Globalism / Great Reset –
“Words or actions that are disrespectful, racist, discriminatory, hostile, or harassing are not welcome” at Mass General Brigham (MGB), according to a “Patient Code of Conduct” imposed this fall after a year of development.
The code covers not only “physical or verbal threats and assaults” and “sexual or vulgar words or actions,” but also “offensive comments about others’ race, accent, religion, gender, sexual orientation, or other personal traits” or refusal to see staff based on those traits. It frowns on “unwelcome words or actions” as well.
While patients can give their side when accused of violating the code, MGB warns that it may ask them to “make other plans for their care” in response to some violations. They might also be banned from “future non-emergency care ... though we expect this to be rare.”
An advocacy group that fights “woke activists” in medicine warned this month that the code’s failure to define its terms or explain who decides violations raises the likelihood that MGB will “kick non-woke patients to the curb.”
OBSERVATION – Again, GGR ‘woke’ crowd elements working to enforce narrative compliance through denial of health care. This policy may be challenged in courts, but the tide is rising as woke appears to be taking over the medical community. This was very evident (and continues to be) in regards to wuhan and the willingness to deny treatment to non-jabbed (even though it is now proven the jab doesn’t prevent infection or the spread thereof).
Germany has set out its plan to claw back 90% of the earnings from some clean power generators as the government seeks funding for its consumer aid package.
The government is planning to skim earnings above €130 a megawatt-hour for solar, wind and nuclear, according to a draft law seen by Bloomberg News. Politicians are trying to reclaim some of the profits that companies like RWE AG are making from high power prices.
The windfall tax will be applied to electricity producers based on the fuel they use. Lignite plants will be taxed on earnings above €82 a megawatt hour and oil plants above €280. The measures will apply for 10 months, backdated to start of September 2022, until end June 2023 and could be extended to end of 2024.
OBSERVATION – The GGR snake eating its tail. This will surely increase investiment in green, won’t it? Kalifornia was attempting something similar with residential solar. Remember, all new home construction has mandated solar panels installed. Don’t remember if that lead balloon actually flew or was quickly shot down.
Economy –
Still only seeing Black Friday online sales stats – indicating a record level of sales. Brick-and-mortar merchants didn’t see the usual crush of frantic, post-Thanksgiving bargain hunters. Parking lots were easily accessed, and making your way through the mall to the store on your list was apparently hassle-free. And those interminable, miserable check-out lines? Also apparently few and far between compared to past years.
Many shoppers who opened their wallets said their purchases were strategic, not impulsive or splurges.
OBSERVATION – Retail store observations do not bode well for revenues. On-line sales apparently had better pricing than fixed stores and consumers went there with the few dollars they had after inflation. However, this may be offset a little by the numerous pre-Black Friday sales stores have been pushing for the past month in an effort to reduce excessive inventories.
The consumer sentiment index for November had deteriorated less than expected, and was revised to 56.8 from initial projections of 54.7 percent, according to the University of Michigan on Nov. 24. The results were better than most economists’ expectations with the upward revision, but still below October’s reading of 59.9, despite the improved numbers.
“Consumer sentiment fell 5% below October, offsetting about one-third of the gains posted since the historic low in June,” said the survey’s director, Joanne Hsu.
About 60 percent of consumers have already scaled back their spending in response to inflation and many are planning to further cut spending over the next 12 months, according to a separate University of Michigan survey. Many respondents said that they were increasingly reluctant to borrow for major purchases, suggesting a sharp decrease in spending, as consumers start to increasingly draw on their savings to pay bills.
About 8 percent of households have reported that they are less likely to purchase items with large price increases over the next year, while another 51 percent of families said they were cutting back on their overall spending.
OBSERVATION – Reflecting the impacts of inflation combined with higher interest rates generated by the Fed. Looking at the tea leaves, it indirectly suggests that recessional pressures are impacting families.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), a co-chair of the congressional Problem Solvers Caucus, said congressional intervention in a potentially crippling rail strike “is a last resort.”
He also told “Fox News Sunday” that “Congress will not let this strike happen.”
