but its barely used - that’s about 15 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year; that’s the utilization. The actual throughput capacity is much, much much higher - lose to 100 billion cubic meters. It used to be one of the major routes for the Russian natural gas to Europe, now with the war its close to dead, but there’s still some natural gas flowing, which does effect of the price of natural of gas in Europe, because that small stream of natural gas is still important for the inner energy balance in Europe.
What’s really happening as a result in Germany is there’s no coherent reason, no hearing policy, its just play as you go situation - there’s no strategy.
Germany is opening up coal power generators and what they’re gonna use is brown coal, which is even worse than normal because - those who probably don’t know much about this, there’s two types of coal, well there’s more but there’s normal regular black coal, which it by itself, there are different kinds; coal can be ranked by the amount of energy content, and brown coal has the least amount of energy per volume.
You need to burn it much more of it. From the perspective of you really care about the emissions that do to happen when you burn coal, there is actually even decent amount of radioactive emissions from burning coal. Brown coal is the worst case.
Germany was trying to do all of this wind & solar that really doesn’t work, and rely solely on Russian natural gas, and result natural gas out everything else is out and you desperate and you don’t get anything elsewhere in the world. You’re relying on the brown coal which Germany is going to be mining in Germany.
That’s like the last ditch effort to save the country from a complete collapse because that’s definitely something is on the table if there are no changes in German energy policy. Even right now there are still dreams of wind and solar that’s not going to happen, and some countries starting to realize and rethink, but Germany is extremely stubbornly persistent; I’m not even sure German viewers can explain the logic why there’s such a behavior there, but in any case, this is what’s happening; this is major development.
About using tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine: there was an internal conversation by the Ukrainian people by one of the head of the National Defense Council, and he generally said that if this happens, we still continue fighting - no matter what.
At the same time, the former Russian president’s video came out and a written piece, saying if we use tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the West will be scared and back out.
That is a very dangerous misconception, in my opinion, in the Russian leadership, because he’s the spokesperson for the entire Russia leadership. Its not just Putin; its never just one person. There’s no King. He floated this idea, and the problem was there is big misconception within Russian leadership; they think theWest is just helping Ukraine and being stubborn about Ukraine, and is just this is about just Ukraine.
They fail to understand that this is the fight for the status quo of the world order. In Russia did the gravest offense they can do, in the view of the West by attacking existing World Order and trying to destroy it; and so that’s the worst you can do. The fight is really about not just Ukraine, its it many fights in one big fight. Ukraine fights for its own survival for its own future self-determination.
There’s just a bigger fight at the same time, and I don’t I cannot say for now its unclear, but there’s some relationship between blowing up pipelines and this whole conversation about using tactical nuclear weapons. It looks like the chances of that happening are going high, unfortunately in Ukraine. As they say in Ukraine its not the end of the world, but its definitely something that’s, hopefully, is going to be avoided.
But based on the conversation, its very clear that this is definitely on the table and even the population is starting to be prepared, to extend the you really cannot prepare for that, but to the extend you can. There is there is some information about civil defense in Russia: how to protect yourself in the case of a nuclear strike.
Then those referendums in Ukraine, in occupied territories, they finished - the results are 90% - 97% - 98% in favor. Its was fake as it gets - as you can imagine the Russian side didn’t even try to to make it look realistic. That makes it honestly laughable. At the same time, there is so all of those so-called heads of the regions who were appointed Russian puppets or a directly Russian military head, they all sent requests to become part of Russia.
At the same time, something is a little bit breaking on the Russian leadership side, I don’t know if this is related to this pipeline or the whole, but now they won’t be an extra ordinary meeting of the National Security Council in Russia to approve this decision in Russian Parliament. It will be put on a regular schedule to happen sometime in October. Things in Russia looks like a little bit trying backing out - to what extent this is real or not, it can change at any time, but that’s what we can like deduce from this whole situation.
North Luhansk’:
This is the most important area of the whole war. The northern part is stable meaning Ukrainian troops did not push more much more to the east from either of the bridgeheads: one is near Drobysheve and the other one Kupiansk on eastern side, this is more or less stable here.
Where its not stable for the Russian side is in this area between the a Oskil River and Seversky Donets River. Ukrainian troops continue moving north. The goal is not Lyman as many commentators say, that is a byproduct of the attack towards Svatove.
The tactical situation: there is a road from Borava to Svatove, that’s one road. There is another road that crosses a small but swampy river at Makiivka.. We don’t see much action or attempts by Ukrainian troops to go in the eastern direction, because then they can go on the road that goes from Kupiansk to criminal and then to Severodonetsk. It seems like the main focus is the Borava to Svatove roadway and this is where Ukrainian troops are trying to get to and move to Svatove.
Ukrainian troops slowly moving every day which again says that the Russian forces are completely outnumbered. At this point where we can say not only in number of people, which always being true, but also in the military equipment, maybe not in tanks, but in artillery. Its very clear that there are not enough Russian artillery here, and the front line moving too quick, and too big.
This is creates an opportunity for Ukrainian troops, because if they were in the typical situation where there’s a lot of Russian artillery, all of the attacks would be destroyed by their artillery and turns into high losses with no gains.
