Globalism / Great Reset –
Townhall is reporting that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau inquired about the use of martial law in February during the Freedom Convoy protests.
Two of Canada’s federal ministers talked about using tanks against the peaceful protests who were advocating for their right to not be mandated to get a vaccine.
On April 25, The Public Order Emergency Commission looked into whether the use of wartime vehicles to stop the trucker protests was justified or not. Liberal Justice Minister David Lametti wrote to liberal Public Safety Minister Marco Mendicino on Feb. 2 saying “how many tanks are you asking for? I just wanna ask [Defense Minister] Anita [Anand] how many we’ve got on hand?”
Lametti responded saying, “I reckon one will do!”
However, Lametti claimed that the use of tanks was meant to be a joke, despite Trudeau declaring martial law at the time.
Trudeau’s government defended the action of using wartime tanks saying that the country’s “social cohesion, national unity and international reputation” were at serious risk of “irremediable harms” at the hands of the peaceful protestors.
OBSERVATION – Trudeau’s crackdown was huge by itself, but martial law and deployment of tanks is a step far above that. He is in hot water for his emergency declaration and is having trouble justifying it as it undergoes mandatory review. Bottom line is he’ll have his feathers scorched but will remain in power and will continue to move to suppress the rights of Canadians on a plethora of other GGR related issues – most recently global warming versus western Canadian agriculture / ranching.
The WHO has come out with detailed plans to jab the world in its IA2030 plan (note parallel to the Agenda 2030)
What is IA2030?
IA2030 is an ambitious global strategy to maximize the lifesaving impact of vaccines that, if fully implemented, will save 50 million lives over the next decade.
• IA2030 seeks to create a world where everyone, everywhere, at every age fully benefits from vaccines for good health and well-being.
• It is designed to inspire action around the world, and inform how health ministers and other leaders develop immunization programmes and set priorities. It will also strengthen global immunization efforts by aligning all stakeholders around a shared vision, priorities, and goals.
• IA2030 is guided by four principles: it puts people in the centre, and is led by countries, implemented through broad partnerships, and driven by high-quality data. As an adaptive and flexible strategy, IA2030 will be tailored by countries to meet their needs, and revised as new opportunities and challenges emerge.
• Unlike many global plans, IA2030 was developed through a collaborative “bottom up” co-creation process that engaged thousands of stakeholders around the world. This approach has helped ensure it reflects the real needs of countries that face the greatest health inequalities. It also draws on lessons learned from implementation of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (2011-2020) and disease-specific initiatives such as polio and measles eradication efforts.
The Targets
Targets to be achieved by 2030 include:
• Achieving 90% coverage for essential vaccines given in childhood and adolescence
• Halving the number of children completely missing out on vaccines
• Completing 500 national or subnational introductions of new or under-utilized vaccines - such as those for COVID-19, rotavirus, or human papillomavirus (HPV)
OBSERVATION - Sweet smelling autocratic language to force jabs on the world based on WHO’s command and removing any authority from nations or individuals. Combined with the work to modify the WHOs treaty to include a global vax passport mandate indicates the GGR crowd is moving ahead at a faster rate, laying the ground work for its regulatory global oversight.
Wuhan virus –
In September, the Indian journal “Biomedicine” published a so-called study by self-professed “mRNA Alchemist” and biotech engineer Raymond D. Palmer, entitled “Covid 19 vaccines and the misinterpretation of perceived side effects clarity on the safety of vaccines.” The study is presently being hosted on the National Library of Medicine site, which is operated by the U.S. federal government.
While various experts, such as internationally esteemed American cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough, have issued warnings about potential downsides of the vaccines, Palmer, an astronomy hobbyist and former realtor, claimed that those wary about the COVID-19 vaccines do not just suffer “a profound lack of scientific and medical training” but are at the root of a great deal of vaccine recipients’ suffering.
Palmer’s paper claimed that various adverse effects that take place “in and around the time of receiving the [COVID-19] vaccine” may result from the “mental stress” generated by concerns about those very vaccines.
OBSERVATION – Many have noted that this is blame shifting onto those suffering reactions – it’s all in your head narrative.
Economy –
Some initial reports from Black Friday have come out. U.S. shoppers spent a record $9.12 billion online this Black Friday, a report showed on Saturday, as consumers weathered the squeeze from high inflation and grabbed steep discounts on everything from smartphones to toys.
