Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Russian Casualties in Ukraine: Reaching the Tipping Point
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) ^ | March 31, 2022 | Mark F. Cancian Senior Adviser, International Security Program

Posted on 04/07/2022 5:48:06 AM PDT by Red Badger

click here to read article


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-44 next last
To: NorseViking

Good morning! Welcome back to work! Had your coffee already, mentally sharp? On to your keyboard!


21 posted on 04/07/2022 7:15:02 AM PDT by exinnj
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Vermont Lt
Its estimates, based on experience. And certainly the US has experience in war over the past couple of decades.

And the same people you trust have been LYING about war over that same time frame...have you read the Afghanistan Papers

22 posted on 04/07/2022 7:18:56 AM PDT by mac_truck (aide toi et dieu t'aidera )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: mac_truck

OK...

Everything coming out of America is a lie.

It is impossible to have a serious discussion with someone you cannot take seriously.

Go back to your Q thread.


23 posted on 04/07/2022 7:29:05 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: Vermont Lt

Did you read the Afghanistan Papers...yes or no?


24 posted on 04/07/2022 7:34:16 AM PDT by mac_truck (aide toi et dieu t'aidera )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

Boy that’s a lot of sad & mad Moms, daughters and wives!

Enough for the ruskies to say enough?

We’ll see...


25 posted on 04/07/2022 7:38:06 AM PDT by Harpotoo (Being a socialist is a lot easier than having to WORK like the rest of US:-))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mac_truck

What are you my mother?

You spout idiocy. Go back to your Q Anon theories.

I cannot believe the amount of hatred towards the US on these forums these days. Jim Rob is going to be scratching his head wondering why donations are going to dry up. I guess he should take payments in Rubles.


26 posted on 04/07/2022 7:40:22 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: mac_truck

Plus they hadn’t a clue that the Pakis and Indians were developing Nukes.

They also thought Trump was (NOT) a ruskie asset!

They also claimed ruskie misinformation on the now infamous Hunter laptop.

US intelligence is worthless and CORRUPT to the hilt!


27 posted on 04/07/2022 7:40:32 AM PDT by Harpotoo (Being a socialist is a lot easier than having to WORK like the rest of US:-))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: DIRTYSECRET

There must be a way to ID the dead and let their mothers in Russia know.


Went the kids don’t return home, their mothers ID them.


28 posted on 04/07/2022 7:49:04 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: AndyJackson

By using the same outdated armor vulnerable to shoulder fired and drone fired anti-tank weapons.


No!

By using artillery* and infantry.

Snipers and booby traps are are real morale killer.

The goal is not to win a head to head battle but to keep them stressed out and moving them in the direction you want them to go.


29 posted on 04/07/2022 7:50:55 AM PDT by CIB-173RDABN (I am not an expert in anything, and my opinion is just that, an opinion. I may be wrong.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: exinnj

Had your coffee already


He’s Russian and drinks tea.


30 posted on 04/07/2022 7:53:29 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: Vermont Lt; All
Good luck washing off all that dumb.

The Afghanistan Papers are a set of interviews relating to the US war in Afghanistan prepared by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) and published by The Washington Post in 2019 following a Freedom of Information Act request.[1][2][3] The documents reveal that high-ranking officials generally held the opinion that the war was unwinnable while keeping this view hidden from the public.[1][4][5][6] Due to the difficulty of creating objective metrics to demonstrate success, information was manipulated for the duration of the conflict.

31 posted on 04/07/2022 8:16:59 AM PDT by mac_truck (aide toi et dieu t'aidera )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: CIB-173RDABN
No! By using artillery* and infantry

Well that is funny right there because all the arm-chair generals here are prognosticating how Ukraine needs a lot of armor to press their counter-attack.

32 posted on 04/07/2022 8:24:03 AM PDT by AndyJackson
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 29 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger
The general point is correct, although comparisons involving the Cold War US military and the current Russian army strike me as incorrect, as I seriously doubt our own armed forces can conduct warfare on the operational level anymore, simply because our military is too small for officers to gain the experience needed for multi-division scale operations.

My guess is that many Russian battalions used in the initial invasion have reached the 40% casualty rate at which units begin to find ways to avoid offensive operations. I read yesterday that the Russians are taking some depleted units and recombining them with others, which won't help. There's also speculation that the attack on a Russian fuel depot a few days ago was actually carried out by Russian officers to conceal theft of fuel.

If the Russians simply throw new units together using even more raw recruits and worse equipment I do not expect their performance to improve, although if they throw enough mass together they may advance to try to cut off Ukrainian salients in the east. Even then, I strongly suspect they will advance only to have supply lines cut and be slowly ground down by Ukrainians as they have been.

33 posted on 04/07/2022 8:31:54 AM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mac_truck
The Afghanistan war was unwinnable as soon as Bush decided to increase the scope of the conflict to "nation building" instead of just keeping al Qaeda and the Taliban out. Doing so simply recreated the conditions that led to the first Afghan Islamist insurgency against the Communist Afghan government, even before the Soviet invasion.

There's nothing new about any of this: it's the same story since 1945-- US political leaders set goals far and above what can realistically be expected to be achieved given the military resources and ROE used, resulting in failure every time, with the exception of the Gulf war, where we fought for a limited goal with almost unlimited force and kept the treasonous press muzzled.

34 posted on 04/07/2022 8:38:24 AM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: lodi90

I think he was surprised that Ukrainian security would not back Yanukovych when Yanukovych ordered them to use force against the Maidan protesters a la Tiananmen. That made Yanukovych unable to find a safe haven from which to call in “fraternal assistance” from Russia.


35 posted on 04/07/2022 8:43:08 AM PDT by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens" )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger
And, the source of this information is? The Biden regime, which lies about everything, and the Ukraine, one of the most corrupt nations in Europe, run by a dictator that has imprisoned opposition leaders, banned media outlets that oppose him and banned or suspended all other political parties.

This propaganda designed to keep the war goal. The goal is to turn what's left of Ukraine into Palestine and use it as a vehicle for perpetual insurgency against Russia. The loss or quality of the life the people there doesn't matter.

This war wouldn't be occurring if we hadn't fomented a revolution that caused an eight-year civil war in Ukraine and then encouraged the Ukrainians to reject the Minsk Agreement would have ended the war in Donbass.

36 posted on 04/07/2022 9:08:26 AM PDT by Kazan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: 9YearLurker

Thanks. That’s very interesting.

L


37 posted on 04/07/2022 9:14:03 AM PDT by Lurker (Peaceful coexistence with the Left is not possible. Stop pretending that it is.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger; AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Arthur Wildfire! March; Berosus; Bockscar; BraveMan; ..
To put that into perspective, Russia reported 14,400 killed through 10 years of war in Afghanistan.
To put that into perspective, Putin probably regards the Afghanistan war as "the good old days". Even if he didn't before, he probably does now.

38 posted on 04/07/2022 9:28:05 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (Imagine an imaginary menagerie manager imagining managing an imaginary menagerie.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: mac_truck

And what has that got to do with anything?

Anyone with two brain cells could see that.

What has that got to do with casualty estimate calculations?

You hate America so much, it consumes you.


39 posted on 04/07/2022 9:30:10 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: Red Badger

The number of wounded is more like four times the number killed, not two times; plus you need soldiers to get the wounded to the rear for treatment.


40 posted on 04/07/2022 9:30:54 AM PDT by WASCWatch ( WASC)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-44 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson