Once Putin is gone, the successor can safe face and withdraw.
And then remove the sanctions.
I would agree to some point. He’s not in great health, and he might linger around for two more years, with the ‘war’ in some state of existing.
Sanctions-wise, once they exit (after Putin passes)...sanctions go away.
Russians who exited the country (the million or so)? I don’t think they are eager to return.
On the natural gas business with Europe...they can turn on Nord Stream I and sell that without issue at that point. I doubt that the NS II pipe will be turned on for several years (maybe until issues pop up with NS I).
Distrust will brew for years, and this SPD/Green ‘wonderful’ eyes toward Russian leadership are pretty much ended in Germany.
One odd point, there’s long-range natural gas contracts being signed with other countries. I doubt the Russians can ever get above 25-percent with the Germans again.
Once Putin is gone, the successor can safe face and withdraw.
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There is no peace faction in the Russian hierarchy - they were all ‘eliminated’ recently.