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To: BeauBo
Trainloads of more dead.

You're a deluded idiot with Russian blood lust.

Here, let someone smarter and more informed than you provide you with some education on what's really going on. Former CIA analyst, Larry Johnson

https://sonar21.com/while-establishment-media-pushes-delusional-narrative-on-ukraine-us-military-brass-now-recognizes-the-war-is-lost/

WHILE ESTABLISHMENT MEDIA PUSHES DELUSIONAL NARRATIVE ON UKRAINE, US MILITARY BRASS NOW RECOGNIZES THE WAR IS LOST

You got to give the New York Times and the Washington Post reporters credit for one thing–they are tenacious in the art of self-delusion. They report the news without understanding the implications and contradictions in their reporting.

First up, the clueless the New York Times:

Russians, Risking Isolation in the South, Build Up for Ukrainian Attack—

The Ukrainians have been setting the stage for a broad counteroffensive in the southern Kherson region for weeks, and recent long-range rocket strikes have left thousands of Russian soldiers stationed west of the Dnipro River, in and around the port city of Kherson, in a precarious position, largely cut off from Russian strongholds to the east.

But Russia is now moving “the maximum number” of forces to the southern front in the Kherson region, the head of Ukraine’s National Security Council told Ukrainian television late Wednesday. The official, Oleksiy Danilov, described “a very powerful movement of their troops” to the front in Kherson.

While Western weapons have poured into the country, Ukraine said more arms were still needed and ammunition remained limited. Some Ukrainian officials have grown increasingly frustrated with what they believe is the slow pace of weapons deliveries from Western allies. Donor nations are training Ukrainian soldiers to use the new equipment, but that, too, remains a work in progress.

“Just give them weapons and let them work,” said Natalya Gumenyuk, the spokeswoman for Ukraine’s southern military command, which is responsible for the Kherson offensive.

Note the source for the “news” that Russian soldiers are stranded and in a “precarious” position–it is all from official Ukrainian spokes-models. If the Ukrainian military really had the Russian army on the ropes, why is Ukraine pleading for more arms and ammunition? Seriously, the United States has supplied Ukraine with more weapons in the last four months then it provided to the once invincible Afghan army and Ukraine has exhausted those supplies?

The Ukrainian military no longer has a fixed-wing jet fighter/bomber capability. Ukraine does not have an intact tank regiment. What is it going to do? An old school, over the top a la World War I mass charge by Ukrainian troops? Launching HIMARS at one bridge is not a game changer.

The real interesting tidbit in the NY Times report is the claim, again sourced to Ukrainian officials, that Russia is moving the maximum number of troops to Kherson. How can Russia do that if it is struggling to attract new recruits to fill its devastated ranks? And where are those troops coming from? Not the Donbas.

According to the Washington Post, President Zelensky wants all civilians still living in the part of the Donetsk Republic still controlled by Ukraine to get the hell out:

Zelensky issued a mandatory evacuation order for civilians still living in the war-torn eastern region of Donetsk, saying many were refusing to leave. “There are hundreds of thousands of people, tens of thousands of children … many people refuse to leave … but it really needs to be done,” he said in his nightly address. Russian forces have seized large areas of Donetsk but observers say its offensive has slowed.

If Ukraine was prevailing and pushing the Russians back, why must the inhabitants of Donetsk flee to the western part of Ukraine? In fact, according to the Post reporters, Russia has “seized large areas of Donetsk”. What Zelensky knows is that the folks who still live in the Donbas are Russian speakers and welcome the Russian troops as liberators. If you feared the Russians and were living in Donetsk and the Russians were approaching your town, would Zelensky have to order you to get out? No. It is ridiculous.

One more indicator of desperation on the part of Zelensky. Why ask people who allegedly support you to abandon territory if you, i.e. Zelensky, have a legitimate chance of reversing the Russian offensive? You don’t. You call on them to take up arms and fight the Russians. That is not happening.

