Posted on 01/24/2022 10:33:02 AM PST by Browns Ultra Fan
The stock market has never started a year falling as quickly as it is now.
The S&P 500 has dropped 11% — heading into correction territory — in the first 16 trading days of 2022 in its worst-ever start to a year, according to Bloomberg data that goes back over nine decades.
The downturn comes as traders brace for the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy and a surge in U.S. Treasury yields weighs on the outlook for stocks. A host of technical signals also suggest that more volatility may be coming up ahead.
S&P 500's 11% drop in first 16 days is worst of all years
“The Fed pulled the punchbowl, liquidity has evaporated, and the S&P and NDX broke below their 200dma for the first time since the Covid outbreak,” said Rich Ross, technical strategist at Evercore ISI.
A bear market down to the 3,800 level is likely for the S&P 500, Ross said, given “the dramatic erosion of the technical backdrop, in conjunction with the highest inflation, tightest policy, and most uncertain political and geopolitical condition in years” — not to mention its historic rally since 2020.
But look at Europe too!
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
There are middle class families who have made out like bandits under Biden (assuming you had your house and cars when the regime came to power). Federal dollars have been raining from heaven if you have kids. Your house and auto valuations, along with your 401k are through the roof. It’s been a great ride for some people but the piper is about to be paid. When that 401k hits below Trumpian levels and that loaf of bread hits $5, the regime might have to deploy the anti domestic terrorists squads for those terrorist housewives.
I strongly believe it’s better than a 50% chance.
And preparing accordingly.
Here’s the bright side, most people have a 401k. When they see that 401k shrinking fast, they will be angry at the party in power. This includes Democrats who see their 401k turned into a mini.
GETRIDDADABUM!
many of the other LW discussion boards fault Trump and his “insurrection” for the drop in the market, Russia invading Ukraine and China now threatening Taiwan. It’s like they want you to think Joe Biden is “The Victim President” who is powerless against any decision Don made years ago. Pathetic.
But many of the LW posters on those boards are excited about Ukraine and want to get in a shooting war with Russia, claiming “Joe can knock all their nukes out of the sky and turn Russia into a lake of fire”. Very disturbing, because these are folks like AOC saying this. Which means most progressives see a nuclear war with Russia as a serious alternative to be considered.
We have a nation of idiots who think nukes are once again the answer to all problems..
Not selling but BiteMe has cost me $30K in my 401 the sorry commie stooge.
The income generating power of my portfolio remains the same whether the market goes up or down.
I guess I'm about to find out far down the market must go before my dividend income is affected.
-PJ
Biden is making a run at Woodrow Wilson for the worst President ever.
He already beat Wilson, FDR, Obama, Clinton and Carter and is going into uncharted territory.
“I’m a bit heavy in long-term treasury funds since they tend to go up a lot when equity mutual funds drop bigly.”
If you are in long-term bonds, when interest rates go higher, bonds lose principle value, you can get losses just like a stock.
Money has indeed been raining from heaven. My husband and I are in the top 5% of household income in the United States, and STILL we are sent regular checks from the IRS for my teen daughter, and my teen son enrolled in Cal State has been sent multiple $1000 checks (from Cal State new Covid funding I’m guessing) for no good reason that I can tell. He does not need that money.
But that's me using it with the timing of active investing. If I was doing it as a swing investor I'd stay out of LT treasury funds for the reason you say and try to time the jump into them to ride them up as stocks drop.
No, Joe is angling for the William Henry Harrison Presidential Achievement Award.
No, Joe is angling for the William Henry Harrison Presidential Achievement Award.
October 1987 the stock marked crashed 23%
Seems like you are on top of it then. Many investors aren’t aware of that.
Retiring in 1.5 years, I was equities 100% and went to cash just as the market started degrading, so I was lucky to have 3 straight years of big gains prior to that on a nice chunk.
Going to have to look into multiple sources of bonds and stable equities with good dividends, for my income/bond portfolio. Top rated corporate bonds, hopefully will give a little bit more of a yield.
Stuck there too. This past few weeks I was happy with the dailies if I only lost in triple digits. Some recent days down $4k in a day.
This time when I go back in I'll be 75% equity funds and 25% safe funds (evenly spread out in short term and long term capital bonds funds, short term and long term treasury funds, municipal bonds, and money markets). And I'll stay in that portfolio, withdrawing 4% per year when retired, with all of the withdrawal coming from the one or two funds that happen to have the highest balances at the time (selling high). I may or may not get out of equities again in retirement if we're in another ultra high Shiller PE environment of an old bull market.
I can’t wait to get to Tampa Bay, my wife will be 57, I’ll be 62.
Same deal here, 4% drawdown. I phase in and out of equities,after a 2-3 year bull run, usually. Right now, it’s about when to get back in. Strategists and money management types, are between 4 and 11 % gains in 2022 in the S&P.
Although, I’ve been pretty much 100 stocks my whole life, I did get lucky and time the Mortgage crisis perfectly, and then got back in within 500 points of the Dow low.
Depending on what the market does between now and retirement, I’ll make my portfolio decisions. There is a lot of risk downside with very little return expected. So, this will be a challenge to stick with my conservative retirement portfolio. But, the upside and downside range just doesn’t look great. So, I’m likely to just be like 20% equities until I’m certain we are in for another long bull haul.
I’ve been reading alot of Modern Portfolio Theory and really focusing in on Retirement Portfolio risk, especially Sequence risk, where taking losses early in retirement is a big killer. Good reason to be overly conservative early, unless the market shows the all clear signs.
My biggest mistake was the 2000 bubble, lol, kept doubling down with my discretionary account. My second biggest mistake was not moving from Maryland, so my first distribution from my 401k, will be taxed by feds and also Maryland. I freaking hate Maryland and will get a last F U from them prior to getting to Florida.
Yea, I put 90% into a vanguard preservation fund 2 months ago.
It doesn’t move but loses against inflation.
They REALLY wanted their hands on those trillions in 6build 6ack 6etter.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.