South:
This is an area around Lyman is again not important, relative to what’s going on up north, because the goal is Svatove and moving in an eastern direction, liberating this whole northern part of the Luhansk region; and maybe, that might be a reason why this whole referendum thing started to unravel again, because Ukrainian troops are making military advances, liberating parts of Luhansk region which before now was controlled 99% by Russian troops.
The Russians definitely lost quite a bit of ground or are in the process of losing it. This is an interesting situation from purely tactical situation: will Ukrainian troops manage to create small pocket or will Russian troops be able to escape again?
So far the Russian command has been intelligent enough not to allow themselves to be surrounded with no escape. But here situation is clearly dangerous; we can see the only escape route is through Zarichna. The road has some artillery control, but Ukrainian artillery control is probably not perfect. Ukrainian troops basically attacked Thorski today, which is like one big village in the region
They did not manage to liberate it or make big inroads, but that’s sufficient or enough to create a very realistic case of for encirclement. because this is the only escape route. Ukrainian troops now in this in Kalodisi village and at this is the key crossing that leads to Stavky. This is whole area is a gray area; there is potential for Ukrainian troops here as well.
Russian troops evacuated Novoselivka today, not because Ukrainians put significant pressure or anything, they just pulled back, realizing that worst case scenario that escaping from this area is going to be nearly impossible.
Its totally possible that Drobyscheve is going to be evacuated again, and and they will try to escape because the door can be shut pretty closed pretty soon, not to mention, if Ukrainian troops simply pivot and go and attack and cut off this road from this side they don’t really need to Zarichna - Thorski, they just can like go around it, to prevent Russian troops from escaping.
At the same time the value is not huge. There is no known regular Russian troops here, just this ad hoc units from reservists BARS 13 and 16 & maybe some parts of the 301st Military Camp. Military camps are Russian are sometimes either brigade or division size units. The occupational forces are either from the Caucasus or Central Asia. This one (301st) is from Central Asia and is division size. However in Ukraine, they have to leave some occupational forces in place in Ukraine.
Some portion of the unit, probably regiment size, maybe it could be even a little less, some of them were brigade size which means that you have a battalion or two battalions, just like consolidated unit to either brigade to battalion. Its hard really hard to pinpoint exact size. All we can say is this is not larger than than a regiment, and since it has been on the front line for a while it’d probably smaller.
There’s not terribly much left of the Russian troops. It would be a psychological victory for Ukrainian side if they managed to create a pocket. It doesn’t do anything, but it helps to to instill the confidence in the troops, because the making pockets is a high level manual that requires quite a skill.
At the same time, I’m not going to say that Ukrainian troops are on the top notch, being able to execute difficult maneuvers: such as attacking and creating a circle. Just for whatever reason, the Russian side is stubbornly clinging to Lyman, probably more from a PR perspective than anything else. This is totally lost situation for Russian site as it does not have troops to change the situation; this is hopelessly lost.
There are reports that Ukrainian troops liberated the village Dibrova. This also creates opportunity to to cut this road as you can see this is very critical road as well Krimina to basically man and create problems by actually pivoting and going into Krimina that would create quite a bit of chaos in a Russian rear this situation is bad for Russian side, and it creates many opportunities for Ukrainian side to exploit, if their actions are quick.
Russian defenses seems to be falling apart in this whole area .and as I said the most immediate like games or low-hanging fruit that the Ukrainian forces can achieve; there’s again river that goes through Svatove up north. That’s probably what can be liberated as a result and potentially create an opportunity to liberate the area between Svatove and Starobil’s’k is another part of it, and that that creates big, big problem for all Russian troops that are trying to capture Bakhmut and Solidar. It is a very futile attempt: without really considering this whole mobilization situation. How that’s gonna play out nobody can predict, nobody knows, even Russian leadership.
Once those those troops start arriving, and they probably will start arriving in in couple days, in two three days definitely by September 30th, probably will start seeing the first of those units being simply thrown here because the situation is desperate for Russian command - they’ll be thrown here just to stop the advances and prevent the collapse of this whole section of the front line.
Zaporizhya:
The Russians still keep one of their most capable units in this area (810th NB, 40th NB, 155th NB) and also 336th Naval Infantry Brigade; I suspect they are all clustered all here to prevent breach of the Russian defenses there.
Kherson Bridgehead:
Apparently Russian troops are not weakened enough to launch any major offensive.
AP reports that the next $1.1 billion package of US Military aid to the Ukraine will include 18 more HIMARS launchers. 18!
Unfortunately, this is a contract for new ones (rather than a drawdown from existing stocks) so there will be a year or two delay.
“The package includes funding for 18 of the High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, and ammunition for them, and 12 Titan systems, which are used to counter drones. Officials have said the HIMARS and other similar systems were key to Ukraine’s battle successes in recent weeks. And the Russians have been using Iranian-made drones to target Ukrainian forces, underscoring the need for more systems to counter that threat.
Also in the package is funding for about 300 vehicles, dozens of trucks and trailers to transport heavy equipment, a variety of radars, communications and surveillance equipment, and other gear for soldiers. It also will include funding for equipment to detect explosives and for maintenance and training.”
This package is supposed to be announced today, and another next week, that will likely include more drawdown.