“So, we’re set to leave Congress on December 15th. Now, the cooling off period for this negotiation is set to end a few days before Christmas.”
“So, congressional intervention is a last resort. I suspect that after we pass the CR (continuing resolution) near December 15th, if that strike has not been averted, we’ll be called back before Christmas.”
The Railway Labor Act authorizes Congress to “avoid any interruption of interstate commerce by providing for the prompt disposition of disputes between carriers and their employees...”
OBSERVATION – Highly optimistic view by the congressman. However, the timing of the congressional recess and the end of the cooling off period will mean that if the strike kicks off, it could take days, even over a week for congress to reconvene, draft and pass legislation to stop the strike. Even a weeks worth of strike will cost the economy probably in the order of tens of billions of dollars. IIRC some estimated about 2 billion per day.
Another 1.8 million chickens were ordered to be culled in Nebraska after agriculture officials analyzed yet another bird flu outbreak on a farm. Nebraska Department of Agriculture (NDA) issued a report, which adds that this is the 13th farm in the state to suffer an outbreak this year. According to the report, 6.8 million birds have been killed in Nebraska - the second-most behind Iowa, which has killed 15.5 million.
CW2/Domestic violence –
FBI Director Christopher Wray said juveniles are contributing to the increase in violent crime from 2020 to 2021.
“There are a few things. First, I would say the traditional drivers are all there, drugs, illegal gun trafficking, gangs, socioeconomic factors. So, those are all still present.”
“But in addition to that, we are seeing, and I hear this from chiefs and sheriffs all the time as well as from our own agents, an alarming uptick in the incidents of juveniles engaging in violence, often graduating from carjackings to even worse violence. And that is a real challenge for the legal system, because we’re not set up to very effectively deal with crimes committed by minors.”
“We are also seeing — not everywhere but an awful lot of places, we are seeing way too many dangerous offenders getting back out on the streets. And the only thing more frustrating to the hardworking men of law enforcement than having to arrest somebody who should have been behind bars is having to arrest the same person over and over again.”
OBSERVATION – Yes, the prosecution of these repeat offenders (along with incarceration there of) is probably the biggest driver of this crime trend. Particularly in blue cities with Soro-backed DA’s and civic leadership running revolving door jails – sending the ferals back on the streets within hours and no bail. Not rocket science. They have no fear of being punishes for their actions and will by nature push to worse and worse crimes and behavior.
China –
The wave of civil disobedience is unprecedented in mainland China since President Xi Jinping assumed power a decade ago, as frustration of a billion Chinese mounts over his signature zero-COVID policy nearly three years into the pandemic. China’s zero covid policy has citizens being forced to isolate in their homes for weeks, many lacking food and medicine.
Major protests are growing in Beijing and Shanghai. Protests are also growing on the nation’s university campuses as well.
Chinese protesters have turned to blank sheets of paper to express their anger over COVID-19 restrictions. The blank sheets represent what the protestors want to say but are censored and otherwise denied the ability to say.
Some observers note that there is an apparent morphing of the protests from the wuhan lockdowns to a general rejection of the Xi administration in general, with increased calls for his resignation.
Police have barely been able to keep up with the protests. It is believed that thousands have been arrested so far and that many have been beaten. A high profile senior BBC reporter was beaten and held in confinement for several hours for covering one protest. Chinese officials claimed their actions were to protect him from getting wuhan from the crowds.
The zero COVID measures have been exacting a heavy toll on the world’s second-largest economy. Now combined with civic protests, the situation is generating economic uncertainty on multiple levels.
OBSERVATION – With vast numbers of citizens are chanting anti-CCP and anti-Xi-Jinping slogans, you know things are getting real. Will Xi crack down on the protests, or will he offer concessions? Should he choose to crack down, then the likelihood of economic tremors reaching beyond the Chinese borders grow – creating supply chain breakdowns, shortages, etc. Increasingly brutal repression, punishment and lockdowns, risks changing the populace’s understanding of the social contract in a destabilizing dynamic, generating more protests.
But offering concessions opens the door to demands for further concessions, and this path is an equally destabilizing dynamic of more protests.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are finishing redeployment of forces removed from the west bank of the Dnipir River. Many to support fighting in the east while others are detailed to increase defenses of the access to Crimea.
