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Russia will lose but it could take another year.

The only way Russia can win is if the west loses it's resolve and agrees to Russia's demands to negotiate a cease fire and lock in their territorial gains. I don't see that happening.

16 HIMARS is not a lot considering the length of the front. But it is allowing Ukraine to destroy Russia's command and ammo centers. And it's a start. I think we should ramp it to 100 HIMARS. I think I've heard the plan is 30 in the short term.

Dispite having gained control of 20% of Ukraine's territory, (Not sure if that counts Crimea or not), Several things are working against the Russians at this point:

Russia has lost at least 955 of the 1200 tanks they started with.
Russia has not been able to establish Air Superiority and they are unlikely to be able to in the future. They are losing aircraft, they are having to cannibalize aircraft for parts. And Ukraine is being supplied with more stinger and javelin missles is about to be supplied with significantly more aircraft.
Ukraine has demonstrated the ability to pull off major strikes deep behind the front lines. Note the recent attacks deep in Crimea.
Ukraine has been successful at disrupting Russia supply lines.
Ukraine still has a better troop morale than does Russia.
Russia has been deprived of a lot of experienced officers both as casualties and from sackings.
Ukraine has the support of most of the world.
Sanctions are disrupting Russia's ability to repair and replace military equipment.
Russia is spread pretty thin in most of the occupied territories with the exception of Kherson.
Supply lines and exits from Kherson have been cut by Ukraine.

Russia still has a couple of advantages:

They still are at an advantage in a basic artillary war, unless HIMARS changes that.
Russia has a greater stockpile of weapons and ammunition that does Ukraine. Russia doesn't have more than NATO, but NATO has been slow at ramping up the quality and quantity of weapons being supplied to Ukraine.

My outlook:

I see a major push to retake Kherson coming before winter. There are still 20,000 Russian soldiers there, but supplies have been cut.
Doubtful whether Ukraine will be able to make much progress taking back the eastern provinces prior to winter.
Not sure how much fighting is going to occur during the winter.
I suspect winter will be a lot harder for the Russians than the Ukranians.

Disclaimer: DannyTN has never served in the armed forces. Nor traveled beyond the USA's borders. But he plays an armchair General on FR.

He! I like the disclaimer!

On your bullets:

1. I wouldn’t say Ukraine has most of the support of the world. Most of the world knew very little about Ukraine before the invasion - I suspect they’d have ignored it, like Chechnya and Georgia. Ukraine is only different because Russia ITSELF can’t stop talking about the mission creep... one minute the war is about dealing with 5000 nazis in Donbas, the next it’s about beach front property all the way to Moldova, and then it’s simply step one of their Second Great Patriotic War mission to grab Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Moldova.

2. Another thing that Russia has to worry about is, which side will the DISPLACED “ethic Russian” peoples not actually from Russia choose to fight on if they are given no other choice but to fight.

There’s a refugee family in my town, from Kherson, whose apartment block was completely taken over by out-of-towners. They’ve been completely disowned by their relatives in Russia. They had everything in Kherson stolen from them by the Russians. Even if they went back, they wouldn’t get a vote in the Russian referendum, and it’s highly unlikely they’d enjoy life under the administration that has been brutalizing friends of theirs who didn’t get out in time.

They have been stung by family inside Russia who’re openly denouncing them as traitors to Mother Russia simply for choosing to flee west instead of east. It’s in stark contrast to the sympathy and hospitality they’re getting even from the Ukrainian speaking community here.

Guess whose side they’re on now. Clue: it’s not Putin’s side anymore. They’ve been fundraising to buy more Bayraktars.

Putin can’t really complain. He knows there’s no motive more powerful than revanchism. And BOY has he inspired revanchism in the Russian Ukrainian community... to switch sides, and support Zelenskyy.

Thank you for the summary of Neocon/lib, Nato, WEF, CIA/MI6 disinformation. FWIW, I believe you are sincere, unlike the trolls here. I wonder if you will be able to eventually accept you have been misled. To take the most easily “debunkable” item on your list: “Ukraine has the support of most of the world.” How many African countries have declared support for Ukraine and sanctions? South American countries? China? Middle East? South Asia? You will find some supporting the RF, most remaining officially neutral, and only a very few offering lipservice.

The whole Kherson thing you repeat is terribly far from the truth, too. It’s a fantasy from A Daily Mail article that was probably “informed by” MI6. To understand why the claims are silly, you’d have to know what HIMARS can and can’t do (roadbed potholes, yes, structural damage, no), how many HIMARS systems are likely still left and how many missiles remain, how good the S300 and S400 anti missile systems are, how many pontoon bridges the Russians have as a back up, etc. Use Google earth and look at the terrain approaching Kherson region from the west; it’s a steppe. An advance there would be worse than the charge of the Light Brigade. If you were following more closely, you’d know that the Kiev government has as much as said that the claim about the upcoming Kherson offensive was a feint to draw Russian forces from the Donbass.

Do you have any idea how important Bakhmut is? It’s in the process of being taken methodically street by street, block by block. That’s also the general situation in rest of the contested area of the Donbass.

There’s a lot more, but just wait and see, and try to be skeptical of the Western “narrative”. Remember the Covid hoax? The Russian collusion hoax, etc.?

Like it or not, the Russians will probably end up dictating terms.