Online spending rose 2.3% on Black Friday, Adobe Inc’s data and insights arm Adobe Analytics said, thanks to consumers holding out for discounts until the traditionally big shopping days, despite deals starting as early as October.
OBSERVATION – In store sales numbers haven’t been released that I can find. So not sure if online sales will be reflected to instore sales. I know my local Walmart was very empty on Black Friday.
Oil futures and swaps globally are increasingly showing signs of easing supply concerns and resurfaced concerns about further weakness in crude oil demand. So far this month, oil prices have dropped amid growing fears of economic slowdown and spiking Covid infections in China, where some forms of restriction on mobility have returned in nearly 50 large cities. Added to this the opening up the market again to Venezuela increased (SEE Venezuela below) the supply side of the equation – further pressuring downward pressures.
OBSERVATION – Weakness in oil demand is commonly a sign of a recessionary period where business / industrial slowdowns result in less demand for oil and related products. China’s wuhan woes is one big driver in this arena. However, the market is still very volatile and suspectable to unforeseen disruptions.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House Republicans are wasting no time to get their agenda underway as they prepare to take control of the lower chamber, alerting at least 42 officials in the Biden administration that they will be expected to testify in a slew of GOP-led investigations early next year.
OBSERVATION – Great, lots of investigations that will get no coverage by the MSM and that will go nowhere as the biden regime will not follow up on any wrong doings identified by such. An exercise in futility in large part, but in part may serve to force biden onto the defensive and divert efforts to push Marxist / progressive agenda items.
Evidence of republican civil war is breaking out over McCarthy’s bid to become the next Speaker of the House. McCarthy’s bid is at risk of falling apart due to insufficient support from his conference. This may result in multiple votes, something that hasn’t happened in nearly 100 years.
McCarthy launched his effort to be House speaker earlier this month in a closed-ballot vote by his conference. At the time, he only earned 188 of the 218 votes necessary to become speaker, with 31 votes going to his surprise challenger: House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Biggs (R-AZ). Biggs is one of the dozens of Republicans who have refused to support McCarthy’s speakership bid.
The floor vote for House speaker will be held on Jan. 3, just ahead of the start of the new Congress. While 218 votes equal a majority in the lower chamber, McCarthy only needs to win a majority of the votes from lawmakers on the floor.
House rules state that if GOP lawmakers who do not support McCarthy’s bid simply vote “present,” the final number needed to win the majority is lowered — providing him a path to victory.
OBSERVATION - Repercussions towards those who are opposing McCarthy are already rippling through the caucus. Conservative rule changes are being quickly tossed out by the eGOP moderates and a status quo operating plan moving forward. eGOP view the loss of a much larger majority a ‘win’ over Trump and his influence on the party (only eGOP can view a loss as a ‘win’).
Democrats are scrambling to pass big-spending, progressive bills before they lose full control over the legislative branch.
On November 13, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she wants to see Congress approve a debt ceiling increase in the upcoming “lame duck” session. “We want to see the debt ceiling get done. If it got done in the lame duck, that would be great, as far as I’m concerned,” Yellen said to reporters at the G20 summit meetings in Bali, Indonesia, according to US News.
“This economic scenario is cataclysmic… The downturn would be comparable to that suffered during the financial crisis” of 2008, said a report by Moody’s Analytics which predicted failure to raise the ceiling could wipe out $15 trillion in wealth and cost as many as 6 million jobs.
Schumer last week said that he wants to “get a debt ceiling done in this work period,” but acknowledged that it would be virtually impossible without bipartisan support. On the same day, Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell told reporters that he didn’t think Congress would work on the debt ceiling until “sometime next year.”
OBSERVATION – Tons of democrat pork are on the line. The ‘must pass’ nature of any debt ceiling increase makes is a lot easier for democrats to slip in other unrelated items and the pressure to pass the bill makes it hard to stop those amendments.
China –
After yesterday’s fire in a high-rise building in Urumqi, which killed at least 10 people due to lockdown measures, people in China are now breaking down gates and other obstacles that have been keeping them locked-up for months. Reports said that emergency workers took three hours to extinguish the blaze — a delay the public has attributed to obstacles caused by coronavirus curbs.
Social media users speculated that residents struggled to escape in time because the building was partially locked down. Some residents elsewhere in the city have had their doors chained physically shut.
