Posted on 01/01/2022 3:01:14 PM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to the Threat Matrix 2022. Keep up to date on the multiple threats to our country and life.
What state? Yikes and I thought Florida was gonna have it bad...
Big Sky country of Montana
Nice. Beautiful area.
Sunday our lows will be around 37 with an afternoon high of 48. That’s cold, really cold for my part of Florida.
Beautiful okay but occasionally tough as an old boot.
Thirty below?
Well, that's not unheard of.
Gotta remember we're only just getting into Winter so that's something we sort of expect. Some around here have actually been quietly praying for a good hard Winter to encourage some of the Recent Arrivals to re-evaluate their choices and go back someplace other than "our" Last Best Place.
Okay, I'm the only non-native Montanan in the family but we're sitting on Grandma's family homestead that dates back to shortly after Custer's misadventure and I'm (like Godzilla) so attached to the place now I'd consider this our/my Last Redoubt as well.
Sounds wonderful... you are blessed Unrepentant Vet
That I am.
LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.
Also looking for what 2023 events you are most concerned about.
Globalism / Great Reset –
More refinement on topics to be discussed at Davos 2023 such as:
“Why We Need Battery Passports”
“Leading The Charge Through Earth’s New Normal” (Featuring Al Gore)
“A Living Wage For All”
“Enabling An Equitable Transition”
“Beyond The Rainbow: Advancing LGBTQ+ Rights”
“Advancing Racial and Ethnic Equity” (Moderated by CNN)
“Decarbonizing Supply Chains” (Moderated by Chinese state television)
“Finding The Right Balance For Crypto”
“Tackling Harm In The Digital Era”
The Israeli Intelligence Ministry on Monday unveiled the country’s first-ever national intelligence estimate report on Monday.
The world is at a transition point analogous to being on the verge of a cliff, after which a series of crises striking simultaneously will reorder the planet’s geopolitics, the place of technology, the economic order and a variety of other disciplines from health to energy, according to Israel’s first government national intelligence estimate.
The report was published by the Intelligence Ministry in the vein of the type of reports issued in the United States and other Western countries. A copy was obtained by The Jerusalem Post.
According to the report, the world is on the verge of a cliff and is likely to be struck by a variety of crises affecting all aspects of life. Some of the “danger” areas discussed were health, energy and water.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-725248
OBSERVATION - The GGR/WEF’s new world order is counting on most of the concerns raised by this Israeli report to leverage for its global governance. What is important in Israel’s assessment is that the globalists have Israel in their crosshairs for disbandment or replacement by a ‘Palestinian’ nation. Thus the GGR will not be benign to Israel, but openly hostile.
Economy –
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has revised the number of new jobs created in the second quarter of 2022 down by more than a million, prompting a Bloomberg market expert to issue a warning.
In its Q2 Vintage Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment released last Tuesday, the Philadelphia Fed reports that actual job growth was “significantly” different than the number reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
As a result, the initial sum-of-the-states count of jobs added was inflated by more than a million, according to the new report:
“In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. CES estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period.”
On Monday, Bloomberg Senior Editor for Markets and Opinion Columnist John Authers characterized the revision as a “startling finding” that could prompt the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates:
“The Philadelphia Fed’s Early Benchmark Revisions of State Employment Data provided this startling finding with regard to job growth during the second quarter:
“In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by the sum of the states; the U.S. Current Employment Statistics estimated net growth of 1,047,000 jobs for the period.
“If employment has been overstated this seriously, then the bears may well be right, and further Fed tightening would be very dangerous. Expect this to be a critical issue for the next few months.”
OBSERVATION – This throws the Fed’s so called ‘hot’ job market analysis into a spin.
The 12-month-ahead probability of recession spiked in November across all of yield curve models. The deterioration in the outlook was most significant in the one that relies on the 3-month/18-month forward spread — Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s favored model — which now sees a 59% chance of recession next year, compared with almost 0% six months ago. Yield curve models see the strongest signal for recession starting around September 2023.
We assess the probability of recession in the months ahead by looking at a suite of models: three yield curve models — which take as their sole input the spreads between 2-year/10-year, 3-month/10-year, and 3-month/18-month forward US Treasury yields, respectively — as well as a model that takes 13 financial and macroeconomic indicators as inputs.
All three yield curves inverted further in November, indicating higher probability of a downturn next year. Notably, the 3-month/18-month forward curve inverted for the first time this year, and the model based on that indicator suggests a 59% chance of recession in 12 months (vs. 32% for the same reference period in the prior update) — that would be in November 2023.
