“The Russians used to fire 12,000 artillery shells daily against 1,000 to 2,000 by Ukraine, he said. Now, he added, Ukraine can fire some 6,000 shells a day while Russia is beginning to feel a shortage of ammunition and troops.”
Those rates of fire seem more realistic to me than some other estimates that I have seen discussed (Like Russian forces firing 50,000 rounds per day).
In addition to Russian forces starting to feel a shortage of ammunition and troops, they have also been wearing their guns out. The barrels on their howitzers are only good for a couple of thousand rounds.
That phase of the war, where Russia had an overwhelming Artillery advantage, seems to have passed.
In addition to the numbers of rounds fired approaching closer to parity, the greater accuracy of Western systems magnifies the Ukrainian effects.
I’m paying attention to the artillery analysis as an indicator to what the truth is in the direction of the war, since it is so difficult to know what the truth is from the general news and the intense and conflicting claims on the war.
There is heavy and growing weight to the claims of the worn out and less effective Russian artillery and the shortage of shells, in contrast to the growing artillery/missile strength of the Ukrainians, that is a positive sign.
Where the artillery situation will lead and if Ukraine has the ground forces to capitalize on it, we will see, but it is still good news.