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I saw a report that Russia has burned through about $200 Billion of its foreign reserves since this invasion started.

Out of the ~$600 billion before the war, another ~$300 billion is frozen in the West, leaving about $100 billion to go.

At this burn rate, they are on the verge of some hard financial breaks - crisis - in about a couple of more months.

Unlike the first few months of the war, total oil and gas revenues seem to have now passed peak, and are declining. It looks like oil prices are no longer rising, shipments are down marginally, and gas volumes are dropping to just a small fraction of their pre-war levels. Even though European gas prices will likely spike a bit more, these dramatically lower volumes mean total revenues are likely to continue to drop further.

Even when oil and gas revenues were rising on the initial price surge, Russia was having to burn through foreign reserves. They should be cutting off expenditures now (like Europe is conserving gas), so that they will be able to extend paying for the absolutely essential minimums for a bit longer. Desperate times. They are already well down the road of a ruble printing spree, to cover domestic expenses.

The Russian Government’s debts are now in default, and they are substantially cut off from credit. When the foreign reserves run out, they will increasingly have to just do without. Some of their oil exports might be bartered, rather than produce foreign currency revenue, but the total pie will still be shrinking.

Imports have already dropped over 50%, and the lack of a lot of those items (like semiconductor chips) will have secondary and tertiary effects throughout their economy. Hard times are on the way to Nova North Korea (previously known as Russia). Real hard times.

The Ukrainian economy is heading into crisis this Fall as well, but the West is likely to pass the hat, and also extend credit (already underway).

Get the popcorn ready, and send more Artillery!