My favorite yield curve is the 10-year – 2-year curve which has been inverted for 112 straight days.
OBSERVATION - My first encounter with this “confounded interest’ web site. Reads like a doomer site, with one exception – the prediction of recession starting September 2023. I’ve seen numerous other predictions of the same starting time frame. Why the delay until the latter portion of 2023? Forbes notes -
“The time lag between monetary policy changes and real economic changes is roughly one year. That’s a simplification of what is really a distributed lag, with some small effects early, growing impacts, then tapering effects. “
BTW Forbes is looking at recession starting late 2023/early 2024.
Some factor a 6 month lag for the effects of each Fed prime increase which is why some think earlier in 2023 than later. I think the bottom line stands out. Many more economists are looking at a 60-70+% chance of recession – and many see it as a nasty deep and global one.
More tea leave readings. Top economist Nouriel Roubini has painted a gloomy picture on what 2023 has in store for the global economy.
“I think that really the world is on a slow-motion train wreck. There are major new threats that did not exist before, and they’re building up and we’re doing very little about it,” he said.
He warned that the oncoming economic downturn will be severe. “No, this is not going to be a short and shallow recession, it’s going to be deep and protracted,” he said.
With US inflation at 7.1% and unemployment at 3.7%, Roubini also cautioned the world’s largest economy will almost certainly face a hard landing.
OBSERVATION – Now is the time to prepare. I don’t think our generation is ready for what is coming.
Invasion of Illegals –
Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts ordered an administrative stay on the end of Title 42 scheduled for 21 December. In blocking the Title 42 expiration, Roberts ordered the Biden Administration to respond to an emergency appeal filed by 19 states by 5 pm Eastern today.
In related, Biden administration has requested $3.4 billion to prep for the influx if/when Title 42 is finally halted. Jean-Pierre commented that the money would “…ensure that the men and women of the Department of Homeland Security have the resources they need to secure our border and build a safe, orderly, and humane immigration system.”
OBSERVATION – The wall could have been competed for not much more. $3.4 billion would just be a waste at this juncture.
CW2/Domestic violence –
If nothing else, the Twitter Files and the Kangroo court from congress charging Trump with crimes related to J6 and all the other political weaponizing of the US govt is simply become a raw political power play by the left – done in your face mode. They aren’t even hiding it anymore. We are treading into dangerous territory as the left thinks it can get away with anything – and so far has since they control the powers that be. Govt agencies that overtly inject themselves in to political campaigns and conduct smears on non-leftists is nothing other than old fashioned socialism, a la Stalinism, on steroids.
There’s widespread speculation that Attorney General Merrick Garland will pursue criminal charges against Trump. Garland continued the Barr-era policy that avoided politically-contentious action until after the November midterms, so we expect charges could be filed in the coming weeks or months. If Garland carries this out the CW2 meter will definitively move solidly into the red zone. Besides potentially sidelining Trump for the 2024 campaign, the DoJ will continue to troll for a reaction by elements of the right in order to justify a nation wide crackdown on all us ‘domestic terrorist’, an act that may well drive a kinetic response.
This would structure things as the leftist federal govt vs red country patriots.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Independent writer Michael Shellenberger released part 7 of the “Twitter Files” on Monday, delving into how the FBI and intelligence community “discredited factual information about Hunter Biden’s foreign business dealings.”
The lengthy Twitter thread reveals what Shellenberger calls an “influence campaign” by the FBI that eventually “worked” when Twitter censored Hunter Biden’s scandalous laptop.
Chain of posts found here
FYI , it was also revealed that the FBI paid Twitter $3.5 million for its role in censoring and spreading misinformation.
POLITICAL FRONT –
We knew it was coming, the J6 committee voted to refer charges for former President Donald Trump to the Department of Justice, the first-ever referral of charges for a former president. The committee has also voted unanimously on Monday to refer Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and three other House Republicans to the Ethics Committee for refusing to comply with the panel’s subpoenas. The House Ethics Committee is split evenly along party lines. A majority vote is required to take action, meaning that the referrals aren’t likely to yield results because the committee will soon be led by House Republicans. Republicans on the panel could block consideration of the referral, both this year and next.
OBSERVATION – BTW, according to House Rules, the J6 committee was illegally set up and any referrals automatically do not hold any weight. However, rules are only for republicans and the democrats will continue to push these charges.
The House is moving forward with a massive CR in the range of $1.7 Trillion to last through to fall 2023. House republicans are calling on Senate republicans to put the brakes on the bill.