Protests triggered by the deaths sprung up all over China in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Urumqi, Zhengzhou and Anhui province to name a few. Hundreds of students from Beijing’s elite Tsinghua University protested against COVID lockdowns on Sunday, holding up signs at the entrance of the university’s canteen, AFP news agency reported, citing witnesses. Observers were surprised by the numbers that turned out so quickly to protest the zero wuhan China policies.
The government appears to have drastically underestimated growing discontent towards the zero-Covid approach - a policy inextricably linked to Mr Xi, who recently pledged there would be no swerving from the policy. What’s more, there is no easy way out of the corner the Party appears to have painted itself into.
In response, authorities in China’s western Xinjiang region opened up some neighborhoods
China as a whole reported a fourth straight daily record of 39,791 new COVID-19 infections on Saturday, of which 3,709 were symptomatic and 36,082 were asymptomatic.
Zero-COVID emergency facility meant to house (detain) up to 20,000 in Tianhe District, Guangzhou next to the Guangdong Olympic Center Stadium. There are videos circulating on social media of other facilities, some meant for up to 80,000 ppl.
OBSERVATION – Xi is in a deep hole with his continued zero wuhan policy, and it seems he is willing to dig it deeper. These protests do not threaten his continued leadership at this stage, but do undermine social stability and popular support needed for his bigger goal – military growth and conquest of Taiwan. Chinese are tired of three years of lockdowns and other stresses to their lives.
Chinese economic impacts are also rippling across the globe due to these recent lockdown responses to record wuhan infection reports. Global oil prices are dropping due to perceived weakness in the Chinese market.
North/South Korea –
North Korean scientists have made a “wonderful leap forward in the development of the technology of mounting nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles,” Kim said, without elaborating.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said his country’s ultimate goal is to possess the world’s most powerful nuclear force, as he promoted dozens of military officers involved in the recent launch of North Korea’s largest ballistic missile, state media reported on Sunday.
OBSERVATION – Much of this is rhetoric for NK public consumption. NK doesn’t have the financial support to create a nuclear force comparable to the US. If it has successfully miniaturized nuke warheads to fit on its missiles it becomes a regional threat though and a limited threat to the US mainland via its recently tested ICBM capable rocket.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are finishing redeployment of forces removed from the west bank of the Dnipir River. Many to support fighting in the east while others are detailed to increase defenses of the access to Crimea.
Russia continues to be incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
********
Logistics –
- Growing evidence Russian forces are likely using inert (nuke warheads removed) Kh-55 cruise missiles in their massive missile strike campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure, further highlighting the depletion of the Russian military’s high-precision weapons arsenal.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- Rumors that an additional mobilization is in the forecast.
- Growing evidence that Russia is relying more and more on essentially human wave attacks reminiscent of WW2 battles.
Economic Impact –
- An investigation by Forbes’ Ukrainian service revealed the extent of the financial strains that the war in Ukraine has imposed on Russia’s annual budget. Forbes found that Russia has spent $82 billion in the first nine months of the war in Ukraine. This amount exceeds the normal army budget for the year alone.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Decreasing precipitation but increasingly cold temperatures in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Battles in the Bahkmut and Donetsk areas continue with no significant changes reported.
Russian shelling was also reduced yesterday with it mostly more sporadic in all impacted areas, Sporadic intensive phases occurred in some southeast regions. The Sumy region in the north also witnessed some intensive phases.
Deteriorating weather conditions appear to have served to limit artillery as well as air support on both sides.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russian attacks in Bilohorivka, Maryinka, Verkhnokamyanske and Spirne of Donetsk Oblast towards Silversk. Reportedly repelled by Ukraine.
Donetsk Oblast ——
The area around the towns of Pavlivka and Vuhledar in south-central Donetsk Oblast has been the scene of intense combat over the last two weeks, though little territory has changed hands. Both Russia and Ukraine have significant forces committed to this sector, with Russian Naval Infantry having suffered heavy casualties.
However, Russia is unlikely to be able to concentrate sufficient quality forces to achieve an operational breakthrough.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
As noted above, intense Russian artillery strikes in the Kherson area.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
No significant changes in current situation on the ground. Poor weather conditions and associated mud are likely to inhibit operations by both sides over the near future.
Force buildups in the of Pavlivka and Vuhledar suggest an attempt to force a south to north pincer move by Russia in order to enclose most of the remaining Donbas region. Such an offensive would lack any supporting attack from the north towards the south. However, Russia lacks the trained and equipped forces necessary for such a maneuver. Meanwhile, it is being reported that Russian forces in this sector have been taking heavy losses, further reducing Russian capabilities for an offensive.
