Posted on 04/22/2022 9:46:31 AM PDT by blam
At the end of March, we warned that the “Yen was At Risk Of “Explosive” Downward Spiral With Kuroda Trapped“…
Yen At Risk Of “Explosive” Downward Spiral With Kuroda Trapped… And Why China May Soon Devalue https://t.co/8UbeP36cJL
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) March 30, 2022
…. and that, more or less, is what happened with the Japanese currency subsequently suffering the longest stretch of daily losses in history with 13 consecutive days of losses.
And absent the occasional short squeeze, it is unlikely that this relentless trend lower in the yen trajectory will change any time soon as it comes at the expense of the BOJ’s being able to maintain its Yield Curve Control which limits the 10Y JGB at 0.25%, but to do so, it forces the BOJ to keep easing, injection trillions in yen, and effectively continuously devaluing the currency (until none other than China is forced to devalue as we also explained last month, and will discuss again later today).
So with the BOJ trapped and unable to do much to reverse the implosion in the yen (which unlike much of the past decade is actually dangerous for Japan because as we also explained this week, assures much higher inflation for the country which has the highest debt load in the developed world), what does Japan do? Why come running to the Fed in hopes of some “coordinated intervention” of course.
On Friday, Japanese television broadcaster TBS reported that Japan and the United States likely discussed the idea of coordinated currency intervention to stem further yen falls during a bilateral finance leaders’ meeting. According to Reuters, the report, citing a Japanese government source, came after Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki described recent yen falls as “sharp” and said he agreed with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to communicate closely on currency moves.
“We confirmed that currency authorities of both countries will communicate closely, aligning with the exchange-rate principles agreed among the G7 and G20 members,” Suzuki told reporters after the meeting with Yellen in Washington D.C. on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund gatherings.
Suzuki said he explained to Yellen that recent yen falls were sharp, but declined to comment on whether the two discussed the idea of coordinated currency intervention. However, in a report from Washington, TBS said Suzuki and Yellen did discuss joint currency intervention during their talks.
“The U.S. side sounded as if it would consider the idea positively,” TBS quoted the government source as saying.
That said, it is unlikely that a new Plaza Accord is imminent as Washington will find it very hard to consent to yen-buying intervention as it would drive down the dollar and accelerate already soaring U.S. inflation, TBS reported. When approached by Reuters on the report, a Japanese finance ministry official said he could not comment on whether joint currency intervention was discussed at the meeting.
It’s probably hard to get U.S. consent for coordinated intervention at this timing,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, chief market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management. “If intervention does take place, that could trigger a huge unwinding of positions and push up the Japanese currency by 2-3 yen in a short period of time.”
The yen has plunged to two-decade lows against the dollar, with the central bank continuing to defend its ultra-low rate policy in contrast with heightening chances of aggressive rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve. read more
The currency’s fall halted this week at lows of 129.43 to the dollar on expectations the issue of joint intervention could be raised at the G7 and the U.S.-Japan finance leaders’ meetings. In a G7 statement issued on Thursday Tokyo time, the finance heads said they were closely monitoring markets that have been “volatile,” but made no mention of exchange rates.
“The government has said rapid currency moves were undesirable. What we’re seeing now with the yen are rapid moves, so we’ll monitor moves closely with a sense of urgency,” Suzuki told reporters.
Investors believe the yen has even further to fall, with most betting that even a government intervention wouldn’t be enough to turn around the momentum.
“It wouldn’t surprise me if they did talk about joint intervention,” though Suzuki likely failed to win consent from Yellen, said Daisaku Ueno, chief foreign exchange strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. “That’s why Suzuki had little to say about what Yellen told him. Given the U.S. battles with rapid inflation through monetary tightening, it’s unthinkable Washington will agree to Japan’s call for intervention.”
The Yen jumped modestly on the news, briefly reversing the day’s losses with the USDJPY dipping briefly below 128, only to resume it relentless collapse …
… which as we will discuss shortly, is “the biggest story no-one is talking about” according to Albert Edwards.
BTW, they have a plunging population and no immigration. Most are old.
Japan has its problems just as the US, China, Europe, and other large nations do but they remain a very wealthy nation.
How could their currency drop against the dollar when we are printing money like there is no tomorrow????
“Blue horshoe loves Endicott Steel”
Japan has no inflation. The USA has out of control inflation.
That means we need to raise interest rates, which will strengthen the dollar vs the yen.
If the fed wants to tackle inflation there are no alternatives to this scenario.
“I remember in the mid-80’s when most thought the Japanese would own the world.”
Japan was ginning up fiat currency and leveraging it to buy up all sorts of things. And then the whole house of cards fell flat.
Sort of like what the dollar is doing right now.
Israel Dumps The Dollar For China’s Renminbi
https://quoththeraven.substack.com/p/king-dollars-demise-israel-dumps?s=r
Hmm...
As the article indicated, it’s due to interest rates in Japan staying ultra low while our Fed will have to repeatedly jack ours up to try to fight off the Bidenflation we are seeing. Higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investment ( if the U.S. has to start paying 5% on its 10-year bonds then you can expect a bunch of buyers from Japan who would only get 0.25% on a Japanese 10 year bond). That influx of cash from Japan would make the dollar stronger relative to the yen. BUT that is only true in the long run if US inflation gets tampered down. If inflation continues to run wild it will erode the value of the dollar vs. other currencies with less inflation.
Our “friends”. How much do we pay them each year?
Valid point.
My lament was at our idiotic policies and I take little comfort that other nations appear just as stupid as we are.
The article I linked says they now have over $200 billion in foreign reserves in a mix of currencies. If they have that kind of money at their disposal, it begs the question why are we still dispensing $3-$5 billion a year to them when we already have a $30 trillion deficit?
Demographics is destiny.
I remember some car movie with Japanese guys and Michael Keaton…
No, your point is the valid one. The dollar will not remain strong in the long term if we keep printing money that essentially we cannot back. Our only solution is to dilute the value of the currency so that we can back it.
Things like relative interest rates effect the FX rate in the short term but things like actual strength in a nation’s economy vs. other countries are what determines the long term value of one currency vs. another.
Japan needs to get past its virus-paranoia and re-open to tourists, as that will bring in big amounts of money and the country is very cheap right now for visitors.
Why don’t they just print more yen?
Raise rates? This isn’t 1981 when we were the largest creditor nation in earth. Now we are the largest debtor nation I’m human history. Rates go up and we implode. Rates don’t go up and inflation kills us. We are painted into a corner, and their answer is a great reset and a new digital currency.
” Rates go up and we implode. Rates don’t go up and inflation kills us.”
It’s only a problem if rates are higher than inflation. Right now the gov’t pays 0.5% interest on a currency that is shrinking in value by 6%.
Long term that has always been the plan to get us out of debt.
Despite the plunging population, they can’t feed themselves with only 11 to 12 % of Japan being arable land.
So true. They're trapped.
Precious metals are probably a good defense.
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