This is a catch-22 for Russia.
They can take this stand, but for how long? They cannot go a month without the income from selling gas and it’s the same for wheat, fertilizer, etc.
Russia will collapse without this daily inflow of money, whatever form it takes.
Germany and the rest of the EU should call their bluff.
Who would give in first? EU from lack of gas, grain and fertiilzer? Or Russia for lack of income?
Only God knows.........
It's a good question to ask. The sort of question that should have been asked before Sanctions were applied.
I read some claim on Zerohedge that - at the current prices of Oil and NG - Russia's income is higher than it was before February. Not all of Russia's customers pay in Euro or USD you see, and the German contracts were at a steep discount to today's prices. I need to confirm this of course.
Hmm, now that force majeure has been applied, I wonder if the ruble price of these long term contracts is being offered to Germany, or if the old contracts will just be torn up. The most sensible course would be for Russia to honor the contracts as far as possible.
There are plenty of countries happy to buy Russia’s oil.
Germany is becoming a crash test dummy.
You really don’t want to be a crash test dummy.