The House passed The Puerto Rico Status Act, which will require the Puerto Rico State Elections Commission to hold a binding plebiscite to determine the political status of the territory. If the plebiscite results in statehood, the bill requires the President to issue a proclamation admitting Puerto Rico as a state within one year of receiving the results. The Puerto Rico Status Act is unlikely to pass in the current Senate.
OBSERVATION - liberal PR will likely result in a gain of 2 democrat senate seats from any new state. PR in the past has been very split on whether of not to seek statehood. However, in the current democrat insurrection it will be guaranteed that a statehood vote passes.
Justice Department used grand jury subpoenas to secretly obtain the personal email and phone data of at least two top House Intelligence Committee investigators back in November 2017 just as they and their boss, then-Chairman Devin Nunes, were assembling bombshell evidence of FBI abuses in the Russia collusion probe, Just the News has learned.
The subpoenas, obtained by Just the News, show the DOJ demanded that Google turn over personal email and phone data from the two senior staffers on Nov. 20, 2017 and that responsive materials were to be returned to DOJ by Dec. 5, 2017.
Nunes said the subpoenas gave the DOJ and FBI unprecedented potential to learn in real-time what his investigation was learning about misconduct in the Russia probe. “The FBI and DOJ spied on a presidential campaign, and when Congress began exposing what they were doing, they spied on us to find out what we knew and how we knew it,”
OBSERVATION – Continued illegal activities by the DoJ/FBI directed against its political opponents. OMG, only a complete burning of these two agencies to the ground is the only valid response to eliminate this component the cancer growing in our Govt.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Air Force has grounded its entire fleet of B-2 stealth bombers following an emergency landing and fire earlier this month, and none of the strategic aircraft will perform flyovers at this years’ college bowl games.
A bomber experienced an in-flight malfunction on Dec. 10, forcing it to make an emergency landing at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, where it caught fire. The fire was extinguished and there were no injuries.
The standdown is significant in that there are fewer than 20 stealth bombers in the entire fleet and the aircraft provides, along with the B-52 Stratofortress, the air leg of the nation’s nuclear triad. The B-2 has been regularly deployed to the Indo-Pacific and more recently to Europe as a show of force. During the standdown the entire fleet will be inspected, 509th Bomb Wing spokeswoman Air Force Master Sgt. Beth Del Vecchio said.
OBSERVATION - This stand down is dangerously critical to our national defense posture. Designed to penetrate enemy air, they are the only ones that can do this. The B-1 fleet has numerous problems limiting readiness as well, leaving the work horse B-52.
China –
Chinese Liaoning Carrier Strike Group Now Operating in the Philippine Sea
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces continue to construct defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine at this time. There is evidence building that Russia is trying to play out the current Fall mud season’s break in Ukraine’s tempo to try to build up for an early 2023 offensive operation.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
Now on day 300 of Russia’s three day war .. . . . ..
Russia and Belarus agreed to continue the practice of joint military exercises, Putin said. The Russian Federation and Belarus also agreed to develop new military equipment. Russia gave Belarus S-400 and Iskander missile systems.
Apart from that, pretty much nothing of a substance has been revealed to the public after 2.5-hours-long dictators’ meeting during the first Putin’s visit to Minsk in 3.5 years.
OBSERVATION – Initial OSINT analysis of the meeting is that there has been no change in Belrus reluctance to engage deeper into the war. RUMINT suggests that he convinced putin that the NATO threat of invasion of Belarus was significant enough to warrant keeping his forces in country.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
Ukraine is preparing additional measures to protect the Rivne NPP due to the risk of an open invasion from Belarus. This region is in the northwestern portion of the nation opposite from where many Belarus/Russia training exercises have been taking place.
RUMINT –
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Compared to other days, the front lines were relatively quiet. Ukraine set back the Russians on the south flank of Bakhmut, regaining territory. Scattered and sporatic Russian artillery .
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove with Russian attempting to conduct spoiling attacks.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian attacks continue to focus around Bahkmut and northwest of Donetsk. Central Donetsk was hit again by Ukrainian artillery fires. Russian forces reportedly lost positions south of Bakhmut on December 18 and continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and Donetsk City. A Russian milblogger notably claimed that Ukrainian troops pushed Russian units out of positions in Pobieda – “it took us four months to capture”
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
NSR
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory –
Three people were killed, one was injured in an explosion on the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline in Chuvashia. No cause reported as of yet, but is suspicious.
Fire at electrical substation in Schebekyne, Belgorod region due to Ukraine artillery fire.
Railway link disrupted at Suzemka town of Briansk region of Russia as result of Ukrainian shelling.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
Putin ordered the Federal Security Services (FSB) to step up surveillance of Russian society and the country’s borders to combat the “emergence of new threats” from abroad and traitors at home.