Russia continues to be incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
********
Russian Personnel Issues –
- Mobilized Russians in Sverdlovsk region of Russia are reportedly suffering from a mass outbreak of infectious diseases, but doctors are unable to treat them due to a lack of equipment and medicine. This is likely the result of overcrowded, insanitary conditions at their training area.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Decreasing precipitation but increasingly cold temperatures in the 10-day forecast period.
RUMINT –
Energoatom head - Russian forces may be preparing to withdraw from Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, occupied since March. Petro Kotin, president of Ukraine’s nuclear energy operator Energoatom, told the Ukraine TV show TSN that Russians could transfer control of the plant to the International Atomic Energy Agency, although he provided no timeline.
“It looks like they’re packing and stealing whatever they can find,” Kotin said.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian shelling increased again around Bakhmut where it was very intensive in phases to cover Russian localized offensives. Unconfirmed reports of some minor Russian advances. Bakhmut continues to hold despite the most significant pressure from Russian forces in several directions.
Shelling elsewhere was mostly more sporadic yesterday. Shelling exchanges continued sporadically north of Kherson.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine continues to pressure the Silversk – Kreminna defensive line
Donetsk Oblast ——
NSR
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Russian’s have established a layered defensive on the left (eastern) Dnipir River region of occupied Kherson Oblast, suggesting that the Russian military leadership views the prospect of a Ukrainian counteroffensive across the Dnipro River as a serious threat. Such a counteroffensive would likely target Crimea as a strategic goal.
As noted above, Russian artillery strikes continued in the Kherson area.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
The daily pattern continues to remain the same as for weeks now. Russian attacks Bakhmut and Donetsk areas to little or no avail.
Ukraine appears to be in a bit of a tactical pause following liberation of Kherson west of the Dnipir.
Weather conditions are hampering operations on both sides.
One very noticeable thing is the substantial decrease in Russian artillery fire. As Ive noted before, this is a combination of loss of ammo dumps, and the loss of artillery pieces due to Ukraine strikes or failure of gun components. This is one of the major reasons Russia has not been able to muster much of an offensive – even localized. Their doctrine emphasizes massive artillery fires to cover attacks. They just don’t have the desired superiority any more. Even their priorities - Bakhmut and Donetsk, are only receiving a fraction of the support they once could muster.
Pakistan -
Ousted PM calls off march on Islamabad to avoid further chaos but continues to press for early elections, possibly by pulling his PTI party out of regional assemblies
Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan told tens of thousands of supporters on Saturday that he would fight until his “last drop of blood” in his first public address since being shot in an assassination attempt this month. Saturday’s rally was the climax of a so-called “long march” by Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party to press the government to call a snap election before parliament’s term expires in October next year.
Khan said on Saturday he was calling off his protest march to Islamabad because he feared it would cause havoc in the country. The protests were to culminate in a march to Islamabad which threatened to worsen political turmoil in the nuclear-armed country, which is also battling an economic crisis.
“I have decided not to go to Islamabad because I know there will be havoc and the loss will be to the country,” Khan told a gathering of thousands of supporters in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, near the capital, Islamabad.
OBSERVATION – Looks like Khan is stepping back a bit from his push to be restored as PM. He may be assessing that he doesn’t have the support he needs and realizes a civil war would not be a good thing. It also doesn’t help when you separate yourself from your supporters with barb wire and all cell phones are jammed.
Iran –
Protests against the regime continue across portions of Iran. The tally of those killed and arrested during the protests is rising. At least 448 people have been killed. More than 18,000 protesters have been arrested. Human Rights Activists in Iran, a group that is monitoring the protests, said that Iran is not offering a number of those arrested or who have died.
The members of the Basij, the volunteer paramilitary wing of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard, are being praised by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, for their efforts in quashing protests. He praised the Basij forces during a televised address on Saturday as dozens of eye doctors warned that there are a rising number of protesters who are being blinded by the violent forces as they break up anti-government protests.
Blinding the protesters is something that is happening regularly, according to a group of ophthalmologists.