Russia appears to have taken a pause in its strategic attacks on the Ukrainian power grid. This may be due to several factors – global pushback on the overt attempt to harm the Ukrainian people, lack of guided munitions to locally overwhelm air defenses and even potentially receiving signals that further prosecution of these attacks may bring NATO into a deeper and potentially more dangerous role in defending Ukraine. Russia has the capability to launch similar attacks in the future, though it seems to be conserving its munitions for the moment.
Belarus -
Belarussian media has reported that Belarus Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei has died “suddenly” at the age of 64.
Trips over the past month to Tehran, Iran, Delhi, India and the CSTO conference in Armenia (3 days ago) showed him in relatively good health.
RUMINT surrounds the discussion that Makei could successfully challenge the current president and that the circumstances surrounding his death have questionable components.
Iran –
Protests against the regime continue across portions of Iran.
Syria -
Turkish Air Force carried out new airstrikes on area of Tell Rifaat (N. Aleppo), under control of SDF/YPG & with Assad’s forces presence. Area from Menagh Airbase & Maaranaz was also bombed.
Turkish warplanes also hit Menag Airport in Aleppo, Syria. Fire erupted at the area.
Reports of ground troops being transported southward on Hwy 214 towards Aleppo
OBSERVATION – Turkish aggression in N Syria could upset the balance of power in the region. It is pressing in on Russian and Iranian influenced areas as well as striking close to US influenced areas. Turkey sees anyone who provides any support to the Kurdish forces in the region as fair game – even though those Kurdish forces have lead efforts to contain ISIS.
Turkey -
See Syria above
Venezuela -
Biden administration on Saturday eased some oil sanctions on Venezuela after the government of Nicolas Maduro and the opposition signed a broad ‘social accord’ to create a UN-administered fund to provide humanitarian aid to the Venezuelan people.
The agreement signed on Saturday in Mexico City by representatives of President Maduro and the opposition — including the faction backed by the United States and led by Juan Guaido — marked the resumption of long-stalled negotiations meant to find a common path out of the South American country’s complex crisis.
The relaxation of curbs on Chevron’s operations in Venezuela, which has the world’s largest oil reserves, would allow the nation to move towards re-entering global oil markets. International efforts to resolve the Venezuelan crisis have gained strength since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the pressure it has placed on global energy supplies.
OBSERVATION – Many question why biden is so gung-ho to open up Venezuela oil, yet is shutting down the US industry. However, this action has contributed to forecasts of surplus oil on the market in the near term – See Economy above.
Maduro’s agreement with the opposition will cement his rule over the country and may bring limited relief to the vast majority of the population that was stuck in the country. US has added stipulations on Maduro stopping human rights violations. Given the spineless biden administration, I expect that Maduro will continue those violations without regard to the agreement.
Central / South America General-
Heavy RUMINT in Brazil that the military may invoke intervention under Article 142 of the Brazilian Constitution, which says that the military has the role of “guaranteeing constitutional powers” under the “supreme authority of the president.” This follows Bolsonaro reported meetings with military leaders.
The widespread protests and calls for the armed forces were an escalation of the Brazilian far-right’s refusal to accept the election of Mr. da Silva, a former president whom many on the right view as a criminal because of his past corruption scandal.
OBSERVATION – BLUF – I don’t see military involvement at this stage. This could be an escalation in the political fight. There are mixed reports that military leaders are split on intervening into the election squabble over a ‘stolen’ election. Brazilian protests are being met with severe, draconian responses from the new leftist govt. And those infraction of civil rights may cause the military to get involved.
I can't believe that our National and Constitutional rights have been systematically been abrogated to an International medical/health organizations
which has systematically and continuously lied to us in the USA, and to the world community,
and has never conducted a independent and realistic investigation into the origins of the covid-19 virus.
The Untied Nations and it's agencies have lost their " raison d'être" - for supposed 'world peace', and now wants world domination and control.
Now the United Nations wants to usurp human rights and now wants to rule and control the world.
When did we vote to surrender our national sovereignty to WHO, an agency of the United Nations, which represents the world health cartel ?
Globalism / Great Reset –
“Words or actions that are disrespectful, racist, discriminatory, hostile, or harassing are not welcome” at Mass General Brigham (MGB), according to a “Patient Code of Conduct” imposed this fall after a year of development.
