Posted on 07/25/2022 4:08:27 AM PDT by karpov
Future (substantive) coal retirements likely on the horizon Our recent conversations with a wide range of industry stakeholders including environmental groups, regulated utilities, and independent power producers (public & private) highlighted the potential far-reaching consequences of the EPA’s Good Neighbor Plan and CSAPR Update. We examined the proposed rule changes and their potential impact on over 65GW of coal plants in the impacted 25 states: 33 GW with no announced retirement date, 15 GW with post-2026 retirements, and 19 GW with pre2026 retirements. Approximately half of the plants are owned by investor owned utilities, ~25% for IPPs (primarily Texas), and 25% for municipally-affiliated entities. Broadly, the Good Neighbor Plan increases the rule’s scope and reduces compliance flexibility, and we continue to see the potential impact on grid reliability and wholesale power prices as underappreciated by investors. The proposed rules would phase-in for coal plants in 2023-24, the most significant impact would be in 2027, by which point coal plants would be required to install SCR/SNCR controls. We principally see this as a risk to many non-equipped coal plants in Texas, as well as some equipped plants in PJM which may not operate their SCR controls to the full extent.
Companies: Who is most impacted? And at what cost? Sierra Club estimates that 235 coal units are impacted by the new rules. Among publicly traded companies, we highlight Ameren (AEE), which has 3.5 GW of CSAPR-exposed coal plants, ~2.4GW of which do not have near-term retirement dates. Other impacted IOUs with 1-2 GW of exposure include OGE, FE, XEL, and D. ETR in its recent Texas rate case detailed its intention to accelerate coal retirements which was influenced by the latest proposed rules (details in our 2Q ETR preview here).
Thank you. Linky?
There is no public link — you need to be a brokerage client.
> the EPA’s Good Neighbor Plan <
You’ve got to give the Left (and the Deep State) credit for one thing. They sure are good at giving terrible things pleasant names.
Here’s another link: (they are going after more than coal plants)
EPA Proposes “Good Neighbor” Plan to Cut Smog Across Much of the United States
https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-proposes-good-neighbor-plan-cut-smog-across-much-united-states
“Following the science and the law, this ‘good neighbor’ plan will better protect the health of Americans across the country,” said EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan. “Air pollution doesn’t stop at the state line. This step will help our state partners meet air quality health standards, saving lives and improving public health in smog-affected communities across the United States.”
EPA evaluated air quality modeling, annual emissions, and information about potential controls to determine which industries beyond the power sector could have the greatest impact in providing ozone air quality improvements in affected downwind states. As a result, EPA is proposing emissions standards for new and existing emissions units in these selected industries:
-reciprocating internal combustion engines in Pipeline Transportation of Natural Gas;
-kilns in Cement and Cement Product Manufacturing;
-boilers and furnaces in Iron and Steel Mills and Ferroalloy Manufacturing;
-furnaces in Glass and Glass Product Manufacturing; and
-high-emitting, large boilers in Basic Chemical Manufacturing, Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing, and Pulp, Paper, and Paperboard Mills.
Lots of EPA info about this here: https://www.epa.gov/csapr/good-neighbor-plan-2015-ozone-naaqs
Notice how the word “LAW” is not used. Only the word “PLAN”. Big difference.
Correct but they think they don’t need no stinkin laws. See laws require hearing from both sides of an issue. Plans are like one sided presentation linoleum the Jan 6 “hearing”.
Just think of the money it will take to oppose these “plans” in court. You’d think they hadn’t heard the SCOTUS ruling.
I thought a SCOTUS ruling put this to bed.
Unfortunately, the Congress granted the fourth branch of government effective law-making capability.
Like Andrew Jackson, they’re ignoring the SCOTUS. It can make all the rulings it wants. The government will ignore it.
If they bring rolling blackouts to my state under such pretenses, there will be many who will put their skills to good use. ‘Flames’ is just a hint of what will come.
They are ignoring that or considering the ruling specific only to that one case with all others open for additional rulings. In other words they are saying, “Stop us if you can.”
In other words they are saying, “Stop us if you can.”
Damned Zombies!
Congress passed the Clean Air Act it is USC codified law, with that the EPA has the charter and the authority to clean the air. The standards are set by best available technology for any given period of action items. Even with SCR on coal stacks they are still an order of magnitude dirtier than natural gas and infinitely dirtier than nuclear power with regards to air emissions for SCR those are NOx or the various all toxic nitrous oxides. Every one of them is toxic in some way with ppm levels being the ambient limits for humans to breathe. Coal if they cannot clean up to at least natural gas levels of emissions deserves to be shut down and left in the dust bin of history. This doesn’t even touch the heavy metals in the stacks, three of them being neurotoxins,(lead,mercury,vanadium) that coal plants even with particulate filters emit in large amounts. Plus a slew of other volatile organic particulates in the 2.5 micron or less size range the kind that get deep into human lungs and cause all kind of problems. Not just cancers, PM2.5 are small enough to cross the lungs to blood barrier and form the nucleus of blood clots as the body sees the foreign matter as hostile and attacks it with white blood cells and platelets. Pm2.5 is one of the leading causes of myocardial infarctions and strokes. Coal will never be clean , it can be cleaner but it will always pollute. The sooner humans move past it the better. Turning it into gas via a sealed gassifier is one way as the output is analytically scrubbed fuel gas into gas turbines who’s exhaust also go through SCR cats to get rid of NOx has no PM.5 matter in it as it was scrubbed to the submicron level before combustion in that turbine. Another way is to use a solid carbon fuel cell and feed it crushed micronized coal particles again since there is no direct combustion the only outputs are water,CO2 and spent carbonate salts that when reprocessed strips the ash out as a solid form not up in the air stacks as submicron sized particles.
IOW, you will make nothing and be happy.
Thanks for the info.
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