In a letter, 140 ophthalmologists raised concerns about a rising number of patients with severe eye injuries resulting from being shot with metal pellets and rubber bullets, according to pro-reform Iranian news site Sobhema and Iran International as well as other sites on social media. “Unfortunately in many cases the hit caused the loss of sight in one or both eyes,” the letter, addressed to the head of the country’s ophthalmologists association, said.
OBSERVATION – Iran is making more martyrs for the cause. The brutality of the regime’s forces is standard practice for many Islamic countries.
Iranian regime and IRGC media channels published a video threatening to attack Azerbaijan using rhetoric similar to that used about Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War.
OBSERVATION – Iran is still looking to pick a fight with Azerbaijan. This on top of the other fights its picking - Kurds, internal protests, Israel, etc.
For you geologists out there, Moa Loa has resumed eruptions, currently confined to the summit caldera but could spread down one of the fracture zones on the flanks. IIRC last eruption was in 1968.
Is Iran the world's worst hellhole?
A little slow getting this out this morning. Granddaughter needed a little more lap/cuddle time than normal. Doesn’t have me wrapped around her little finger, oh no :)
A busy report today as well.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Senators Klobuchar (D-MN), Cassidy (R-LA), Brown (D-OH), and Markey (D-MA) sent a letter urging Health and Human Services and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to convene the Drug Shortage Task Force and identify causes and potential solutions to the amoxicillin shortage. Amoxicillin is a popular antibiotic drug. The Senators also requested an update from the FDA on steps taken to prevent and mitigate drug shortages.
OBSERVATION - Here is another under the radar effect coming from the GGR crowd as they push to control the medical industry. This has all the trappings of the similar shortage of baby formula (that still isn’t resolved).
The Canadian Paediatric Society (CPS) released a new treatise on this topic called “Medical Assistance in Dying: A Paediatric Perspective.” Here is what is stated as its mission and purpose:
“Ensuring that newborns, children and youth receive the highest possible standard of care as they are dying is a privilege and a responsibility for physicians and allied professionals. Bringing a thoughtful, respectful and personal approach to every end-of-life situation is an essential and evolving duty of care, and the process should meet each patient’s (and family’s) unique social, cultural and spiritual needs.”
OBSERVATION – More and more, the GGR/WEF reveals itself as a death cult. Using Canada as one of its proxies to beta test the plan and get the public to eventually accept the practice. Never forget – they want to eliminate at least 50% of the global population by 2050(?) and the Georgia Guidestones drawdown humanity to 500 million.
The NYT published an article stating that “there is emerging evidence of potential harm from using blockers, according to reviews of scientific papers and interviews with more than 50 doctors and academic experts around the world.” This “emerging evidence” is causing some doctors (especially in Europe) to halt the practice of prescribing these blockers.
OBSERVATION – Again, the population reduction angle by the GGR. When the child gets this surgery and chemicals – they become infertile -no kids – another way of reducting the ‘excess population’. A bonus to the attack on the family and morality.
Wuhan virus –
Fauci’s lies and incompetence being exposed under disposition. We already knew that though.
Economy –
According to a report by the California Department of Food and Agriculture, the driest three-year period on record has resulted in a $3 billion revenue loss for California farmers after a total of 1.3 million acres went unplanted in 2021 and 2022. The Central Valley, which grows about one quarter of all food in the U.S., has experienced the majority of revenue loss. Governor Newsome is considering a push to increase organic farming to 30% of all agricultural production. According to an analysis by ERA Economics, this policy could crash the organic produce market and increase consumer prices.
OBSERVATION – These numbers do not include impacts to agriculture in other states. The last two years with drought and bird flu have hit the industry pretty hard – not to mention the growing impacts from high diesel prices and fertilizer. All this runs down hill to consumers and will maintain the high costs / inflation at the store.
Biden called on Congress to codify without modification or delay the agreement the administration brokered between rail unions and companies in September. In the statement, President Biden warned that attempts to modify the deal in Congress would risk delay and a debilitating shutdown of rail networks. Speaker of the House Representative Pelosi said the House will take up a bill without any changes to the negotiated terms of the agreement this week.
