I guess he is lucky he didn’t end up dead in a swimming pool from a ‘suicide’.
“RBK and Kommersant are reporting that Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov will be replaced in the near future. Among other things, Borisov oversees Russia’s defense industry and has come under criticism for military equipment issues, including with UAVs.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1547103956601561089
Anyone care to speculate just who is manning those sophisticated weapon systems the US is sending to Ukraine? Imagine “some assembly required”, long training, expertise and experience also necessary to use them properly.
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, July 12, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••denotes transcribed dialogue.
———————————————————————————————————————
Extras:
Russia Getting Iranian Attack Drones Would Be A Very Big Deal
Russia getting hundreds of drones from Iran could help backfill for depleted missile stocks and wreak havoc in the western part of Ukraine.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-getting-iranian-attack-drones-would-be-a-very-big-deal
Ukraine Situation Report: More Russian Ammo Dumps Blown Up
Ukraine’s effort to deplete Russia’s stock of artillery shells and other explosives where it is stored shows no signs of slowing.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-more-russian-ammo-dumps-blown-up
———————————————————————————————————————
••Spartz Scandal:
She filled open letter asking for Yermak resignation, but he was supported by US National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan. Spartz attacked Sullivan saying, “I hope Jake Sullivan handles Kyiv better than Kabul”. (Boom!) Her comments and approach is gathering popular support in Ukraine. WiU says some basis to what she is claiming. Resonates with Ukraine in armed forces. (Edit: Backstory in previous issues of “Attack on Europe” thread.)
••Russian Vision For War Future:
Russia will continue to fight capture the rest of Donetsk region (2nd Phase), then they hope for some sort of negotiations, but they will fail. What Russians want is all captured territory to be ceded to them. The rest of Ukraine can go on existing the way it is. Russian know that Ukraine will not accept those terms so will begin the 3rd Phase.
This Phase will be to capture as much of the Ukraine as possible, right up to the Polish border. After that there will be a 40 year long Iron Curtain.
Russians expect the front to be quiet for the rest of July. The next major Russian will begin sometime in August. They also expect the UA will begin their major offensive then also. Will not be a meeting engagement because the Russian offensive will likely be focused around Donetsk region. The UA major offensive is assumed to be in Kherson or Zaporizhiza regions.
Internal the Russians are preparing their population while some high ranking government are telling the people that the life they had over the past 20 years will not return in any foreseeable future. Russia is preparing fore a long term war of attrition.
WiU says Ukraine is not fighting the war from the long term perspective. So it is now super inefficient and wasting resources they will need later, specifically human resources it does not have and should be valued the most, but the high command does not value them the most: equipment is more valuable than people which, if that does not change, will lead to defeat eventually.
••Amount of Ammo Being Spent In The War:
US ammo production is being expanded every two weeks of this war. US has large stockpiles of ammo, but stockpiles in European countries are pretty much exhausted. UK stockpile is only large enough for 8 days at current expenditures in Ukraine.
Russian ammo stockpile rumors (based on WiU’s information they are a limitless pit). But, Russian sources are starting to say that, at current rates of expenditure, they have enough ammo until at least the end of the year, maybe until January-February 2023. HIMARS strikes on ammo dumps help bring the Orc ammo supply down sooner.
The really large ammo dump in the regional capital, Luhansk’ was just hit, as well as some dumps in the Donetsk region. These strikes are hurting the Orcs, but the critical need is to replenish human resources. To continue, they need to significantly boost the number of boots on the ground. Loss of all of those dumps deprives them of any ability to wage a major offensive.
Anecdotal reports from Russia that men called to their local conscription center are being urged by the recruiting officers to sigh conscript contracts. A sort of stealth mobilization. At the same time, officials are declaring is there is no mobilization ... FOR NOW.
Russian equivalent of HIMARS, Soviet-made 220mm BM-27 ‘Uragan’ and 220mm BM-30 ‘Smerch’ do not have precision ammo. Effective range, without specialised ammo, is 22 miles. Ukraine has these systems also. These system were designed of saturation fire, not precision.
••Russian Economy:
TV ads run from 3 hours fifteen minutes to 3 and one half hours by government decree. This has now dropped to 2 hours 16 minutes. A third of their TV ad market is dead and gone.
••Russian Banking System:
The banks joining the Chinese money wiring system: “Cross Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS)”. This maybe a crutch or proxy for R banks t get two the Swift Payment System. Russian banks are now electronically connected to Chinese banks through CIPS, and use Chinese banks to make payments to the Swift System for all the international payments they need to make. So Russia now found way to use Chinese banks to avoid the US banking sanctions.
••Ukraine Received >10 more SPH Krabs from Poland. This makes the ZSU 155mm LR artillery stronger than the Russian artillery in the same category. Fewer UA units but clear advantage beginning to develop for UA. 18 PzH-2000s, >28 Krabs, 17 Caesars. That’s >63 LR SPGs, plus the HIMARS from the US and UK.
This is beginning to look like a formidable force that can be used effectively to destroy Russian artillery in a small section of the front where Russian artillery is concentrating. Now, the ZSU has the tools to break the Russian artillery; whether they use them properly to do this is another question.
••Kazakhstan
Russia definitely has a Cold War with Kazakhstan - now blocking sugar to Kazakhstan so candy factories shut down. Leaders met and agreed to agree and let’s talk again.
••Belarus:
Russian ally. Major who was responsible for Belarus mobilization effort was fired; indicates Belarus army just does not want to fight. Continuing R pressure to use B army in war
••Russia Firings:
Head of military industrial complex was fired and the head of the Russian Military Space program is also about to be fired. There is a growing realization by top political leaders and military command that Russian military industrial complex is not delivering heavy weapons that are on par with Western ones being received by Ukraine.
••Russian Perspective on Economic Life in Occupied Territories:
Kherson-Zaporizhiza regions. Ugly, no economic life, no money being earned, no jobs, no salaries, no pensions being paid, no social welfare payments. People are on their own to survive, many areas have no electricity, gad and diesel scarce, according to Russian sources.
••Ukrainian Grain:
Began to directly export its grain from two small ports on the Danube River. 8 bulk grain ships left port. So it looks like the bottleneck is slowly opening. May or may not be long term solution. This could allow the Ukraine to get some money to support it.
••Ukrainian Economy:
Negotiation have begun with its lenders to stop paying, specifically a NG company which has been a total cancer on the economic life and creator of a huge, huge amount of corruption at the highest level of Ukrainian government.
This NG company was borrowing from western markets in US dollars. Now it is trying to negotiate a delay or grace period on its coupon payments for its bonds for two years. WiU sees this as a restructuring and default by different means. This default based on what is happening in the rest of the economy, will happen sooner than later, probably September or October.
With 50% of the GDP wiped out, there is simply no way to continue the heavy debt payments in any particular.
———————————————————————————————————————
Summary:
No changes. Russian troops are being resupplied with fresh reserves and regrouped.
Continued severe pain on the Russian side from rocket strikes by HIMARS MLRS.
No strategic answer from the Russian side yet.
Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead: no changes.
- Popasna/Lysychansk area: No changes.
- Svitlodarsk area: no changes.
- Donetsk West: no changes
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.
1. Kharkiv: No changes.
••Active artillery exchanges continues.
2. Izyum bridgehead. No changes.
••More and wide-spread small probing attacks
3. Popasna/Lysychansk area: No changes.
4. Svtilodarsk area: No changes.
5. West of Donetsk: Avdiyivka and Maryinka. No changes.
6. Vugledar: No changes.
7. Velyka Novosilka - Gulyapole stretch of frontline. No changes.
8. Kherson bridgehead: No changes.