The code covers not only “physical or verbal threats and assaults” and “sexual or vulgar words or actions,” but also “offensive comments about others’ race, accent, religion, gender, sexual orientation, or other personal traits” or refusal to see staff based on those traits. It frowns on “unwelcome words or actions” as well.
While patients can give their side when accused of violating the code, MGB warns that it may ask them to “make other plans for their care” in response to some violations. They might also be banned from “future non-emergency care ... though we expect this to be rare.”
An advocacy group that fights “woke activists” in medicine warned this month that the code’s failure to define its terms or explain who decides violations raises the likelihood that MGB will “kick non-woke patients to the curb.”
OBSERVATION – Again, GGR ‘woke’ crowd elements working to enforce narrative compliance through denial of health care. This policy may be challenged in courts, but the tide is rising as woke appears to be taking over the medical community. This was very evident (and continues to be) in regards to wuhan and the willingness to deny treatment to non-jabbed (even though it is now proven the jab doesn’t prevent infection or the spread thereof).
Germany has set out its plan to claw back 90% of the earnings from some clean power generators as the government seeks funding for its consumer aid package.
The government is planning to skim earnings above €130 a megawatt-hour for solar, wind and nuclear, according to a draft law seen by Bloomberg News. Politicians are trying to reclaim some of the profits that companies like RWE AG are making from high power prices.
The windfall tax will be applied to electricity producers based on the fuel they use. Lignite plants will be taxed on earnings above €82 a megawatt hour and oil plants above €280. The measures will apply for 10 months, backdated to start of September 2022, until end June 2023 and could be extended to end of 2024.
OBSERVATION – The GGR snake eating its tail. This will surely increase investiment in green, won’t it? Kalifornia was attempting something similar with residential solar. Remember, all new home construction has mandated solar panels installed. Don’t remember if that lead balloon actually flew or was quickly shot down.
Economy –
Still only seeing Black Friday online sales stats – indicating a record level of sales. Brick-and-mortar merchants didn’t see the usual crush of frantic, post-Thanksgiving bargain hunters. Parking lots were easily accessed, and making your way through the mall to the store on your list was apparently hassle-free. And those interminable, miserable check-out lines? Also apparently few and far between compared to past years.
Many shoppers who opened their wallets said their purchases were strategic, not impulsive or splurges.
OBSERVATION – Retail store observations do not bode well for revenues. On-line sales apparently had better pricing than fixed stores and consumers went there with the few dollars they had after inflation. However, this may be offset a little by the numerous pre-Black Friday sales stores have been pushing for the past month in an effort to reduce excessive inventories.
The consumer sentiment index for November had deteriorated less than expected, and was revised to 56.8 from initial projections of 54.7 percent, according to the University of Michigan on Nov. 24. The results were better than most economists’ expectations with the upward revision, but still below October’s reading of 59.9, despite the improved numbers.
“Consumer sentiment fell 5% below October, offsetting about one-third of the gains posted since the historic low in June,” said the survey’s director, Joanne Hsu.
About 60 percent of consumers have already scaled back their spending in response to inflation and many are planning to further cut spending over the next 12 months, according to a separate University of Michigan survey. Many respondents said that they were increasingly reluctant to borrow for major purchases, suggesting a sharp decrease in spending, as consumers start to increasingly draw on their savings to pay bills.
About 8 percent of households have reported that they are less likely to purchase items with large price increases over the next year, while another 51 percent of families said they were cutting back on their overall spending.
OBSERVATION – Reflecting the impacts of inflation combined with higher interest rates generated by the Fed. Looking at the tea leaves, it indirectly suggests that recessional pressures are impacting families.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), a co-chair of the congressional Problem Solvers Caucus, said congressional intervention in a potentially crippling rail strike “is a last resort.”
He also told “Fox News Sunday” that “Congress will not let this strike happen.”
“So, we’re set to leave Congress on December 15th. Now, the cooling off period for this negotiation is set to end a few days before Christmas.”
“So, congressional intervention is a last resort. I suspect that after we pass the CR (continuing resolution) near December 15th, if that strike has not been averted, we’ll be called back before Christmas.”
The Railway Labor Act authorizes Congress to “avoid any interruption of interstate commerce by providing for the prompt disposition of disputes between carriers and their employees...”
