I disagree. I think the bigger culprit is that anyone who was even thinking of moving or buying a first home in the next five years has already done so.
At the end of 2019 I had no interest in moving. Within six months I had made up my mind that I was not only going to move, but I was going to move into a much bigger home that was going to become the new "headquarters" of my business. It took two years to get everything lined up, but I found the perfect place and made it happen.
Correct.
And yes, the only way to bring down inflation is to soak up 20 years of QE.
It’s going to suck. Stock market and housing market are going to have to come down quite a lot. Ultimately, so will wages which are also inflated ($15 is not enough to get kids to work at a fast food joint, that is nuts).
Volcker. Guy had balls.
As long as the fed rate is moving up, and keeps moving up, and the market believes it will keep moving up, then the Fed may not have to do what Volcker ultimately did.
You run a confidence scheme like this long enough, the only thing that will work is convincing those behind the con that the new con artist is serious and can do what they say they are going to do, whether the new con artist actually intends to do it or not.
And as long as gasoline and diesel keep going up, so will inflation. Period. It’s the only reliable indicator that matters.
We’ll be out of the recession (been in one since 2020) when men return to strip clubs. Best ungameable leading indicator of recession. You can game copper prices, but you can’t prop up t!tty-bar futures.
Congratulations - great decision.