Posted on 03/30/2022 2:57:02 AM PDT by Jyotishi
Xi is unsure what sanctions China might face if it invades Taiwan
Almost a month in, China is still being extremely coy about its attitude towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The regime is acutely aware that there are many parallels between the Russian-Ukrainian relationship and the Chinese-Taiwanese one, and that the Russian attempt to conquer Ukraine is failing, or at least stalled. It’s only recently that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin began denying that Ukraine is a real nation, but that has been Beijing’s position with regard to Taiwan from the start. For 73 years, ever since the Nationalist regime lost the Chinese civil war in 1949 and retreated to Taiwan, it has been the risk of a war with the United States that has deterred the victorious Chinese Communists from invading the island and finishing the job. But that threat may be a paper tiger, for there is no actual alliance between Taiwan and the United States. Like Ukraine, Taiwan gets many expressions of sympathy and support from Washington, and even fairly advanced weapons (although Taiwan has to pay for them), but it does not have a promise that the US Navy will stop a Chinese attack across the Strait of Taiwan, or indeed that the United States would use force in any way to defend Taiwan. While the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan was still underway last August, US President Joe Biden, seeking to reassure various friends and allies, said “We made a sacred commitment...that if anyone were to invade or take action against our NATO allies, we would respond. Same with Japan, same with South Korea, same with - Taiwan.” That cheered many people in Taiwan - but later in the same day a senior American official, speaking ‘not for attribution’, said that “US policy has not changed.” The United States didn’t even bother with ambiguity in the case of Ukraine, making it clear from the start that it would not offer any military resistance to a Russian conquest of Ukraine. This is perfectly sensible when your potential adversary has nuclear weapons - but China does too, so the lesson for Beijing is that the US won’t really fight for Taiwan either. That is certainly the conclusion that President Tsai Ing-wen’s government in Taipei will draw from recent events, so she will be shopping urgently for state-of-the-art weapons to defend Taiwan with. Given the current mood in the US Congress, she will probably be able to get them. Yet it’s unlikely that Xi Jinping’s advisers will be urging him to seize this moment to attack Taiwan, because what he sees in Russia is a brother autocrat, Vladimir Putin, who took a similar gamble and is facing a humiliating defeat. Putin’s miscalculation has been so monumental that he may even lose power over it. There are two elements in Putin’s catastrophe that Xi will suspect might also apply to any attempt by him to seize Taiwan by force. The first is just that his inexperienced armed forces, ordered to carry out an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, one of the most complex military operations in the book, may prove to be, like the Russians, simply not up to the task. The other thing Xi can’t be sure of is what kind of sanctions China might face if it invaded Taiwan. Nobody knows, including the players themselves, but China is hugely exposed to any interruption of international trade, and domestic circumstances are not propitious either. There would certainly be a surge of patriotic enthusiasm if Xi ordered the invasion of Taiwan this year, but he should wait a bit and watch what happens to another dictator who launched a stupid, unwinnable war and got his whole country cancelled.
(Gwynne Dyer’s new book is ‘The Shortest History of War’. The views expressed are personal.)
I would say paragraphs are your friends, but the original article was written that way.
Xi is unsure what sanctions China might face if it invades Taiwan
Almost a month in, China is still being extremely coy about its attitude towards the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The regime is acutely aware that there are many parallels between the Russian-Ukrainian relationship and the Chinese-Taiwanese one, and that the Russian attempt to conquer Ukraine is failing, or at least stalled.
It’s only recently that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin began denying that Ukraine is a real nation, but that has been Beijing’s position with regard to Taiwan from the start. For 73 years, ever since the Nationalist regime lost the Chinese civil war in 1949 and retreated to Taiwan, it has been the risk of a war with the United States that has deterred the victorious Chinese Communists from invading the island and finishing the job.
But that threat may be a paper tiger, for there is no actual alliance between Taiwan and the United States. Like Ukraine, Taiwan gets many expressions of sympathy and support from Washington, and even fairly advanced weapons (although Taiwan has to pay for them), but it does not have a promise that the US Navy will stop a Chinese attack across the Strait of Taiwan, or indeed that the United States would use force in any way to defend Taiwan.
While the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan was still underway last August, US President Joe Biden, seeking to reassure various friends and allies, said “We made a sacred commitment...that if anyone were to invade or take action against our NATO allies, we would respond. Same with Japan, same with South Korea, same with - Taiwan.”
That cheered many people in Taiwan - but later in the same day a senior American official, speaking ‘not for attribution’, said that “US policy has not changed.” The United States didn’t even bother with ambiguity in the case of Ukraine, making it clear from the start that it would not offer any military resistance to a Russian conquest of Ukraine.
This is perfectly sensible when your potential adversary has nuclear weapons - but China does too, so the lesson for Beijing is that the US won’t really fight for Taiwan either.
That is certainly the conclusion that President Tsai Ing-wen’s government in Taipei will draw from recent events, so she will be shopping urgently for state-of-the-art weapons to defend Taiwan with. Given the current mood in the US Congress, she will probably be able to get them.
Yet it’s unlikely that Xi Jinping’s advisers will be urging him to seize this moment to attack Taiwan, because what he sees in Russia is a brother autocrat, Vladimir Putin, who took a similar gamble and is facing a humiliating defeat. Putin’s miscalculation has been so monumental that he may even lose power over it.
There are two elements in Putin’s catastrophe that Xi will suspect might also apply to any attempt by him to seize Taiwan by force. The first is just that his inexperienced armed forces, ordered to carry out an amphibious invasion of Taiwan, one of the most complex military operations in the book, may prove to be, like the Russians, simply not up to the task. The other thing Xi can’t be sure of is what kind of sanctions China might face if it invaded Taiwan.