OBSERVATION – Two key items – forcing the agreement pre strike. At this stage, the democrat rhetoric seems very supportive. Second, passing a ‘clean’ bill – one that doesn’t add or subtract from the already negotiated deal – that will be hard for dems to do, but I think they may have the political resolve to pull it off. Even though two years away from the presidential elections, allowing a strike that could devastate the country’s economy to the point that it could still be struggling come Nov 2024 is not palatable for them.
The head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, said Monday that she didn’t believe inflation in Europe has peaked. According to Lagarde, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to continue raising interest rates in an effort to stave off inflation, currently sitting at 10.6%.
OBSERVATION – The interlinked global economy doesn’t grant the US a free pass on inflation pressures coming from external sources. Uncontrolled inflation in Europe will be reflected in the US on goods / services coming from the EU.
New Jersey-based BlockFi filed for bankruptcy after exposure to FTX led to a liquidity crisis, but said it does not face the ‘myriad issues’ as that exchange. BlockFi also sued a holding company for FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried to recover shares in Robinhood pledged as collateral three weeks ago.
OBSERVATION – Aftershocks from the FTX disaster continue to ripple around the crypto world. BlockFi is not the only ones facing bankruptcy Serious investigation into FTX will likely be slowed or even blocked because of the links to democrat and republican political powerhouses – and an investigation will reveal just how corrupt the whole system was.
Inflation will likely persist into 2024, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard warned on Wednesday, suggesting interest rates could likely surge even higher as the Fed battles rising prices.
“I think we’ll probably have to stay there all during 2023 and into 2024,” Bullard told MarketWatch of high interest rates, estimating they could reach between 5 and 7 percent.
Bullard pointed to low unemployment numbers and indicated the jobs market’s strength would enable the Fed to tackle inflation head on through more rate hikes.
“The fact that the labor market is so strong gives us license to pursue our disinflationary strategy now and try to get the inflation under control now. So we don’t replay the 1970s, where the FOMC at that time took 15 years to get inflation under control,” he said.
OBSERVATION - Continued high fed rates will continue to depress the housing market – a key component who’s growth is necessary to pull out of a recession. A note on the ‘low’ unemployment numbers – remember those numbers have been cooked a while ago to make democrats look better (ie 0bama) and understate the numbers.
IN RELATED - Homebuyers in the United States must earn six-figure salaries in order to afford a median-priced home, according to an analysis from real estate brokerage Redfin.
As housing prices remain elevated and the monthly mortgage payment on the typical home surges more than 45% since the same time last year to reach $2,682, the annual salary required to afford such a property has increased from $73,668 to $107,281. Average hourly wages have nominally increased 5% over the same period as inflation continues to erode consumer purchasing power.
OBSERVATION – I’m no economic guru, but my memory and gut say that it will be years before the ability of Americans to purchase a decent home comes back into balance. Continued fed prime rate increases will continue to keep homes out of reach.
MORE RELATED - Bank of America Corp. chief executive officer Brian Moynihan said activity in the U.S. housing market will probably slow for two years as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, according to an interview Tuesday on CNN.
“This is the toughest thing, because you have to slow down the economy, you have to slow down inflation, and the way you do that is raising interest rates,” Moynihan said, referring to the Fed’s actions. “The intended outcome of their policies doesn’t feel good when you’re trying to buy a home.”
The Fed’s efforts to tame inflation could take about two years, leading to a slowdown in mortgage activity, he said. Rising rents are also going to strain on the finances of Americans who rent their homes, he said.
OBSERVATION – Guess my experience and gut found an ally in Moynihan. This bodes ill for any recession that the fed gets started.
Invasion of Illegals –
The U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday is set to consider whether President Joe Biden’s administration can implement guidelines — challenged by two conservative-leaning states — shifting immigration enforcement toward public safety threats in a case testing executive branch power to set enforcement priorities.
The justices will hear the administration’s bid to overturn a judge’s ruling in favor of Texas and Louisiana that vacated U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) guidelines narrowing the scope of those who can be targeted by immigration agents for arrest and deportation.
