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A 60% Dud Rate for Precision-Guided Munitions Explains a Lot of Russia's Problems in Ukraine
Red State ^ | 03/24/2022 | Streiff

Posted on 03/24/2022 7:52:07 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

Thursday, US intelligence officials leaked a classified assessment about the performance of Russian precision-guided munitions in the Ukraine invasion.

The United States assesses that Russia is suffering failure rates as high as 60% for some of the precision-guided missiles it is using to attack Ukraine, three U.S. officials with knowledge of the intelligence told Reuters.

The disclosure could help explain why Russia has failed to achieve what most could consider basic objectives since its invasion a month ago, such as neutralizing Ukraine’s air force, despite the apparent strength of its military against Ukraine’s much smaller armed forces.

The U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information, did not provide evidence to support the assessment and did not disclose what precisely was driving high Russian missile failure rates.

One of the staples on social media accounts reporting from Ukraine has been the very high rate of cruise missiles that have failed to detonate.

Ukrainian Sappers Defuse Unexploded Warhead of Russian Cruise Missile (Video) | Defense Express


https://t.co/Xx09BebiK4 pic.twitter.com/Tu4a4JKRoc

— DEFENSE EXPRESS (@DEFENSEEXPRESS) March 18, 2022

#russian dud missle stuck in kitchen in one of #ukrainian homes


#Ukraine #Russia #war pic.twitter.com/jHQFnaAwMd

— Crimes Of War (@CrimesOfWarDoc) March 20, 2022

maybe they’re just drunk?


pic.twitter.com/tBjrbclIJJ

— NoMoreMrNiceBlyler (@e_blyler) March 25, 2022

Problems with fuzing are not unknown. The most famous example of this is the Mark 6 exploder used in the Mark 14 and Mark 15 torpedoes of the US Navy until September 1943. The flaws of the exploder and the torpedo produced a dud rate of over 50% in the standard submarine torpedo. The problem was caused by the Navy weapons designers wanting to avoid the cost of a field trial.

Precision-guided munitions are essential in modern warfare. However, in Ukraine, the proliferation of air defense systems, particularly MANPADS, has made flight below 10,000 feet very unhealthy. By the same token, dropping gravity bombs from above 10,000 feet, given the skill level of the Russian Air Force, which flew eight hours per month before the war, is not much better than using a trebuchet.

If this report is accurate, it speaks to massive manufacturing and possibly engineering design problems in the Russian arms industry.



TOPICS: Military/Veterans
KEYWORDS: dud; missiles; russia; ukraine
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1 posted on 03/24/2022 7:52:07 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Probably a lot of counterfeit parts are being used.


2 posted on 03/24/2022 7:53:21 PM PDT by Enterprise
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To: SeekAndFind

US Intelligence just happened to leak this? Why, of course, I believe every word written. 🤣


3 posted on 03/24/2022 7:55:47 PM PDT by Prince of Space ( Let’s go, Brandon! )
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To: SeekAndFind

Right close to Bidens disapproval rate.


4 posted on 03/24/2022 7:57:18 PM PDT by blackdog (Today's "disinformation" most often turns out to be tomorrow's facts. )
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To: SeekAndFind

Never mind, the accuracy of the hypersonic missiles they used to destroy the NATO training base near Lviv.


5 posted on 03/24/2022 7:58:40 PM PDT by Kazan
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To: SeekAndFind

That’s the good news.

The bad news is that win or lose, the Russian military is learning a LOT of practical lessons from this debacle. Lessons which should improve its performance in the next conflict.


6 posted on 03/24/2022 8:03:44 PM PDT by BenLurkin ((The above is not a statement of fact. It is either opinion, or satire. Or both.))
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To: SeekAndFind

But the guidance is good?


7 posted on 03/24/2022 8:05:46 PM PDT by gundog ( It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen. )
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To: SeekAndFind

“three U.S. officials with knowledge of the intelligence told Reuters”

Ok, so we don’t even know who’s saying this. May be true, may be false. No new information.


8 posted on 03/24/2022 8:07:29 PM PDT by packagingguy
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To: BenLurkin

If it’s a ground war in a neighboring area, maybe. And who’s gonna invade Russia? Seems like the lesson learned is “Stay home.”


9 posted on 03/24/2022 8:08:20 PM PDT by gundog ( It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen. )
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To: SeekAndFind

I wonder if their nuclear arsenal has been meticulously maintained?


10 posted on 03/24/2022 8:08:29 PM PDT by Cold Heart
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To: SeekAndFind

11 posted on 03/24/2022 8:09:44 PM PDT by gundog ( It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen. )
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To: packagingguy

Could be, Russian soldiers, not having their heart in the war aren’t bothering to arm them.


12 posted on 03/24/2022 8:10:05 PM PDT by Mogger
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To: BenLurkin

[The bad news is that win or lose, the Russian military is learning a LOT of practical lessons from this debacle. Lessons which should improve its performance in the next conflict.]


Lessons that are just a matter of technique are easy to correct. Those that relate to endemic corruption, not so easy. That’s especially the case when Putin’s $200b fortune makes Biden look like the most incorruptible man who ever lived, by comparison.


13 posted on 03/24/2022 8:11:15 PM PDT by Zhang Fei (My dad had a Delta 88. That was a car. It was like driving your living room.)
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To: BenLurkin

And so is the Chinese military.


14 posted on 03/24/2022 8:23:26 PM PDT by libh8er
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To: SeekAndFind

They look like something Wylie Coygotee should be taking out of a box marked, ACME.


15 posted on 03/24/2022 8:27:16 PM PDT by Sequoyah101 (Politicians are only marginally good at one thing, being politicians. Otherwise they are fools.)
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To: SeekAndFind

There are bombs and there are warnings.


16 posted on 03/24/2022 8:29:50 PM PDT by T.B. Yoits
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To: BenLurkin

Experience is always the best teacher in all things.


17 posted on 03/24/2022 8:31:29 PM PDT by ealgeone
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To: Cold Heart

“I wonder if their nuclear arsenal has been meticulously maintained?”

Their ICBM’s are the R-36 which entered service in 1988. They were working on the RS-28 Satan II and it lives up to its name. Massive warheads. Massive overkill. It’s a genocide weapon. It was supposed to be operational in 2019, development slipped, they’re supposed to have their first test flight this year and if successful re-equip 22 Strategic Rocket Regiments with it. Given the embargo on various items, they’re gonna have a hard time building those ICBM’s. Meanwhile, I’d say that ICBM’s sitting in Russia since 1988 haven’t been terribly well maintained, I’d guess.


18 posted on 03/24/2022 8:33:55 PM PDT by quikstrike98
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To: Enterprise

Or parts from China?


19 posted on 03/24/2022 8:37:05 PM PDT by Paul R. (You know your pullets are dumb if they don't recognize a half Whopper as food!)
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To: Paul R.

Counterfeit parts, and/or parts from China. Perhaps one and the same, aided and abetted by Russian organized crime bosses.


20 posted on 03/24/2022 8:38:34 PM PDT by Enterprise
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