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Kyle Bass Believes Fed Will Be Forced To Abandon Hiking Rates As Stocks Crash
Zubu Brothers ^ | 1-14-2022

Posted on 01/13/2022 5:10:48 PM PST by blam

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To: politicket
I've been saying the same thing for quite some time on here - and was mocked for it. The Fed will not raise the FFR. They're bluffing. Hint: Price inflation can, and does, occur in deflationary conditions. Most people don't correctly understand the money supply. Most economic textbooks teach it wrongly. Is that just me saying that? No, it's the Bank of England who said it. Our monetary system is no different from theirs.

The U.S. economy is not doing very good and they want to raise rates.

41 posted on 01/13/2022 6:56:51 PM PST by TheConservativeTejano (The Business of America is Business)
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To: Toddsterpatriot
What would people do with their savings?

Pay off debts, of course.

Never said that it would be a reality - just letting folks know of the important concept that paying off debt reduces the money supply in the amount of the paid off debt (assuming it's bank-owned debt).

42 posted on 01/13/2022 7:12:47 PM PST by politicket
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To: Toddsterpatriot
It's US Treasury debt and guaranteed MBS. Why is it toxic?

The Fed bought corporate debt that was worthless - bad loans. They bought this debt at face value - acting like it was AAA rated.

Nobody will buy it now. It has no value. It's safe enough on the Fed's balance sheet - but there's no way to disburse of it going forward.

43 posted on 01/13/2022 7:14:53 PM PST by politicket
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To: SomeCallMeTim
But, not before we repeat 2008.

Oil didn't skyrocket in 2008. In fact, in the economic newsletter I was writing back then I forecast oil to drop to $30.

44 posted on 01/13/2022 7:16:58 PM PST by politicket
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To: Toddsterpatriot
why are my $20s disappearing? Paying off all debt would mean your 20's also went to pay off debt.

A complete unwinding of all debt would result in zero money. Not saying it would happen - just showing the mathematical fact.

45 posted on 01/13/2022 7:18:54 PM PST by politicket
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To: Toddsterpatriot
They hold bonds. They always hold bonds.

The Fed is holding a lot more than bonds right now. They're also holding corporate debt - they never had done that.

46 posted on 01/13/2022 7:20:32 PM PST by politicket
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To: politicket
What would people do with their savings?

Pay off debts, of course.

There is more savings than debt. Of course.

47 posted on 01/13/2022 7:21:25 PM PST by Toddsterpatriot (TANSTAAFL)
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To: politicket
The Fed bought corporate debt that was worthless - bad loans. They bought this debt at face value - acting like it was AAA rated.

When? How much?

48 posted on 01/13/2022 7:22:06 PM PST by Toddsterpatriot (TANSTAAFL)
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To: TheConservativeTejano
The U.S. economy is not doing very good and they want to raise rates.

That's exactly why they can't and won't. We're seeing price inflation in the face of monetary deflation.

They won't raise in that scenario - unless they're blooming idiots that want to destroy our markets (that are unhealthy to begin with).

One of the largest problems we have right now is taking out bank loans (creating new money) and directly putting that money into equities. Nothing is tangible in that scenario. It does nothing but create an enormous balloon that will pop at some point. There's no getting around it.

49 posted on 01/13/2022 7:23:59 PM PST by politicket
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To: Toddsterpatriot
There is more savings than debt. Of course.

You haven't read the link I posted from the Bank of England.

Your premise is a faulty one.

50 posted on 01/13/2022 7:25:00 PM PST by politicket
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To: politicket
A complete unwinding of all debt would result in zero money.

I heard you the first time. So you can't explain how or why my $20s would go away.

51 posted on 01/13/2022 7:27:20 PM PST by Toddsterpatriot (TANSTAAFL)
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To: Toddsterpatriot
When? How much?

I posted the link to the latest H.4.1 report. It's trillions of bad debt, being held as bank reserves.

In return, the Fed gave the institutions that originally owned the toxic waste newly created money - represented the full face-value of the toxic notes.

52 posted on 01/13/2022 7:28:54 PM PST by politicket
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To: Toddsterpatriot
It works something like this...


53 posted on 01/13/2022 7:29:11 PM PST by SamAdams76 (I am 42 days away from outliving John Hughes)
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To: Toddsterpatriot
So you can't explain how or why my $20s would go away.

I actually explained it quite clearly.

Meanwhile, you throw out your single sentences that fail to disprove what I've been saying.

You work for the banking sector? You seem very defensive of it.

54 posted on 01/13/2022 7:30:16 PM PST by politicket
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To: politicket
You haven't read the link I posted from the Bank of England.

I don't need to read the entire paper to know that savings are larger than debts.

55 posted on 01/13/2022 7:43:52 PM PST by Toddsterpatriot (TANSTAAFL)
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To: Toddsterpatriot

I always look forward to these exchanges.


56 posted on 01/13/2022 7:45:48 PM PST by Pelham (Q is short for quack )
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To: politicket
I posted the link to the latest H.4.1 report. It's trillions of bad debt, being held as bank reserves.

As far as I can see, all the corporate bonds from the COVID programs are gone. They were never close to $1 trillion, let alone multiple trillions.

57 posted on 01/13/2022 7:46:14 PM PST by Toddsterpatriot (TANSTAAFL)
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To: Toddsterpatriot
As far as I can see, all the corporate bonds from the COVID programs are gone.

Page 6 of the H.4.1

$2.6 trillion in MBS

Doesn't look like government debt to me.

58 posted on 01/13/2022 7:50:21 PM PST by politicket
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To: politicket; Toddsterpatriot

“It’s trillions of bad debt, being held as bank reserves.”

So why is that a problem? What effect does it have?


59 posted on 01/13/2022 7:51:41 PM PST by Pelham (Q is short for quack )
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To: politicket; Toddsterpatriot

“$2.6 trillion in MBS”

Sounds like Mortgage Backed Securities. Is that Fannie and Freddie paper?


60 posted on 01/13/2022 7:54:03 PM PST by Pelham (Q is short for quack )
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