When the counterattack was launched and did so well and all that positive news was coming out for a week, I assumed the Russians would do something that would remind us that they were still a big dog, and our good period would be followed by a dark period as the Russians launched their reaction to regain footing and a morale boost.
What I didn’t expect is that the counter-offensive would be followed by non-battlefield setback after setback of the Russians in every aspect of government life, mobilization chaos and riots demonstrating more Russian incompetence, Russian allies snubbing them and holding back support, body blows to their crumbling world image, a breaking of the national calm, serious speculation of Putin’s future, no real pushback on the battlefield and continuing revelations that their military is even worse off than we thought 3 months ago.
This is a month later and the Russian nation’s situation just keeps getting piled on with failures and shortcomings piling on to the previous ones, I don’t see any sunshine for Russia anytime soon.
The Ukrainian offensive didn’t just change the battlefield, it peeled the scab off of Russian society.
Well, that's what the usual suspects here all said. And Russia has mounted a counter-offensive. They have sent significant forces attempting to hold the left banks of the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets Rivers. But Ukraine's offensive is the real deal, and Russia's counter-offensive has thus far been a huge failure. This a strategically significant region that Russia does NOT want to lose. They will regroup and try to establish defensive positions further east, but Ukraine has the initiative at this point, and regrouping without much of your armor is not exactly optimal...
The spectacle of hundreds of thousands of Russians fleeing the country to avoid being sent to Ukraine shows that despite the massive propaganda effort from the Kremlin and Russian media, the people (at least the smart ones) understand that the glorious "Special Military Operation" is nothing like what they see on TV every night.