Posted on 09/22/2022 6:28:09 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
It's amazing how the Ukrainians are decimating Russian forces and equipment. This occupation will not age well for Russia and its KGB thug in Moscow.
RuZZia realistically has between 2500 and 2800 tanks. Rest are rusting scrap.
They keep sending more to Ukraine. But mostly older models.
Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said (video, Sputnik report) that 300,000 reservist will be mobilized. Conscripts and people currently studying will not be send to Ukraine.
He also said that, so far, 5,937 Russian soldiers have died during the war in Ukraine. (This number does not include the militia of the DPR and LPR, or the Wagner group, who have done most of the frontline work and thus have had higher losses.) Shoigu puts Ukrainian losses at some 62,000 killed and some 50,000 wounded. (I regard this as a low estimate.) Russia's total military reserve, people who have previously gone through military training, is 25 million. It also has the equipment to arm those forces.
There are rumors that the Ukraine is preparing for an all out offensive, mobilizing and preparing new units from Kiev and further west for one big push against the Russian and allied forces. It will take a few months to prepare for this. The Ukraine will need much more equipment and ammunition from the 'west', including 'western' tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, and has yet to train troops to be able to use it. It is likely intending to start the offensive only in spring.
The call up Russia announced now may have the intent to draw Kiev into a premature launch of its general offensive. The mobilized Russian troops will take about three months to be ready for war. Russia could thus launch its own offensive during the winter season. In the meantime constant defensive work will continue to severely degrade the Ukrainian units which are currently on or near the frontlines.
With a force of an additional 300,000 troops, far beyond the 100,000 to 150,000 engaged now in the war, the Russia forces could change their tactics from the slow grind that is happening now into a larger scale maneuver war with heavy strikes into the operational depth of the Ukrainian army.
Belarus, allied with the Russian Federation, is also in the process of getting ready for war. It could, as it had threatened before, cut of the supply lines from the 'west' into the Ukraine in the western part of that country.
Should current Ukrainian attacks on civilians and infrastructure in Russia and the Donbas regions continue, we can expect that the Russian forces will start to degrade Ukrainian infrastructure on a large scale. The electricity and railway networks would be the primary targets.
Update:
Some two weeks ago a successful Ukrainian offensive led to the retreat of Russian troops in the Kharkov region. That at least is the 'western' version of that story. A different narrative is that the Russian troops intentionally withdrew from the region to raise Russian calls for an escalation of the war. The Izium withdrawal was thus probably a mere catalyst for 'starting in earnest':
The Russian public, which at first did not fully understand why the war was necessary, has since grown in its awareness. It now understands the big game that is played against its country. It may soon demand to adjust the level of resources put into the war to the one needed for a decisive victory. Polls will clarify if or when that point is reached.
That is why Dima concludes that: "We can say that today was the best ever [..] day for the Russians in the territory of Ukraine."
It is now probably assured that they will be liberated. One way or another.
I also believe that the withdrawal from the Izium region, which left behind a significant number of pro-Russian civilians under deadly threats from fascist 'filtration' groups, will be the catalyst for a significant escalation on the Russian side.
Finally the gloves are coming off.
Moon of Alabama crap.
Kazan is the name of a city in RuZZia.
Is that where you live?
Dirty Filthy RuZZian Nazi.
I had read a number of 3000.
But that document you’re posting only includes confirmed losses. It’s thought that the actual number of losses is quite a bit higher.
I wish we understood the artillery numbers better.
Russian Officers killed in Ukraine 🇨🇿🇺🇦 @KilledInUkraine · Sep 20
1 190 killed Russian officers as of 20 September. Minimum confirmed losses. Confirmations are made via publicly available data, such as funeral notices, obituaries or Russian news sites.
Ukraine published documents reportedly from Russia's 1st Tank Army showing its losses through March 15. It lists: 61 KIA, 209 WIA, 44 MIA, and 96 taken POW. Incredibly, the 2nd Motorized Rifle Division's 1st Tank Regiment allegedly lost 45 T-72B3M tanks.
The 1st Tank Regiment reportedly had 93 tanks, so this would mean it lost almost half of them in the first three weeks of the war.
Does the Lada factory have the capacity to produce 1 million cars?
I wish we understood the artillery numbers better.
—
The 122mm tubes are short range, usually stationary & arranged in lines. They are towed, for the most part. These are relatively easy to knock out.
the 152mm tubes are self-propelled with one or two exceptions. They are long range and very dangerous - one of their tasks is to cover the 122mm batteries. They shoot and scoot.
They find their targets by drone - was the Orlan-10, which is now in short supply. The Orlan sends target coordinates in real time to 122mm battery command who relays that to the crews, and directly to 152mm SPGs, such that, once the digital info is received, all the crew has to do is push a button.
Russia has lots of 122mm tubes, but few 152mm SPGs. It is believed that the UA now has more SPGs and better ones than Russia has in total.
The destruction of so much Russian war materiel just shows how clever Putin is - too much of Russia’s defense budget was tied up in maintaining old Soviet war stocks. Now they have less to maintain! < / s >
The lower artillery losses number in the report compared to tank losses makes me think they aren’t putting as much effort into confirming artillery losses.
With more starting artillery and ease of knock out, you would think those loss numbers would be much higher.
Putin is also about to lower unemployment by sending men to the front line.
I’ve assumed ORYX catalogs 80% of RuZZian losses.
If so, then real losses are 1176/.8 = 1470
I assumed a higher multiple but without knowing how many tanks Russia has added since the initial 1200, my multiple ends up looking like Russia’s claim that “We’ve destroyed 44 of the 16 HIMARS”.
But I strongly suspect that ORYX is understating the artillery losses and hasn’t givein it the same scrutiny.
Did you put the total number of russian tanks at about 1300 back in March/April. 1300 is plus or minus. I don’t recall the exact number but I thought it was less than 1500 tanks.
If true—do you think the russians have added significantly to their tank inventory? or are they really down to about 200 tanks total for the 1000 mile front
“Previously unseen and very rare footage of the moment of impact of two M31A1 GMRLS missiles fired from the HIMARS/M270 system hitting a Russian ammunition staging point in #Kharkiv Oblast. At least one vehicle is seen to be destroyed as the munitions detonate.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1572963998563241984
RuZZia was estimated to have 1200 tanks around Ukraine in Feb for their invasion.
Maybe another 1300 available around RuZZia. Maybe 2500 in total.
The head of Dagestan, Sergei Melikov, has met with family members of Dagestanis killed in Ukraine.
Again.
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