In a rare admission of the invasion of Ukraine not going smoothly, Putin cautioned about the difficult situation in Ukraine’s regions that Moscow moved to annex in September and ordered the FSB to ensure the “safety” of people living there.
“The situation in the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions is extremely difficult,” Putin said late on Monday in comments translated by Reuters.
OUTLOOK ——
More of the same. Weather staying warm enough with enough rain/snow to keep the ground thoroughly saturated and very muddy.
Keeping alert for more Russian missile/drone attacks, but expect them to occur next Monday.
Belarus -
RUMINT –
Following meetings with putin, Lukashenka released a statement saying
“Based on the current situation along the border perimeter, we discussed some important details of cooperation in the field of military security. Today we put the S-400 complex on combat duty. And the Iskander complex”
The European Union’s 27 countries agreed on a price cap for natural gas on Monday. The so-called “emergency measure” split the bloc as record-high inflation, energy shortages, and rising costs cause discontent across member nations.
OBSERVATION – Like other measures, this agreement is full of loopholes and likely to have very little impact on Russia.
Israel –
IAF launched airstrikes against Hezbollah related targets near Damascus. Two Syrian soldiers reportedly wounded.
OBSERVATION – Just more of your standard blow up Hezbollah facilities missions.
Syria -
See Israel above on airstrikes
Black Swans -
A magnitude 6.4 earthquake shook parts of Northern California early Tuesday, jolting people awake, the U.S. Geological Survey said, and thousands were without power afterward.
OBSERVATION – The geologist in me perks up. This quake is on the southern margin of the Farallon Plate that is being shoved under the continental US margin at the infamous Cascadia Subduction Zone. Often quakes in this region reflect a simple dextral strike slip motion, meaning the opposite side of the fault moves to the right, relative to the opposite side – mimicking the San Andreas.
Motion resolution of this particular quake – and some key aftershocks – indicate a more complex situation. The moment tensor (some times called the ‘beach ball’) shows the right lateral motion, but with is a pretty significant compressional component – indicative of a reverse or over thrusting motion as well.
Looking at the aftershock pattern, you will see in addition to the cluster around the quake epicenter, a string of aftershocks trending off to the northeast. I strongly suspect that these aftershocks represent larger plate movement rather than the more common tectonic margin seen in these off shore quakes.
Bottom line – this should be a wake up call for the Pacific Northwest. The furture Cascadia event – estimated to be in the magnitude 9 range (1000x larger than todays quake) is a very real possibility sometime in the near future. The last event was in 1700, documented by the Japanese of an unexpected tsunami and more recently by studies of tsunami deposits. Those studies indicate an average interval between events of about 300 - 500 years and yes, one could say we are due. Just like we are “due” on the San Andreas and even the Madrid zones. Just remember, there are pretty wide error bars on these estimates. My old saying is that in a lot of this kind of geology 2+2 = somewhere between 3 and 5.
Seismologists may well provide better observations than this old goat, but the potential consequences of such a disastrous quake on the region and country as a whole should be very evident. Quake damage west of I-5 would be devastating and tsunamis would almost wipe out most of the coastal cities. Regions in the Pacific NW will likely be inaccessible by ground for more than a year. The repercussions would sweep across the country’s economy and social structures.
Godzilla’s comments from Threat Matrix on today’s earthquake - thought they were worth passing on. Enjoy:
OBSERVATION – The geologist in me perks up. This quake is on the southern margin of the Farallon Plate that is being shoved under the continental US margin at the infamous Cascadia Subduction Zone. Often quakes in this region reflect a simple dextral strike slip motion, meaning the opposite side of the fault moves to the right, relative to the opposite side – mimicking the San Andreas.
Motion resolution of this particular quake – and some key aftershocks – indicate a more complex situation. The moment tensor (some times called the ‘beach ball’) shows the right lateral motion, but with is a pretty significant compressional component – indicative of a reverse or over thrusting motion as well.
Looking at the aftershock pattern, you will see in addition to the cluster around the quake epicenter, a string of aftershocks trending off to the northeast. I strongly suspect that these aftershocks represent larger plate movement rather than the more common tectonic margin seen in these off shore quakes.
Bottom line – this should be a wake up call for the Pacific Northwest. The furture Cascadia event – estimated to be in the magnitude 9 range (1000x larger than todays quake) is a very real possibility sometime in the near future. The last event was in 1700, documented by the Japanese of an unexpected tsunami and more recently by studies of tsunami deposits. Those studies indicate an average interval between events of about 300 - 500 years and yes, one could say we are due. Just like we are “due” on the San Andreas and even the Madrid zones. Just remember, there are pretty wide error bars on these estimates. My old saying is that in a lot of this kind of geology 2+2 = somewhere between 3 and 5.