Meanwhile, back in the United States, US military analysts are briefing the chain of command that Ukraine is coming apart at the seams. The boys and girls at the Defense Intelligence Agency can no longer hide the fact that Ukraine is not winning and has no path forward to victory. This growing acknowledgement of Ukraine’s dire situation is likely to generate push back from Austin and Milley to stop recklessly pouring more US weapons and equipment into the rapidly growing black hole that is Ukraine.

16 posted on 08/02/2022 9:30:37 AM PDT by Kazan
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To: Kazan

“Trainloads of more dead.”

How many KIA would you estimate from 75,000 more artillery shells?

Keep in mind that we are talking about the accurate Western guns, not the old Soviet stuff.

Certainly, it will be much more than truckloads.

After the trains unload, send them back for more, because that Artillery is just going to keep coming.

I’m estimating that 75,000 is about two weeks worth, from the USA alone. Everybody in NATO has 155mm stockpiles, and manufacturing capacity is fairly widespread.

Putin chose this. We have to fight back.

He just bit off more than Russia can chew, and now it is going to choke on it.

Get your troops out of the neighbor’s territory, or you are just sending them to an early death. The Artillery supply is effectively endless there.


18 posted on 08/02/2022 9:50:26 AM PDT by BeauBo
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To: Kazan
"You call on them to take up arms and fight the Russians. That is not happening."

Hello, it happened on the first day of the war, when President Zelensky ordered a full mobilization.

It takes months to organize, train and equip newly mobilized soldiers - which would mean that we are now entering the time window where such new units could be sent into battle.

Coincidentally perhaps, NATO planners have timed their deliveries of heavy weaponry and Armor to equip many of these new units for counter attack missions. Poland alone has sent hundreds of tanks (T-72 variants)

Indeed, the deep strike and battlefield shaping that would be among the early phases of such an Operational Plan are now occurring in the South, and the President of the Ukraine has publicly ordered the Military to conduct a "de-occupation" Operation there. Russia happens to be redeploying its Regular units there as well (last week), leaving the Donbas mostly to the local militias and mercenaries.

The Dniper River is about a kilometer wide around Kherson, where about 20,000 Russian forces are estimated to be nearing isolation on the Western bank, with the bridges now out of operation. The pontoon bridge they tried building was hit last night.

Any future pontoon bridge attempt is a trivially easy target for a HIMARS, or M-270 MLRS, or a MARS II MLRS - all of which fire the same rockets and all of which are now operating with Ukrainian forces. The accuracy of those rockets is effectively one shot, one hit. None of the rockets fired at the Antonovsky Bridge went into the water - all hit the target. One HIMARS strike (two six packs of rockets) that was fired drew two lines of pretty evenly spaced craters across the lanes of traffic. These are not like the old Soviet Grad MLRS, that you kind of spray randomly around a square mile.

The counter attack is coming, in August, and it is no surprise to anyone following the developments (Military staffs on both sides). The only thing that is certain about the outcome, is that casualties will be high.

22 posted on 08/02/2022 10:58:05 AM PDT by BeauBo
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To: Kazan
What Zelensky knows is that the folks who still live in the Donbas are Russian speakers and welcome the Russian troops as liberators. If you feared the Russians and were living in Donetsk and the Russians were approaching your town, would Zelensky have to order you to get out? No. It is ridiculous.

The one thing clearly proven by this invasion once and for all is that most Ukrainians, including those in the east don't want to be part of Putin's authoritarian Russia. As for why there is now mandatory evacuation, it is because the Ukrainians wised up. They know anyone left in the occupied territories is going to be 'voluntarily' conscripted and used as canon fodder against the Ukrainian army.

In 100 Days, A Separatist Army In Ukraine Lost Half Its Troops

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/06/13/a-separatist-army-in-ukraine-lost-half-its-troops-in-100-days/?sh=b0efd13dbef1

25 posted on 08/02/2022 1:14:34 PM PDT by tlozo (Better to Die on Your Feet than Live on Your Knees)
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