Applying the 25% reduction in severity estimated in the South African study, and even the IFR for those between 50 and 59, and omicron looks more like a severe flu season.
Posted on 01/16/2022 4:44:02 PM PST by SeekAndFind
A recent study from South Africa (currently in preprint) attempts to explain why the omicron wave of the COVID-19 pandemic caused less severe illness and death than prior waves of other variants. To complete the study, researchers compared the outcomes of 5,144 patients from the fourth wave, where omicron was prevalent, to the outcomes of 11,609 patients from prior waves. They looked at deaths, severe hospitalizations, and all hospitalizations in the 14 days after diagnosis for people aged 20 and older.
The study controlled for vaccination, prior infection, comorbidities, age, and sex. The team concluded:
In the Omicron-driven wave, severe COVID-19 outcomes were reduced mostly due to protection conferred by prior infection and/or vaccination, but intrinsically reduced virulence may account for an approximately 25% reduced risk of severe hospitalization or death compared to Delta.
Their assessment is hopeful for several reasons. First, the risk from COVID has always been age-stratified, with a well-known set of comorbid conditions that increase the risk of severe illness and death. A 25% reduction in risk inherent to the virus itself reduces the risk to everyone. People who are recovered, vaccinated, unvaccinated, and those with risk factors would all face a less lethal virus.
For those under 50 who are otherwise healthy, the risk of severe illness and death was already vanishingly small. The seasonal flu’s generally quoted infection fatality rate (IFR) is 0.1%. According to Dr. Fauci, a pandemic flu may reach 0.2 or 0.3%. In a study that remains in preprint from Cathrine Axfors and Dr. John P.A. Ioannidis from Stanford, the age-adjusted IFR for COVID-19 in July 2021 was below the seasonal flu in every age group below 50.
(Excerpt) Read more at pjmedia.com ...
Its over in 4 weeks — the question now is entirely political
The stalinists will not give up power that easily.
Where the hell is the stuffed owl?
That evil man belongs in Hell from whence he came.
They controlled for vaccination and 25% is all they could get for decreased severe disease?
This is not a good number at all. Controlling for vaccination means vaxed or not vaxed. It does NOT mean new vs old vax. And we know old vax loses its value against severe disease in just a few months.
25% is amazingly small for all the sprinting to microphones to declare “mild”. If that’s all they got, then a 30% decline in vax capability will make it worse than delta with a new vax.
Read the full article.
Well, I just did. Nothing changes. They declare 25% reduction in death/severe Omicron vs Delta, controlled for vaccination and the other usual parameters.
This means an older vax can easily overwhelm this alleged less lethal variant. It’s perhaps why deaths are increasing in South Africa.
No comment on the Kaiser Permanente study? Sure, Omicron is more contagious, but a person who gets it is in far less danger than with Delta. And sure, potential to overload the hospitals is still there because it’s so much more contagious.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.01.11.22269045v1.full.pdf
“Omicron variant infections were associated with 52%, 53%, 74%, and 91% reductions in risk of any subsequent hospitalization, symptomatic hospitalization, ICU admission, and mortality, relative to Delta variant infections. Median duration of hospital stay for patients admitted with symptomatic Omicron variant infections was approximately 70% (~3.4 days) shorter than that observed among patients with symptomatic Delta variant infections. Reductions in disease severity associated with Omicron variant infections were evident among both vaccinated and unvaccinated patients, and among those with or without documented prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.”
I am just getting over this crud as I type. Started feeling yucky Friday with congestion and a cough. Had low grade fever by the end of the day. Fever all day yesterday and into today. Highest it got was just under 101. Blood oxygen levels remained normal. He a headache yesterday.
Honestly, it felt like a bad cold or a flu. Fever broke this afternoon and all I’m left with now is drainage and cough. So 3-4 days and it’s practically just a memory now.
Oh, the Kaiser study was out days ago. Old news. I wasn’t focused on it. When it first came out it was made clear samples were purely in California and there were other issues with it. I think something with age distribution, but it was a while ago. Don’t remember.