The Democratic president’s policy departed from the hardline approach of his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, who sought to broaden the range of immigrants subject to arrest and removal. Biden campaigned on a more humane approach to immigration but has been faced with large numbers of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border.
OBSERVATION – Even if defeated, it is likely biden et al will just wordsmith the guidelines to just push it outside the court’s decision while retaining the essential core of its policy.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Numbers released Monday show that the FBI ran 192,749 National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) background checks on Black Friday 2022.
The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF) noted that the 192,749 NICS checks on Black Friday 2022 “[rank] it third in the Top 10 Highest Days for NICS checks and…[represent] a 2.8 percent increase from Black Friday 2021.”
OBSERVATION – America continues to arm up as crime skyrockets and the growing willingness of the govt to target citizens of the opposite political spectrum as ‘domestic terrorists’.
RELATED – Reports that number of people routinely carrying loaded handguns for protection had more than doubled in a four-year period. From 2015 to 2019, the number of regularly armed citizens swelled from three million to six million. (The Blaze)
OBSERVATION – The right to protect self, family and friends shall not be infringed.
MORE RELATED - Meanwhile, Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) admitted that President Joe Biden has “probably not” secured the needed 60 votes to pass gun control in the lame-duck session of Congress.
OBSERVATION – The democrats gained seats with the midterms. Combined with the turncoat republicans, they could patch a bill together next congress that secures the 60 votes necessary to get around a filibuster. The line will have to be held in the house to prevent such a disaster from reaching biden’s desk.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Reports that Apple is threatening to remove Twitter from its App store. Fireworks at 10, break out the popcorn.
OBSERVATION - Can’t believe Apple would be that stupid – but then again that is based on Before Times thinking. Meanwhile, twitter activity and signups have reached an all time high.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The lame duck congress has the following democrat priorities they are working on before it ends
1. To avoid a government shutdown, Congress must pass a federal funding package by Dec. 16. Some Democrats are considering a week-long continuing resolution.
2. Fiscal Year 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)
3. Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act Republican Maine Sen. Susan Collins’ bill would limit the ability of members of Congress to object to electoral count slates. It raises the threshold necessary for Congress to consider an objection from one representative and one senator to one-fifth of each chamber.
4. Respect for Marriage Act. Some conservatives argue the legislation as written does not provide enough religious liberty protections. Utah Sen. Mike Lee is pushing for an amendment to the legislation, but three Republicans would have to flip their votes to enforce a filibuster.
Biden Energy Department official Sam Brinton, the non-binary drag queen who served as the department’s deputy assistant secretary for spent fuel and waste disposition, was charged with stealing women’s luggage at the Minneapolis airport in September, before taking a leave of absence.
According to a criminal complaint filed on Oct. 26 in Minnesota state court, Brinton while traveling from Washington DC allegedly stole a $2,325 Vera Bradley suitcase from a luggage carousel at the Minneapolis St. Paul Airport on Sept. 16.
OBSERVATION – Unbelievable piece of mindwarped trash controlling our nuclear materials. And yet the senate approved the appointment.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
The executive director of the Air Marshal National Council has a message for the Biden administration. She warns that air travel is becoming less safe because air marshals are being diverted to the border.
Sonia Labosco called on the Biden administration to stop sending air marshals to the U.S-Mexico border on Monday. She asked that they be returned to their regular duties patrolling commercial flights. She’s worried about another 9/11 type of terrorist attack.
“We have been decimated. We have been depleted. We’re on less than 1% of flights. These ground-based duties that they’re pulling us out of the sky to go to the border are just demolishing our chances at stopping another 9/11.”
“We actually wrote him another letter over the weekend because we had a level four and a level three incident. Level four means that they tried to breach the cockpit. Level three, we had two of those, which means there were life-threatening behaviors on one of those aircraft. An individual had a straight razor to a passenger’s throat. So these are very serious incidents.”
OBSERVATION – Not surprising that biden et al are letting the ball get dropped on this aspect too. He didn’t care – he was off vacationing, again.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Israel Air Force this week will hold one of its largest drills in years with the United States Air Force simulating offensive strikes against Iran’s nuclear program.