Seismologists may well provide better observations than this old goat, but the potential consequences of such a disastrous quake on the region and country as a whole should be very evident. Quake damage west of I-5 would be devastating and tsunamis would almost wipe out most of the coastal cities. Regions in the Pacific NW will likely be inaccessible by ground for more than a year. The repercussions would sweep across the country’s economy and social structures.
CA paying reparations. That’ll pave the way for others.
Quake damage west of I-5 would be devastating and tsunamis would almost wipe out most of the coastal cities.Did you REALLY have to quote the New Yorker??? OMG
Furthermore, this garbage about a 9.0 is misplaced when it comes to damage inland. Coastal areas will be devastated, no doubt. If it 'unzips', Seattle and surrounding areas will have serious regrets (I could care less about WA). But cities like Portland and the other communities located off of I5 in Oregon - to BOTH to the east AND west - will experience shaking mirroring that of the Tohoku quake of 2011.
Anyone with concerns about the Cascadia Subduction quake of the future should research the Tohoku quake and download all the shake maps, along with the inundation maps if tsunami is a concern. Know your building (home, work and where you're visiting) the exits and, if traveling into an unfamiliar metropolitan area, have a PRINTED map of roads WITHOUT BRIDGES out of town. Where I'm at - just east of I5, meaning that according to the New Yorker I'm in a safe zone /s - the only concern I have is for the bridges and fuel (shelter, food & water are - rather than 'one & done' - a continuing evolution).
No I didn’t quote the New Yorker. That assessment has been out there for years following the big cascadia desk top disaster exercise a bunch of years ago. You are apparently ignorant with that assessment of the condiderable destruction to infrastructure, roads, power lines, oil and gas lines. Most of which is , yes, west of I-5. It will be a mess and I-5 is a general geographic marker for reference.
Btw, considerable studies modeling the cascadia quake have been conducted of the region. It is dangerous to try to make a 1:1 comparison of two distinct geologic settings.
Btw a mag 9 quake is far from garbage.
Second, the New Yorker didn’t produce the article in a vacuum now did they. (Those darn usgs experts huh). Portland is in a valley continent side analogous to kalifornia’s Central Valley. Seismic waves would behave differently versus the bedrock terrain to the west. Btw, research the low seismic risk of the area just west of Sacramento from a mega San Andreas break in the Bay Area. The valley fill attenuates the seismic waves , similar expected near Portland from valley fill.
Really, I’ve read a lot about the potential result if a 9 is kicked off. You’d do better looking at usgs studies rather than a Japanese comparison.
Thanks for the scientific view. Very interesting and makes sense. I live in the seismic safety of Placer County now, but lived in Santa Clara County for 20 years. As dramatic as some of the CA stuff, I’ve always regarded the NW as generally more dangerous. I mean, Mt Lassen hasn’t popped off since 1915, so at least we don’t have earthquakes AND active volcanos down here!
Please don’t become complacent in placer county. You have the Foothills fault system cutting through it capable of a pretty good jolt (iirc mag 5 rang, but my memory fades) Lived in sacto for 24 years and earthquake studies for corps of engineer dams always had to factor then in. However beats Santa Clara by a mile.
You’re the ignorant one. And I chose my polite words.
Stay blissful and get lost.
Godzilla wrote:
“
...Quake damage west of I-5 would be devastating and tsunamis would almost wipe out most of the coastal cities. Regions in the Pacific NW will likely be inaccessible by ground for more than a year. The repercussions would sweep across the country’s economy and social structures.
“
How far south would the tsunamis and damage go?
San Francisco?
Los Angeles?
I have relatives in CA.
I’d have to double check but being lateral from the zone should make for it not to be as severe as the n cal - British Columbia coasts.
Did a quick check. Forecasts are for the pac nw, nothing for SF and south. Alertness is my recommendation. There will be one, but not as severe as further north.
Stock up on those special ear swabs: The fecal matter will build up quickly.
I see you are speaking from experience
Btw here is the source of 5he quote.
Oregon State University paleoseismologist Chris Goldfinger predicts a 700-mile wall of water will surge toward the Pacific Northwest and “everything west of Interstate 5 will be toast.”
Repeated in a number of publications. Ignorance on your part equating the statement of an authority studying the potential quake with it being made up.
Guess this shows you use those swabs by the caseload.
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