The SA thing with “controlled for vax and controlled for this and that” was more compelling. 25% ain’t much.
As of Jan. 14, 2021, the US Case Fatality Rate (CFR) — which is the percentage of Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. out of the total number of cases — is 1.33%, and which includes all people of all ages and conditions. Based on CDC statistics from between the beginning of January 2020 until Jan. 14, 2021,the CFR for those aged 0-17 calculates (Y is what % of X) to 0.01%; and for those aged 18-29 the CFR is 0.05%; for ages 30-39 it is 0.15%; for ages 40-49 it is 0.4%; for ages 50-64 it is 1.37%; but for the ages of 65-74 it rises to 4.74%; and for the combined ages of 75 to 84 then it leaps to 11.27%; and all those who are 85 and older then it jumps to 23.25%. CDC on 12/15/21.
Therefore the most dramatic increase is 75 and above which must be taken into account when determining the lethality of Covid-19 to the general population and restrictions placed upon it, and how to best protect the most vulnerable while not fostering the comorbidities that are behind most Covid-19 deaths but combating them. And Christian spiritual decline (beginning with the church).
COVID-19 CFR rates as of 12-14-21 | ||||
Age group | Covid-assigned deaths | COVID-diagnosed cases | CFR | % of Covid deaths |
0-17 | 1,099 | 8,075,771 (accumulative 0-17) | 0.0.1% | Under 0.1% |
18-29 | 5,455 | 10,792,769 | 0.05% | 0.8% |
30-39 | 12,650 | 8,370,970 | 0.15% | 1.8% |
40-49 | 28,642 | 7,137,465 | 0.4% | 4% |
50-64 | 12,6322 | 9,228,494 | 1.37% | 17.5% |
0-49 | 47,846 | 34,376,975 | 0.14% | |
0-64 | 174,168 | 43,605,469 | 0.18% | |
65-74 | 159,070 | 3,353,831 | 4.74% | 22.1% |
75-84 | 187,390 | 1,662,223 | 11.27% | 26% |
85 | 199,806 | 859,270 | 23.25% | 27.7% |
65 up | 546,266 | 5,875,324 | 9.3% | |
1-16-21: Confirmed cases as % of total US population (rounded): | ||||
All | 67,000,000 cases out of 334,000,000 Pop. = 20.06% | |||
1-16-21: Confirmed deaths as % of total US population: | ||||
All | 873,000 out of 334,000,000 Pop. = 0.26% | |||
Estimated Infection Fatality Rate (IFR: est. total infections and deaths) from February 2020 to September 2021: | ||||
All (9-21) | 921,000 est. deaths | 146.6 Million est. cases | 0.63% | |
Est. deaths as % of total US population: | ||||
All (9-21) | 921,000 est. deaths | 334,000,000 Pop | 0.28% | |
Therefore based upon statistics on those aged 0-49 who were tested as being infected with Covid-19 and judged as having died due to it, then the CFR is 0.14% while for 0-64 .it is 0.18%. In contrast, for those ages 75 and up the CFR rises to over 26%. For a comparison, the odds of dying in a motor vehicle accident are calculated to be 1 in 107 (0.93%) and your chances of getting into a motor vehicle accident are one in 366 (0.27%) for every 1,000 miles driven. And thus despite headlines of exceptions, for the young (and fit and healthy) the odds of dying from Covid-19 are very minimal.
That is, unless you are “quarantined” in the womb. since as the CDC reports, "in 2019, the abortion ratio was 195 abortions per 1,000 live births,” which means that the “pregnancy fatality rate” (PFR) is19.5% (excluding spontaneous miscarriages among known pregnancies which are estimated to average approx. 15%). Thus to impose long-term severe restrictions and requirements in the interest of saving lives (yet which restrictions have their own deleterious effects) due to an infectious somewhat preventable disease, while actually fostering the death of the most vulnerable who are safely “quarantined” in the womb of their mother — as well as doing comparatively little to combat the leading Covid-19 comorbidities — is irrationally inconsistent.
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