Nobody knows, including the players themselves, but China is hugely exposed to any interruption of international trade, and domestic circumstances are not propitious either. There would certainly be a surge of patriotic enthusiasm if Xi ordered the invasion of Taiwan this year, but he should wait a bit and watch what happens to another dictator who launched a stupid, unwinnable war and got his whole country cancelled.
(Gwynne Dyer’s new book is ‘The Shortest History of War’. The views expressed are personal.)
Thanks “paragrapher” FRiend.
My question to China is, “why”? Why attack Taiwan?
I have learned one lesson from Ukraine. Our regime will use that sanctions club to beat hell of Americans. No gas or food for America, no problem, but Putin will think before getting his hand slapped by the United States again. You apply that lesson learned to China, and you will see hundreds of thousands of Americans dying due to the embargo of Chinese pharmaceuticals. The only bright spot, I think all of our life saving Wuhan flu boosters are manufactured here.
I think there are a lot of cultural and geographic differences in the situations of Ukraine and Taiwan.
Ukraine includes Kiev, which Russians regard as sort of the founding city of Russia. It was Russian before there was a Moscow. Despite parts of Ukraine being ruled by various non-Russian empires, there has been considerable religious and linguistic continuity between Ukraine and Russia, except for the western oblasts of Ukraine.
Taiwan was ruled from mainland China only during the Qing dynasty from 1683 to 1895. Prior, it was populated first by aboriginal Taiwanese who are Austronesian speakers. Prior to the Qing, various migrations of non-Han ethnic groups from the mainland occurred, with considerable conflict between mainlanders and aboriginals. Dutch and Spanish traders also exerted influence over trading posts and parts of Taiwan. After rule by the Qing from the mainland for a little over 200 years, 125 years have passed under Japanese rule and de facto independence. Although the KMT from the mainland ruled after 1949, they were resented by the Taiwanese and by the pre-1895 immigrants.
Geographically, the situations are considerably different. Ukraine is a large country of about 300,000 square kilometers, while Taiwan is about 36,000. Ukraine has a population of about 41 million, while Taiwan has a population of 23.5 million. Ukraine has borders with several countries hostile to Russia via which it is supplied with weapons, etc. Taiwan is an island close to mainland China but not close to any other major country from which it can reasonably be resupplied.
China can extend its antiaircraft missile system to control Taiwanese airspace. It can easily sink any ship approaching Taiwanese ports. With 605 people per square kilometer, and most of its land being non-arable, Taiwan cannot feed itself. Furthermore, its high technology manufacturing base can be easily destroyed by short range missiles from the mainland.
On the other hand, so long as Taiwan is circumspect in its foreign policy, China has little reason to attack and many reasons to continue business as usual with Taiwan.
A take over of Taiwan by the ChiComs would hopefully end all economic ties to China and the rest of the third world. For God’s sake it’ time to bring all manufacturing home. It’s time to tell globalists to stuff it up their a$$e$.
“My question to China is, “why”? Why attack Taiwan?”
Taiwan is Silicon Valley east. 90% of our chips come from Taiwan.
China would love to own that capacity and know-how and to further increase our reliance on China for our manufacturing capacity. Trust me when I say you cannot build refrigerators without chips, much less heavy machinery and vehicles.
Wall Street has this nation up against the wall.
China must attack Taiwan because its existence shows weakness of the Chinese .gov.
If they are to be a world power they must act like one—and therefore cannot allow Taiwan to be a hostile neighbor.
The world is about power—Western folks are often too naive to understand this.
The two biggest differences between Taiwan and Ukraine that I can see are (1) There is a 100 mile ocean between Taiwan and China. Air and sea power are very limited in their ability to subjugate an enemy. (2) Russia doesn’t care if it reduces Ukraine to rubble. Taiwan has a lot of good stuff that THEY will reduce to rubble themselves if attacked.
My question to China is, “why”? Why attack Taiwan?
—
Look at a map. In a war China’s Navy would be bottled up in their ports. They have no clear access to the the Pacific Ocean without being at risk from land based aircraft.
It is not the United States that is protecting Taiwan, it is the other nations in the region.
Australia, the Philippine, South Korea, Japan, Viet Nam, Malaysia and India are all potential enemies of China.
Also, China has the same problem Russia has, corruption in their military. Everyone from top to bottom is skimming a little out of the military budget and reporting to the top that everything is just fine.
Last, Ukraine is showing just how difficult it is to invade another nation that is prepared and have the weapons to defend themselves. And unlike Russia, the Chinese would have to move troops and supplies crossed a well guarded body of water.
This would be a very very difficult Island to take because of the geography. Unless the nuke the entire island
They have China up against the wall or Taiwan?
This would be a very very difficult Island to take because of the geography. Unless the nuke the entire island
Geography also play in their defense. There is a mountain range that runs down the center of the island. I would suspect that there are massive caves dug out in those mountains stockpiled with supplies.
Taiwan would not be easy to take, even with nukes.
Here’s the bottom line. You have two countries Ukraine in Taiwan that have had freedom for a couple generations or more especially Taiwan. This means the young people have been free and then somebody comes in and tries to take away their freedom their music their movies their socializing their boyfriends and girlfriends?
The girls and women in these countries will not let the men stand down. They will fight tooth and nail the same as we would.
China tries to take on Taiwan and they are going to be bloodied really bad
“They have China up against the wall or Taiwan?”
Wall Street has the U.S. up against the wall with their insatiable appetite for profit-maximization culminating in our manufacturing and outsourcing everything overseas.
We make very little here, and our reliance on global supply chains, rare Earth minerals, medicines and on and on will spell our doom.
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