The drill will take place from Tuesday until Thursday over the Mediterranean Sea and Israel. It will include long-range flights such as those that Israeli pilots might need to make in order to reach the Islamic Republic.
The exercise will include refuelers as well as fighter jets from both forces.
OBSERVATION – The proof of the pudding is if biden authorizes this level of support when (not if) Israel has to act to take our Iran’s program.
China –
Protests have died down some in China this past Monday. The regime has launched a cyber counter offensive on some social media platforms when one searches for a Chinese citiy. The search results is flooded by porn and other ‘advertising’ links in order to bury any protest related information.
Police forces in affected cities have slowly forced the protests back to a degree. They have established barriers/fences to keep protestors away from central areas of the city and police began stopping and searching pedestrians in Shanghai and Beijing, although there were no signs of protests on Monday. Police are also searching mobile phones for signs of VPNs and western social media applications like Telegram, which are outlawed in China.
Yesterday, the White House issued a statement on the protests in China: “We’ve long said everyone has the right to peacefully protest, here in the United States and around the world. This includes in the PRC,” a National Security Council spokesperson says.
OBSERVATION – These protests appear not to have any legs and the citizenry are being cowed back into submission as they have been trained to.
Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen resigned from the head of her ruling party after staggering midterm election losses that put the opposition Kuomintang in charge of 22 municipalities. It was the worst loss for the Democratic Progressive Party in its 36-year history.
OBSERVATION – Tsai has been a hardliner on not holding reunification talks with China. Change in political power may usher in a potential alternative to Chinese military take over. No sign yet of how the Chinese wuhan protests may effect the Taiwanese thinking.
North/South Korea –
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol says if North Korea conducts a new nuclear test Kim Jong Un should expect a response “not seen in the past”. -Reuters
OBSERVATION - Yoon ran as a war hawk in the recent elections and SK’s more aggressive stance and responses to NK provocations to date are evidence he’s for real on that issue. However, this threatens a serious escalation depending on just what that ‘response’ is.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are finishing redeployment of forces removed from the west bank of the Dnipir River. Many to support fighting in the east while others are detailed to increase defenses of the access to Crimea.
Russia continues to be incapable of launching any significant offense against any of the fronts in Ukraine due to personnel issues (losses and untrained conscripts), severe logistical shortages and lack of armor/tanks. They are only capable of launching limited attacks – primarily in the east.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Decreasing precipitation but increasingly cold temperatures in the 10-day forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Like yesterday, Russian shelling increased again around Bakhmut where it was very intensive in phases to cover Russian localized offensives. Now confirmed reports of some minor Russian advances. Bakhmut continues to hold despite the most significant pressure from Russian forces in several directions.
Shelling elsewhere was mostly more sporadic yesterday. Shelling exchanges continued sporadically north of Kherson.
Overnight there were a few missile launches from Belgorod into Ukraine – again primarily targeting power grid related facilities. Some observers note activity at Russian facilities that is similar to those preceding the earlier cruise missile barrages that hit Ukraine in past weeks.
Explosions were reported in Henichesk and Skadovsk of occupied Kherson Oblast, likely HIMARS action. Both strikes show that the main supply route into Ukraine proper from Crimea via the narrow land bridge is very vulnerable.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine continues to pressure the Silversk – Kreminna defensive line
Donetsk Oblast ——
NSR
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Russian’s have established a layered defensive on the left (eastern) Dnipir River region of occupied Kherson Oblast. OSINT and other analysts looking at open source satellite imagery suggest that the defenses are poorly designed and laid out. They seem to focus on fighting the way Russia has been fighting – run straight down a road and frontal assaults. These strong points are not mutually supporting and there are large gaps between them that Ukraine can (and has in the past) exploited to maneuver around Russian positions and cut them off. Time will tell just what will happen.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Battles around Bahkmut and Donetsk to continue. Russia will expend a lot of forces and equipment on tactically and strategically insignificant battles. The only ones potentially benefitting from this blood bath is Wagner Group mercenaries – by being able to claim (exaggerated) ‘victories’ around Bahkmut.
