French-provided VAB troop carriers just spotted in Ukraine
In mid-June, French Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu said that France will send “significant quantities” of armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.
Phoenix Ghost or just a Ghost?
“Video of a loitering munition strike by Ukraine’s 28th Mechanized Brigade on a Russian 82mm mortar position. The graphic on the video suggests this was by a US-made Phoenix Ghost loitering munition.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1554192348556451840
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, July 31- August 1, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••denotes transcribed dialogue.
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Extras:
Russia Is Building ‘Ghost Bridges’ With Radar Reflectors In Ukraine
After two strategic bridges in occupied Kherson were crated by Ukraine, Russia deployed radar reflectors as a crude and puzzling countermeasure.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-building-ghost-bridges-with-radar-reflectors-in-ukraine
Both Bridges Image:
https://www.thedrive.com/uploads/2022/08/02/Screen-Shot-2022-08-01-at-5.19.17-PM.png?auto=webp&optimize=high&quality=70&width=3840
Rail Bridge Image:
https://www.thedrive.com/uploads/2022/08/02/Rail-Bridge-HIMARS-Strike-Ukraine.jpg?auto=webp&optimize=high&quality=70&width=3840
Ghost Bridge, aka Radar Reflectors Image:
https://www.thedrive.com/uploads/2022/08/01/Screen-Shot-2022-08-01-at-2.59.03-PM.png?auto=webp&optimize=high&quality=70&width=3840
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Drone Strike On Black Sea Fleet Headquarters Likely A Sign Of What’s To Come
Despite Ukrainian denials from some quarters, officials in Moscow say that the drone strike was launched from within Russia-held territory.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/drone-strike-on-black-sea-fleet-headquarters-likely-a-sign-of-whats-to-come
Excerpt:
While unconfirmed by other sources, a Russian politician, Olga Kovitidi, claimed that the drone was launched “from the territory of Sevastopol.” Kovitidi, a member of Russia’s upper house of parliament, told Russia’s RIA news agency yesterday that “Urgent search operations are being conducted in the city to track down the organizers of this terrorist act. They will be found by the evening.”
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••Site Update:
WiU will be traveling until the 4th - updates will be sporadic if at all. No episode tomorrow. Any videos posted will be short and only deal with the frontline.
WiU Commenter:
The road over the Nova Kakhovka dam was hit tonight along with bridges and pontoons and the ferry. Kherson bridge railway bridge, pontoon and ferry was hit, and Nova Kakhovka dam was hit along with Darivka bridge and pontoon ... wait for updated Maxar satellite footage. all we know is reported explosions at bridge locations in Kherson, Darivka and Nova Kakhovka ... HIMARS earlier took out some radars and SAMs toward the railroad attack. I wonder if shooting at the railroad was just probing to see what air defenses will shoot at the missiles, and see where they are ... Ukraine military gets real time American satellite intel updated every 15 minutes.
••Military Situation of the Bridges:
The Russian command built the ferry next to the Antonisky bridge. They’re using a ferry (Edit: its actually more like a motorized barge than a ferry boat.) ; that’s obviously a opportunity a way to address the problem. It’s still not so not solving the problem. The throughput of the ferry is much much much lower than the bridge, but and again it’s also vulnerable to attack.
Also there was attack on on railroad line that we reported about five days ago from Crimea to to Kherson at the station called Brelivkam. It wasn’t clear where the hit was, it turns out it was just a railroad station itself; so it’s damaged significantly, but this railroad damage can be relatively quickly repaired and does not create lasting strategic problem for Russia.
This might be useful as a tactical tool when once you launch offensive where every one day means a lot like 24 hours. it’s the situation is like every hour time time is precious right in that case you can do that and you can use it and there is strategic effect from from those hits but just generally as a preparation general preparation there is definitely no la no long lasting first of all and there is no strategic effect because of that so this is just a quick update on what’s going on with all of this bridges.
They are in some state of disrepair and Russian troops are trying to find solutions. One is pontoon bridge then then the ferry is another one. We skeptical about their ability of the Russian command to continue providing necessary supplies.
(Edit: Maxar Satellite images show there is no pontoon bridge, just radar reflectors that appear to radar like a pontoon bridge. So there is only the barge ferry - a very slow, awkward, and cumbersome method of transportation.)
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Summary:
No changes Russian command is using pontoon bridges and ferries to address problem of destroyed bridges.
Russian troops established ferry next to Antonivsky bridge.
Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead: no changes
- North Donbass area: no changes
- Donetsk West: no changes
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.
1. Kharkiv: No changes.
2. Izyum bridgehead. No changes.
••Small probing Orc attack.
••UA 79th brigade whereabouts of most of them unknown - they have suffered heavy casualties in theist battles. UA 25th likely pulled to North Donbas front.
3. North Donbass: No changes.
••Russian command abandoned attack on north front line. Now concentration on taking Bakhmut, 5km from the front. If they succeed, then the northern area will be outflanked and the UA troops will be forced to retreat to the top of the next chain of hills.
••In the south, Orc attacks focused on one area. So far no success.
4. West of Donetsk: No changes.
••Russian troops concentrated and focused on very narrow section around Donetsk airport. Does not look like Orcs have enough troops and have fewer troops then UA. Donbas, the land of coal mines, good defensive positions.
••Orc troops, in past 5 days, managed to destroy one UA position along the heavily fortified line, gaining about 1km in that area only and, southward, took another 300 meters or so.
••Orc troops thrown back into battle without a meaningful refreshment.
5. Vugledar: No changes.
6. Velyka Novosilka - Gulyapole stretch of frontline. No changes.
7. Kherson bridgehead: No
••UA 36 NB has been rebuilt. Probably back at the front with 35th on Kherson bridgehead.
$550 Million in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine Aug. 1, 2022
1. 75,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition;
2. Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3112377/550-million-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
French-provided VAB troop carriers just spotted in Ukraine
In mid-June, French Minister of the Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu said that France will send “significant quantities” of armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.
I saw a report that Russia has burned through about $200 Billion of its foreign reserves since this invasion started.
Out of the ~$600 billion before the war, another ~$300 billion is frozen in the West, leaving about $100 billion to go.
At this burn rate, they are on the verge of some hard financial breaks - crisis - in about a couple of more months.
Unlike the first few months of the war, total oil and gas revenues seem to have now passed peak, and are declining. It looks like oil prices are no longer rising, shipments are down marginally, and gas volumes are dropping to just a small fraction of their pre-war levels. Even though European gas prices will likely spike a bit more, these dramatically lower volumes mean total revenues are likely to continue to drop further.
Even when oil and gas revenues were rising on the initial price surge, Russia was having to burn through foreign reserves. They should be cutting off expenditures now (like Europe is conserving gas), so that they will be able to extend paying for the absolutely essential minimums for a bit longer. Desperate times. They are already well down the road of a ruble printing spree, to cover domestic expenses.
The Russian Government’s debts are now in default, and they are substantially cut off from credit. When the foreign reserves run out, they will increasingly have to just do without. Some of their oil exports might be bartered, rather than produce foreign currency revenue, but the total pie will still be shrinking.
Imports have already dropped over 50%, and the lack of a lot of those items (like semiconductor chips) will have secondary and tertiary effects throughout their economy. Hard times are on the way to Nova North Korea (previously known as Russia). Real hard times.
The Ukrainian economy is heading into crisis this Fall as well, but the West is likely to pass the hat, and also extend credit (already underway).
Get the popcorn ready, and send more Artillery!