Feeling Hot, Hot, Hot! US Home Prices Grew At 19.1% YoY In January (Is US Housing Market Addicted To Gov?)

Confounded Interest ^ | 03/01/2022 | Anthony B. Sanders

[Browns Ultra Fan]

Feeling hot, hot, hot!

Corelogic released their January housing report and its a doozy.

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 19.1% in January 2022 compared with January 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.4% in January 2022 compared with December 2021 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).

But Corelogic is still forecasting only 3.8% YoY growth in 2022.

Home prices are hot, hot, hot in all states except North Dakota and New York. The fastest growing states are lower taxes, higher growth states.

Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Diego are booming. But Chicago and Washington DC are growing at near 9% YoY.

Case-Shiller’s December report show home prices growing at 18.84% YoY thanks to Fed stimulypto and historic low inventory of homes available for sale.

Is the US housing market addicted to gov?

[Browns Ultra Fan]

Let's see what Obama's dimwitted stooge has to say today at the State of the Union address.

[cuban leaf]

I just checked. Gold and silver seem a bit warm today as well. Looks like they’ve both been on a slow and steady climb.

[Honest Nigerian]

“Unsanctioned optimism”. Or some new catch-phrase.
How many new bubbles does it take to support all the bubbles we already have?
Anyway, all my life we have been told/taught/ordered(?) to worry about things outside of our control.
Go on the “pay cash; don’t borrow to buy depreciating assets; set money aside for when you can’t work” route.
No one is coming/going to rescue YOU! But you will be taxed to rescue others.
Funny how that works?

[Dilbert San Diego]

I’ve heard a lot of the run up of housing is due to investors deciding to buy up homes and condos. And just due to supply and demand, prices have risen.

[DIRTYSECRET]

Eliminate the mortgage deduction or confine it to $200k loans. No reason why a 1%er should overbuy and get it. Confine it to one house, the first one only. It’s stupid and raises the prices.

[qaz123]

U.S. new-home sales decline for first time in 3 months February 24, 2022

https://www.crainsdetroit.com/real-estate/us-new-home-sales-decline-first-time-3-months#:~:text=Sales%20of%20new%20U.S.%20homes%20retreated%20in%20January,revised%20839%2C000%20in%20December%2C%20government%20data%20showed%20Thursday.

U.S. New-Home Sales Decline for First Time in Three Months ..... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/u-s-new-home-sales-decline-for-first-time-in-three-months

Existing home sales fall 2% as first-time buyers are priced out ..... Published Wed, Sep 22 2021 .... https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/22/existing-home-sales-fall-2percent-as-first-time-buyers-are-priced-out.html

January Homebuilding Permits Drop in Collin & Denton Counties, Despite Demand .... By Maria Guerrero • Published February 18, 2022 https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/january-homebuilding-permits-drop-in-collin-denton-counties-despite-demand/2894793/

You can’t get a contract anymore on a new construction as the cost of materials makes it damn near impossible for a builder to give a reliable number on construction costs. The price of sheet of plywood can be $50 one day and $65 the next. No way any builder is going to sign anything and stick to those numbers. They’ll be losing their shirt in the build process. And that isn’t including fuel, energy and labor costs that are all factored in.

So, what’s true? I called to see about a refinance, thinking they hadn’t shot up yet? Nope. Already significantly over what I currently have.

[unixfox]

And just due to supply and demand, prices have risen.

Importing millions of ILLEGALS will do that.

[Dilbert San Diego]

HOUSING costs are getting beyond the incomes of middle class families and their ability to qualify for a mortgage.

Some areas of the country are more costly than others, but this is a nationwide issue, not confined to traditional high cost areas.

Then again close to 2/3 of American families own their own homes. Then again, many, including me, could not afford to buy the house I live in now, if I had to buy it today at today’s prices.

[SaxxonWoods]

Darn that Supply and Demand thing. Where did it come from?

[crusher2013]

I would have thought that with inflation and the Ukraine mess that they would have gone much, much higher.

Bitcoin is up because Ukrainian people are trying to hide/move money. (Speculation)

[cgbg]

Inflationary times means inflationary psychology.

In basic terms that means buy physical stuff now instead of saving.

We can see that in the exploding prices of all “physical” assets.

Housing is just a subset of those.

[TexasGator]

“Eliminate the mortgage deduction or confine it to $200k loans. No reason why a 1%er should overbuy and get it. “

Max deduction:

Married - $750k loan
Single - $375k loan

[SaxxonWoods]

“Inflationary times means inflationary psychology.
In basic terms that means buy physical stuff now instead of saving.
We can see that in the exploding prices of all “physical” assets.
Housing is just a subset of those.”

Also:

Remember the Baby Boom? We are in an ‘echo boom’ of millions of young people who have reached home buying age and have the money to buy, so they are buying. Some are getting help from parents, many are doing it on their own, like my grandkids.

[TexasGator]

“Eliminate the mortgage deduction or confine it to $200k loans. “

I have a $220k mortgage. Better for me just to take standard deduction.

[refermech]

THis works out well for state governments as well. Rising property values equals more property taxes. Taxation without representation. Very clever.

[central_va]

This HOT Real estate market is ruining the lives of young people just starting out.

[Starboard]

That is true. Blackstone is one of the biggest buyers.

Also prices of homes in some red states have seen enormous buying pressure due to people fleeing from the blue hell holes.

[sodpoodle]

Because of job transfers, I have bought and sold many houses/condos over the years.

The best deals for me were selling 2 fully furnished condos to two young single guys (in 2006 and 2021). Low moving costs Money in the bank.

I now rent a senior apartment - no maintenance costs - it’s great. Adult children live fairly close.

[lodi90]

I expect the Chicoms are going to start pulling money out of the US. So the housing market should go down because of that. They won’t want as much exposure here when they hit Taiwan. I’d say that is guaranteed to happen now.

[woodbutcher1963]

You left out that many young people CHOSE to rent from 2008-2018.
After the great recession many people did not have the money for a down payment. Also, a small percent of people were foreclosed on and or went through bankruptcy.
Therefore, they could NOT buy a house for at least seven years.

When Trump was elected, the economy took off. People had jobs again. Their 401Ks went up along with consumer confidence. The result is that housing prices have been going up now since 2009ish(depending on local real estate).

We are now seeing the supply of houses is down 31% from a year ago. In some markets, supply of homes available to buy is down almost 50% from last year. They can not build them fast enough in many markets.