I expect another round of cruise/ballistic missile fire across Ukraine in the near future. However, those attacks may have triggered a western response to provide longer range munitions.
The Pentagon is considering a Boeing proposal to supply Ukraine with cheap, small precision bombs fitted onto abundantly available rockets, allowing Kyiv to strike far behind Russian lines as the West struggles to meet demand for more arms.
Boeing’s proposed system, dubbed Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), is one of about a half-dozen plans for getting new munitions into production for Ukraine and America’s Eastern European allies, industry sources said.
Although the United States has rebuffed requests for the 185-mile (297km) range ATACMS missile, the GLSDB’s 94-mile (150km) range would allow Ukraine to hit valuable military targets that have been out of reach and help it continue pressing its counterattacks by disrupting Russian rear areas.
GLSDB could be delivered as early as spring 2023, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and three people familiar with the plan. It combines the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) with the M26 rocket motor, both of which are common in U.S. inventories.
OBSERVATION – Deeper penetration into Russian rear areas with a guided munition. It was my private thought that US could use the power grid attacks as justification for ATACMS systems. These smaller, less expensive but accurate rockets could fit the bill.
Poland -
Polish defense officials have requested Patriot air defense batteries offered by Germany to bolster polish air defenses be sent to Ukraine instead. Polish President Andrzej Duda said the request made sense from a “military point of view” that the missiles be placed in Ukraine, as that positioning would enable them to protect “Ukraine and Poland most effectively.”
OBSERVATION – The plan would be to train Ukrainians to run the systems. But if placed in Ukraine would potentially cause Russia to escalate attacks.
Pakistan –
Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, announced Monday that they are withdrawing from a months-long ceasefire agreement with the Pakistani government.
The TTP is an umbrella group of Pakistani tribesmen that control the lawless regions along Pakistan’s Afghan border. They have traditional ties with the country’s intelligence service, and elements within the government and military are known to be sympathetic to their cause. Pakistan is a nuclear-armed country, with a history of nuclear proliferation, on the brink of a financial crisis led by a caretaker government fighting two separate armed insurgencies. The deposed former Prime Minister is currently agitating for new elections, despite an assassination attempt in early November. The security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could soon be a growing concern for Washington D.C. (FO)
OBSERVATION – As FO notes, security of the nuclear arsenal is of great concern.
Israel –
See Strategic Activity / Deployments above for practice run to take out Iran’s nuke program.
Iran –
Protests continue.
In a warning, NATO says that Iran and the rest of the countries should not provide Russia with drones and other weapons.
OBSERVATION – This is likely a precursor of the EU instituting new sanctions on Iran. Analysis of parts from shot down drones shows that Iran has been obtaining western materials for their construction – those sources may well be close to being shut down soon.
Syria -
Erdogan has now announced that the air strikes were only the beginning and that he is preparing to launch a land operation when the time is right. -
“We are continuing the air operation,” he said in a speech to his AK party members in parliament, “and will come down hard on the terrorists from land, at the most convenient time for us.”
He asserts that Turkey is more determined than ever to secure its southern border by seizing a “security corridor” running along it west to east – territory that is nominally part of sovereign Syria. “We have formed part of this corridor,” he announced, and “will take care of it starting with places such as Tal Rifaat, Manbij and Ayn al-Arab (Kobane), which are the sources of trouble.”
OBSERVATION – Turkey seized a chunk of this ‘security corridor’ a couple years ago. Now it appears Turkey is poised to attempt to capture more territory – designed to create a buffer zone between the Kurd dominated regions in Syria (and probably eventually Iraq). There is danger if those plans head into US occupied areas of Syrian oilfields.
Turkey -
See Syria for latest attacks in the northern part of the country.
Misc of Note -
Measles vaccinations steadily declined during the COVID pandemic, and that leaves 40 million children worldwide “dangerously susceptible” to infection, according to a joint publication by the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The report says 22 countries experienced “large and disruptive” measles outbreaks in 2021, when an estimated 9 million cases caused some 128,000 deaths worldwide.
OBSERVATION – Don’t necessarily want to start a new generic medical category, but with the CDC and WHO fear mongering it may be hard not to.