So, what does this mean?
Just early today, it seemed pretty clear that Russia is laying the groundwork for full mobilization after all. Full mobilization would mean dropping the conceit that the invasion of Ukraine is just a “special military operation” and instead declaring war. But war can’t be declared without a reason.
The reason is simple. “We’re losing”
And it seemed perfectly clear why? Russian reserve is 32 million people. It is more than the current population of Ukriane. Why one needs to fully mobilize?
The propaganda is so disattached from reality.
All the volunteers and paid soldiers will now fall under Russian command. Better oversight, more unity.
That screw up leading to retreat could have shown how bad their communications have been, chechens, militias, and soldiers all under separate umbrellas of leadership.
It wasn’t working.
And Belarus is preparing. Maybe other CSTO countries will join an actual war declaration.
It sounds like the Russian Duma and Federal Assembly are trying to create a legal construct to get around the proper mobilization laws, by partial or selective mobilization. At the same time, there is a hesitancy to commit. My guess is they want the ability on paper while making up their minds.
It is possible they are preparing two options. The first is to abandon the invasion and find a way to politically survive (smart). The second is to mobilize in all but name and escalate (suicidal). All of which could change tomorrow.