Posted on 09/22/2022 6:28:09 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Putin has resorted to the long game. so this is going to be a long war. His calculations are that the economic disruptions around the world but most especially in Europe are going to turn catastrophic. At the same time, republicans in the USA are likely to win the house and maybe the senate. the chances are great that they will cut off funding to the Ukrainians.
Unless someone like the Norwegians step up and fund the Ukranians through their trillion dollar trust fund—the weapons flow to Ukraine will slow to a trickle.
In a long war, it doesn’t really matter if the Ukranians take back all their lost lands. Russia will not sue for peace. So the battle continues.
But judging by other commentators above on the state of the russian army, the russian way of war leaves a lot to be desired. They’re not too bright. They don’t have the US military around to help them think. Their troops are being set up to fail.
So yeah, if the Ukes could streamline their economy and eliminate their world famous corruption—that would give them a fighting chance in the long game. If they could create a military force that could do the job on the cheap—(like buying 10k small drones to swarm the russian lines and punch 10 mile wide holes in the russian line) that would be good too.
necessity is the mother of invention. wars accelerate change.
But as of now. There is no end game. This is an endless war. The destruction of Ukraine will continue apace as well as the destruction of the russian army.
Agree with your comment that now time is on the Russian’s side.
the problems involved
This is Japan in Manchuria in 1931.
do you know how rapidly the russian factories can produce tanks?
Thanks for posting that. I am finally starting to understand the genius of the Russian military and government. Today I learned that It is a good military tactic to have your army running away and leaving their weapons, ammunition, and armored vehicles behind. Who knew that the best way to "intentionally withdraw" was to just run in a panic.
I’m taking great delight in see the RuZZians fight over the draft.
https://mobile.twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1572946264660275201
“Europe are going to turn catastrophic” - Wrong. Maybe light rationing in some countries, but EU will survive the winter.
“republicans in the USA are likely to win the house and maybe the senate. the chances are great that they will cut off funding to the Ukrainians.” - Wrong. There is overwhelming bi-partisan support for Ukraine weapons.
200-250 per year prior to the war, but with sanctions RuZZia may have trouble getting parts to produce them (computer chips, specialized parts)
“Do I need the sarcasm tag?”
Nope. Got it without the tag.
The Russian army has a large inventory of artillery cannons. However the limiting factor for their use of them is how effectively they can supply the artillery teams with ammunition.
Hitting the ammunition depots and the trucks makes the artillery cannons useless.
Draft ‘going according to plan’?
“local residents blocked the federal highway near Babayurt (Dagestan)”
https://mobile.twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1572944213263941638
Nothing like the smell of a burning helo in the morning.
“A Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter was shot down today in #Zaporizhzhia Oblast by the Ukrainian National Guard, apparently using a 9K38 Igla MANPADS.
It manages to land, whilst burning heavily- whilst the crew may have survived, the airframe will not.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1572975784720998404
agree the problem is not with natural gas or getting cold or rationing.
the problem is the dollar.
there is a deeper game afoot. It has to do with shifting the world away from the dollar as the reserve currency.
right now the US fed is raising interest rates to fight against inflation.
that forces up the price of the dollar against other country currencies—especially europe and japan. that means their interest payments on their debt goes much higher. somewhere some big financial institutions are going to break. Likely that will be in europe.
that will create a system shock.
the russian’s are actually in better shape financially than the west.
Judging by what I’ve read on this thread—the russians will not be able to field their army with modern weapons after another six months or so. their weapons will be used up and they won’t be able to get the high tech parts from the west they need to make new weapons.
On the other hand —the chances of funding from the USA for Ukraine will decline if the republicans take control of the congress in november as expected.
so the greatest liklihood at this moment is that after the first of the year the arms flow to ukraine will slow to a trickle—unless more local players—like the deep pocketed norweigens step up.
the chief danger for both the ukrainians and the russians is that next year both will run out of weapons.
More T62s heading to the front.
“A new batch of cold-war era T62-M tanks (MY1983) for newly mobilized Russian soldiers is on its way to Ukraine. Photo taken on Sep. 11 in Millerovo, Rostov region”
https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1572547554675687428
“Anonymous hackers hacked into the website of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and leaked the data of 305,925 people who are likely to be mobilized in the first of three waves of mobilization.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1572976377527422976
Wrong. There is overwhelming bi-partisan support for Ukraine weapons.
That’s true at this moment.
But in the future not so much. Different players are coming into the new congress.
This is Japan in Manchuria in 1931.
In your analogy is Russia Japan and Ukraine Manchuria?
Yep.
It may not start the conflaguration, but it starts putting the wheels in motion.
“I strongly suspect that ORYX is understating the artillery losses” (relative to tank losses)
That would make sense, because artillery generally is so much further behind Russian lines, and inherently more difficult to confirm.
I’m not sure that Manchuria and Japan are the right analogy since Japan was technologically superior to Manchuria.
But agree that the wheels are in motion.
“....CIA/MI6 fronts like ORYX, Bellingcat, and the war-mongering Kagan family propaganda mill The Institute for the Study of War have pumped out...”
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