OBSERVATION – Highly optimistic view by the congressman. However, the timing of the congressional recess and the end of the cooling off period will mean that if the strike kicks off, it could take days, even over a week for congress to reconvene, draft and pass legislation to stop the strike. Even a weeks worth of strike will cost the economy probably in the order of tens of billions of dollars. IIRC some estimated about 2 billion per day.
Another 1.8 million chickens were ordered to be culled in Nebraska after agriculture officials analyzed yet another bird flu outbreak on a farm. Nebraska Department of Agriculture (NDA) issued a report, which adds that this is the 13th farm in the state to suffer an outbreak this year. According to the report, 6.8 million birds have been killed in Nebraska - the second-most behind Iowa, which has killed 15.5 million.
CW2/Domestic violence –
FBI Director Christopher Wray said juveniles are contributing to the increase in violent crime from 2020 to 2021.
“There are a few things. First, I would say the traditional drivers are all there, drugs, illegal gun trafficking, gangs, socioeconomic factors. So, those are all still present.”
“But in addition to that, we are seeing, and I hear this from chiefs and sheriffs all the time as well as from our own agents, an alarming uptick in the incidents of juveniles engaging in violence, often graduating from carjackings to even worse violence. And that is a real challenge for the legal system, because we’re not set up to very effectively deal with crimes committed by minors.”
“We are also seeing — not everywhere but an awful lot of places, we are seeing way too many dangerous offenders getting back out on the streets. And the only thing more frustrating to the hardworking men of law enforcement than having to arrest somebody who should have been behind bars is having to arrest the same person over and over again.”
OBSERVATION – Yes, the prosecution of these repeat offenders (along with incarceration there of) is probably the biggest driver of this crime trend. Particularly in blue cities with Soro-backed DA’s and civic leadership running revolving door jails – sending the ferals back on the streets within hours and no bail. Not rocket science. They have no fear of being punishes for their actions and will by nature push to worse and worse crimes and behavior.
China –
The wave of civil disobedience is unprecedented in mainland China since President Xi Jinping assumed power a decade ago, as frustration of a billion Chinese mounts over his signature zero-COVID policy nearly three years into the pandemic. China’s zero covid policy has citizens being forced to isolate in their homes for weeks, many lacking food and medicine.
Major protests are growing in Beijing and Shanghai. Protests are also growing on the nation’s university campuses as well.
Chinese protesters have turned to blank sheets of paper to express their anger over COVID-19 restrictions. The blank sheets represent what the protestors want to say but are censored and otherwise denied the ability to say.
Some observers note that there is an apparent morphing of the protests from the wuhan lockdowns to a general rejection of the Xi administration in general, with increased calls for his resignation.
Police have barely been able to keep up with the protests. It is believed that thousands have been arrested so far and that many have been beaten. A high profile senior BBC reporter was beaten and held in confinement for several hours for covering one protest. Chinese officials claimed their actions were to protect him from getting wuhan from the crowds.
The zero COVID measures have been exacting a heavy toll on the world’s second-largest economy. Now combined with civic protests, the situation is generating economic uncertainty on multiple levels.
OBSERVATION – With vast numbers of citizens are chanting anti-CCP and anti-Xi-Jinping slogans, you know things are getting real. Will Xi crack down on the protests, or will he offer concessions? Should he choose to crack down, then the likelihood of economic tremors reaching beyond the Chinese borders grow – creating supply chain breakdowns, shortages, etc. Increasingly brutal repression, punishment and lockdowns, risks changing the populace’s understanding of the social contract in a destabilizing dynamic, generating more protests.
But offering concessions opens the door to demands for further concessions, and this path is an equally destabilizing dynamic of more protests.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are finishing redeployment of forces removed from the west bank of the Dnipir River. Many to support fighting in the east while others are detailed to increase defenses of the access to Crimea.
Russia continues to be incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
********
Russian Personnel Issues –
- Mobilized Russians in Sverdlovsk region of Russia are reportedly suffering from a mass outbreak of infectious diseases, but doctors are unable to treat them due to a lack of equipment and medicine. This is likely the result of overcrowded, insanitary conditions at their training area.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Decreasing precipitation but increasingly cold temperatures in the 10-day forecast period.
RUMINT –
Energoatom head - Russian forces may be preparing to withdraw from Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, occupied since March. Petro Kotin, president of Ukraine’s nuclear energy operator Energoatom, told the Ukraine TV show TSN that Russians could transfer control of the plant to the International Atomic Energy Agency, although he provided no timeline.
