Posted on 07/22/2022 8:03:38 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Lets hope UA gets 300KM missiles!
Dirty RuZZian.
Goes to show how much you actually keep up with the news and current events huh?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4CNOn5HiHm4
“Saudi Arabia and Iraq are diverting more and more of their crude oil toward Europe, helping the continent’s oil refineries to overcome a pivot away from Russia. “
“More than 1 million barrels a day of crude has made its way to Europe from the Middle East in the first three weeks of July via a pipeline that crosses Egypt, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Volumes have roughly doubled from a year ago.”
Some big changes in the artillery war. Sounds significant.
“Recent shipments of U.S. and allied weapons, particularly the Himars multiple-launch rocket systems and 155mm howitzers, have helped to blunt Russia’s offensive in the Donbas and stabilize the situation there, Mr. Zelensky said. The Russians used to fire 12,000 artillery shells daily against 1,000 to 2,000 by Ukraine, he said. Now, he added, Ukraine can fire some 6,000 shells a day while Russia is beginning to feel a shortage of ammunition and troops.
This change in the balance of firepower has stemmed Ukrainian casualties, Mr. Zelensky said. At the peak of fighting in May and June, he said, Ukraine was losing between 100 and 200 troops a day; now, it is down to some 30 fatalities a day and around 250 wounded.”
“we mentioned this before how it being how it’s been used before by Ukrainian side is they basically do do kind of like a decoy attack using rockets... overloading anti-air defenses, and once the batteries’ rockets are exhausted, you shoot with the HIMARS system.”
Another aspect of that, is that by firing the decoys (or just enough actuals), you force the Russia Air Defenses to fire, thereby revealing their positions, so that you can fire on the Air Defenses themselves.
Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) is characteristically one of the opening combat actions of an Operational Plan.
Those high value, high altitude air defense systems are few in number, and very long lead time to produce. Once those in the region are destroyed (or stop responding, out of fear), then it will be open season on Russian targets, with the longer range of the Artillery now in Ukrainian hands.
“Lets hope UA gets 300KM missiles!”
I think that is what Russia seeks to deter with their recent statements, that their territorial goals are being expanded, to provide buffer against the longer reach of Western weapons.
They seek to deter the provision of those weapons, because they assess serious risks to themselves.
Not providing the weapons would of course, in no way limit Russian territorial aspirations (such weakness would rather encourage them).
But them taking the time and prioritizing their messaging on seeking to deter this, highlights the value that those long range rockets would provide.
Flak is heaviest when you are over the target.
They likely have multiple positions to quickly move to - however, many of them, if not most, are located inside Russia.
“The Russians used to fire 12,000 artillery shells daily against 1,000 to 2,000 by Ukraine, he said. Now, he added, Ukraine can fire some 6,000 shells a day while Russia is beginning to feel a shortage of ammunition and troops.”
Those rates of fire seem more realistic to me than some other estimates that I have seen discussed (Like Russian forces firing 50,000 rounds per day).
In addition to Russian forces starting to feel a shortage of ammunition and troops, they have also been wearing their guns out. The barrels on their howitzers are only good for a couple of thousand rounds.
That phase of the war, where Russia had an overwhelming Artillery advantage, seems to have passed.
In addition to the numbers of rounds fired approaching closer to parity, the greater accuracy of Western systems magnifies the Ukrainian effects.
I’m paying attention to the artillery analysis as an indicator to what the truth is in the direction of the war, since it is so difficult to know what the truth is from the general news and the intense and conflicting claims on the war.
There is heavy and growing weight to the claims of the worn out and less effective Russian artillery and the shortage of shells, in contrast to the growing artillery/missile strength of the Ukrainians, that is a positive sign.
Where the artillery situation will lead and if Ukraine has the ground forces to capitalize on it, we will see, but it is still good news.
“RA under Nixon”
Meaning please?
That be true of Ukraine, not Russia.
The conscripts Ukraine is roping in like cattle off the streets don't even want to go to war.
RA meant Regular Army on our dog tags, instead of draftee.
“”RA (Regular Army, volunteer enlisted), US (an enlisted draftee), NG (National Guard), ER (Enlisted Reserve)””
I certainly don't believe that number, either. The CIA is a propaganda tool in this war and has every incentive to exaggerate the actual number of Russian deaths.
The BBC could only confirm 4000 Russian deaths.
Meanwhile, Ukraine, by its own admission, is losing a 1000 troops a day.
LOL. Neither do the Russian cattle!! And legally they do not have to fight outside of their country.
Dirty RuZZian.
I was a TD under Nixon. TD = Toddler.
Thank you for your service.
Best,
Speedy.
“National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan reiterates that POTUS has said the US will not provide Ukraine with long range missile systems that can strike as far as 300km away.”
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1550561577853665280
“I’m paying attention to the artillery analysis as an indicator to what the truth is in the direction of the war”
In the last (most recent) phase of the war, the Russian Artillery advantage (and their ruthless war crime tactic of levelling the civilian infrastructure to advance) was probably the dominant factor.
Just as with the previously dominant Russian advantages in missiles, air power and armored vehicles, their Artillery advantage seems to be being negated through attrition and Western technology.
They are running out of big cards to play, and have been making less and less headway each month since the first. Russian advances have come to virtual halt in recent weeks.
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