Posted on 08/13/2022 3:40:40 PM PDT by thecodont
Republicans will, easily, have more than 230 seats in House after the election and probably far more than that.
If things really swing the GOP’s way between now and November, 230 seats might be reachable. Otherwise, 220-225 might be a more realistic likelihood. For the Senate, the Repubs will have to fight to maintain the current 50-50 split. PA has essentially be handed to the dems (the weird lust up there for Fetterman is a headscratcher), so there’ll need to be two upsets elsewhere.
The rats will lose the House but gain in the Senate. That is my prediction.
The Republicans will have similar number of seats that they had after 2010 and 2014.
Why wouldn't they given Biden's approval ratings?
I agree with the comparison to 2014 re the House. GOP gained 13 seats that year. That’s pretty much in line with what will likely shake out here.
“The rats will lose the House but gain in the Senate. That is my prediction.”
Yep. A small majority in the House for the Rs and +1 for the Ds in the Senate.
This is pure psyops. The weight the rodents will be carrying into Election Day will be much greater than it is today.
Nate Silver guest right in 2008 and has been living on that one hit wonder ever since.
The raid has super charged the even high Republican enthusiasm and the independents’ enthusiasm to vote Republican.
In 2016 Hillary Clinton lost with 89% of the Black vote. Joey Fingers who is the face of the Democrat/communist party is gertting mid 60s support from Blacks. The Hispanic vote has been erased as an advantage for the rodents. Hispanics are now a +8 for Republicans - even they were a -8 it would be an important improvement for the Republicans.
Joey is under water by 35 points to 18-34 year old mom’s basement voters. The only bright spot there for the rodents is that they will stay home instead of voting Republican.
White men and all independents hate the Democrat/communists and 8.5% inflation and their blindness to the fact that voters see right through the climate change hoax finish them off.
Even Cook and Sabato are saying it’s over for the rodents and things will only get worse as the last 90 days to Election Day run out.
You don't because I was referring to the number of seats Republicans had after 2010 and 2014. After the 2014 mid-terms, Republicans had 247 seats in the House. It was 234 after 2010.
There is no scenario where Republicans don't end with more than 230 seats in House. RCP has the Republicans at 222 right now with 32 tossups. It's more reasonable to the the Republicans will end up taking at least half of the tossup seats and, probably, two thirds of them given Biden's approval numbers.
Why in the world would you believe that the Republicans will do worse than the RCP projections right now?
I was agreeing in the context of the number of seats won in 2014. And I’m not predicting less than the 222 number predicted by RCP.
It’s all going to be about who has the momentum going into November.
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