Ukraine: military situation update with maps, August 24, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••denotes transcribed dialogue.
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Extras:
Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Strikes Train Station On Independence Day
Ukraine’s allies showered it with weapons for its 31st birthday as Russian missiles struck cities and a railway station.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russia-strikes-train-station-on-independence-day
Rail car damage - image:
https://images.spot.im/image/upload/q_70,fl_lossy,dpr_3,h_262,w_500,c_limit/v200/dcfb4b48409161997a80030700b1b2e3
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NASAMS Air Defenses, 310k Artillery Rounds In Huge $3B Ukraine Aid Package
‘Vampire’ counter-drone systems are also included in the new tranche of aid, which is the largest single American package announced to date.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/nasams-air-defenses-310k-artillery-rounds-in-huge-3b-ukraine-aid-package
Excerpt:
Article notes that HIMARS can fire AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles.
Six more NASAMS (National Advanced Surface to Air Missile Systems) along with unspecified “additional munitions” for them;
VAMPIRE Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems”;
Unspecified Laser-guided rocket systems;
Up to 245,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition;
As many as 65,000 rounds of 120mm mortar ammunition;
Up to 24 unspecified counter-artillery radars;
Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment.
“... depending on how it is configured, NASAMS has the ability to provide various levels of both short and medium-range air defense capacity. It does seem most likely that Ukraine’s NASAMS will fire AIM-120s, at least initially, as there is a solid supply chain for these missiles and the country is most in need now of extra area air defense capacity.
“With eight total systems, the Ukrainian armed forces will be able to provide immediate protection against various aerial threats, including aircraft, cruise missiles, and drones, at a greater number of total locations, such as cities or specific high-value facilities ...
“Ukraine is expected to take delivery of the first two systems in the next two to three months ... the NASAMS for Ukraine are not coming from American stocks ...
“The Vampire counter-drone systems ... is a version of the company’s new Vehicle-Agnostic Modular Palletized ISR Rocket Equipment system, or VAMPIRE. At least as it has been publicly shown so far, VAMPIRE consists of a four-round launcher for 70mm laser-guided rockets, such as the Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System II (APKWS II), as well as a sensor turret with electro-optical and infrared cameras, centralized control system, and dedicated power supply.”
(Edit: Two man set up in 2 hours. System shown mounted on ordinary Toyota pickup. Good for home defense against raging hungry city mobs.)
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••Energy:
Another producer of fertilizer nitrogen fertilizer in Poland has stopped its called Azote; its separate from that subsidiary we discussed yesterday; this is actually one of the major producers in Poland. The problems are starting to grow bigger and bigger. The price for natural gas is still holding above US$3,000 per thousand cubic meters. One of the largest export terminals of LNG Texas delayed restarting their facilities until March of 2023.
Yesterday I was expected till mid-November 2022; it looks like it’s going to be even longer, and that is about 20% of U.S export capacity. That’s gonna keep the situation in Europe with natural gas much worse for longer, and that’s gonna create huge economic pressures on society.
••Russian Attacks:
No longer are huge columns of trucks, tanks, IFVs. Typical approach is artillery fire, followed by small groups: maybe 3-4 tanks IFVs 10-30 troops accompany them. Try to minimize their losses by using tanks as assault guns: if troops hit resistance, they send the assault guns back in. Tanks used to create encirclements, breaches, deep penetrations, etc, not tank-on-tank warfare.
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Summary:
No major changes.
Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead: no changes
- North Donbass area: no changes
- Donetsk West: no changes.
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes
1. Kharkiv: No changes.
••Brach, Kursk, Sumy artillery still sporadic. Otherwise quiet. Not Russian priority
2. Izyum bridgehead: No changes.
••Quiet.
3. North Donbass: No changes.
••Small attacks - low intensity fighting.
4. West of Donetsk: No changes.
••Low intensity fighting. Main offensive trying to break through UA lines in Pisky area.
5. Vugledar - Velyka Novosilka, Gulyapole:
••Main action here to create southern pincer shifted axis toward east for some reason.
6. Kherson bridgehead:
••Attacks toward toward NNW and some toward W. Orcs control south of rail line; UA north of the line. Next direction of attack will be toward Pervomais’ke and the road and rail bridge there. Launching pad for attack on Mykolaiv.
Did you see this?
“No longer are huge columns of trucks, tanks,”
Lost too many tanks for that approach...
The big Freeport LNG export terminal in Texas is not expected to be fully operational (100%) until March, after the second dock is completed.
The first dock however, which has 85% of the capacity, is currently expected to start operating this November. It was expected in October, but has slipped a month.
The Germans are going gangbusters on increasing their LNG import capacity. They are building a 26km pipeline from the port at Willhelmshaven to a storage facility, normally a 5-6 year project, by year’s end. All the stops have been pulled out. Environmental Impact Statements have been waived, rather than delayed, by a special law passed and signed
Spending is off the hook to ramp up LNG capacity globally - now on track to increase 20 times over 2020, by 2024. 20 times, not 20%. Iraq started exporting LNG for the first time this year. Mozambique is on track to start this year as well (lots of investment going in there) Qatar, already in the top three exporters has plans to increase capacity 2/3rds more over the coming decade.
The invasion of the Ukraine was a watershed event in the LNG market. It is a shockingly rapid transition, by historical norms. Russia is the huge loser. Biggest winners are the USA and Qatar (in total dollars, in percentage terms, places like Algeria, Mozambique and possibly Egypt are poised for growth booms).
Russia had the third largest LNG expansion plans in the World at the start of the year (Arctic LNG 2 project), but those projects are now on hold as foreign partners (TotalEnergies and JOGMEC) have halted future spending. Even the Prime construction contractor (Linde) has walked off the job.