Posted on 08/13/2022 3:40:40 PM PDT by thecodont
In 2020, we took pains to emphasize that, although he was a significant underdog in our forecast, then-President Donald Trump could absolutely win reelection. Frankly, I’m not sure we’ve taken the same care this year when it comes to Democrats and the U.S. House. Their chances to hold the House started out in the Trump-in-2020 vicinity when we launched our forecast — 13 percent — and now they’ve risen to 20 percent amidst an improving political environment for Democrats.
It’s still not terribly likely Democrats win control of the House. But it also means that a GOP takeover is far from a foregone conclusion. So, let’s talk about that 20 percent chance.
Democrats started out with 222 House seats following the 2020 election, four more than the number required for a majority. According to our model, there’s a 7 percent chance that Democrats wind up with fewer than 222 seats after November but still enough seats to maintain a narrow majority. Meanwhile, there’s a 13 percent chance that they actually gain seats.1 Those numbers combined give them their 20 percent chances.
Time for a quick historical gut check. In 19 midterm elections since World War II, the president’s party lost fewer than five seats in the House once, in 1962. And they gained seats twice, in 1998 and 2002. That means three out of 19 times the president’s party would have a successful enough midterm to keep the House, or 16 percent of the time. That squares pretty well with our model’s 20 percent estimate. Of course, the closer we get to the election, the more we can rely on data specific to this year — but it’s good that we’re somewhere in the ballpark.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
He DID win re-election.
Nate Silver is a fraud and an Establishment gasbag.
Sounds to me like the national Fraud Machine is constructing a Narrative to cover for this November's fraud.
Does he weight for the rampant Democrat Mail in cheating?
If so, he wants us to get used to the idea. Democrats won't be able to cheat in places like Florida and Texas. Have to look at where they can get away. Either with stuffing mailboxes or old fashioned gerrymandering. I think there is still one GOP Representative in Maryland. I am aware that there are many lawsuits. But that won't stop the Democrats.
Apparently, Nate Silver doesn’t know who won the last election, much less who will win the next one.
Will This Be An Asterisk* Election?
—
No it will be an exclamation !! election as in: it was supposed to be a Red wave instead of a Blue one!!
Nate Silver’s correct predictions are about the same percentage as Paul Krugman’s and Donny Deutsch’s.
Famed statistician Nate Silver predicts Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election, in a forecast that estimates her to have a 79 percent chance of taking the White House—dwarfing Donald Trump's predicted 20 percent chance of a win in November.
"Famed" statistician my @$$...
I am thinking their will be major cheating in the mid-terms... so if it is not one person/one vote, what exactly are we doing at the polls? Hoping our fractional or cancelled-out participation makes a difference?
Just like no candidate has ever won a presidential election without OHio…….
Its called election fraud. Count on it.
No way this evil clown regime can win unless they cheat. And that is exactly what they will do.
They will do it, deny it and as usual, we will fold like cheap suits and “keep on hopin’” for a fair one next time.
It is a monotonous and depressing cycle.
How will average American voters respond?
The GOP should be able to eke out a slim majority in the House.
Since there is NO legitimate.president at the time, what does it matter?
2020 was the “asterisk election”, and Joey Biden is the “asterisk prez.”.
Battle for the House: 222 seats likely or lean Republican, 181 likely or lean Democrat with 32 tossups.
This more propaganda from Silver. It's an attempt to motivate the Democrat base to get out and vote.
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