“It looks like they’re packing and stealing whatever they can find,” Kotin said.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian shelling increased again around Bakhmut where it was very intensive in phases to cover Russian localized offensives. Unconfirmed reports of some minor Russian advances. Bakhmut continues to hold despite the most significant pressure from Russian forces in several directions.
Shelling elsewhere was mostly more sporadic yesterday. Shelling exchanges continued sporadically north of Kherson.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine continues to pressure the Silversk – Kreminna defensive line
Donetsk Oblast ——
NSR
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Russian’s have established a layered defensive on the left (eastern) Dnipir River region of occupied Kherson Oblast, suggesting that the Russian military leadership views the prospect of a Ukrainian counteroffensive across the Dnipro River as a serious threat. Such a counteroffensive would likely target Crimea as a strategic goal.
As noted above, Russian artillery strikes continued in the Kherson area.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
The daily pattern continues to remain the same as for weeks now. Russian attacks Bakhmut and Donetsk areas to little or no avail.
Ukraine appears to be in a bit of a tactical pause following liberation of Kherson west of the Dnipir.
Weather conditions are hampering operations on both sides.
One very noticeable thing is the substantial decrease in Russian artillery fire. As Ive noted before, this is a combination of loss of ammo dumps, and the loss of artillery pieces due to Ukraine strikes or failure of gun components. This is one of the major reasons Russia has not been able to muster much of an offensive – even localized. Their doctrine emphasizes massive artillery fires to cover attacks. They just don’t have the desired superiority any more. Even their priorities - Bakhmut and Donetsk, are only receiving a fraction of the support they once could muster.
Pakistan -
Ousted PM calls off march on Islamabad to avoid further chaos but continues to press for early elections, possibly by pulling his PTI party out of regional assemblies
Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan told tens of thousands of supporters on Saturday that he would fight until his “last drop of blood” in his first public address since being shot in an assassination attempt this month. Saturday’s rally was the climax of a so-called “long march” by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party to press the government to call a snap election before parliament’s term expires in October next year.
Khan said on Saturday he was calling off his protest march to Islamabad because he feared it would cause havoc in the country. The protests were to culminate in a march to Islamabad which threatened to worsen political turmoil in the nuclear-armed country, which is also battling an economic crisis.
“I have decided not to go to Islamabad because I know there will be havoc and the loss will be to the country,” Khan told a gathering of thousands of supporters in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, near the capital, Islamabad.
OBSERVATION – Looks like Khan is stepping back a bit from his push to be restored as PM. He may be assessing that he doesn’t have the support he needs and realizes a civil war would not be a good thing. It also doesn’t help when you separate yourself from your supporters with barb wire and all cell phones are jammed.
Iran –
Protests against the regime continue across portions of Iran. The tally of those killed and arrested during the protests is rising. At least 448 people have been killed. More than 18,000 protesters have been arrested. Human Rights Activists in Iran, a group that is monitoring the protests, said that Iran is not offering a number of those arrested or who have died.
The members of the Basij, the volunteer paramilitary wing of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard, are being praised by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, for their efforts in quashing protests. He praised the Basij forces during a televised address on Saturday as dozens of eye doctors warned that there are a rising number of protesters who are being blinded by the violent forces as they break up anti-government protests.
Blinding the protesters is something that is happening regularly, according to a group of ophthalmologists.
In a letter, 140 ophthalmologists raised concerns about a rising number of patients with severe eye injuries resulting from being shot with metal pellets and rubber bullets, according to pro-reform Iranian news site Sobhema and Iran International as well as other sites on social media. “Unfortunately in many cases the hit caused the loss of sight in one or both eyes,” the letter, addressed to the head of the country’s ophthalmologists association, said.
OBSERVATION – Iran is making more martyrs for the cause. The brutality of the regime’s forces is standard practice for many Islamic countries.
Iranian regime and IRGC media channels published a video threatening to attack Azerbaijan using rhetoric similar to that used about Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War.
OBSERVATION – Iran is still looking to pick a fight with Azerbaijan. This on top of the other fights its picking - Kurds, internal protests, Israel, etc.
For you geologists out there, Moa Loa has resumed eruptions, currently confined to the summit caldera but could spread down one of the fracture zones on the flanks. IIRC last eruption was in 1968.