Posted on 12/20/2021 9:48:29 AM PST by Browns Ultra Fan
Well, the Dow is down 600+ points today. Bloomberg News is blaming 1) Omicron (that we already knew was gaining steam), 2) Manchin saying “No” on Build Back Better (I predict that Senate Democrats will reach an agreement with Manchin to screw over the American people after the new year begins), but not a mention of China real estate debacle or the decline in oil prices.
Here is the three day decline in the Dow and the three day decline in West Texas Intermediate Crude futures. Likely declining because of an expected slow down in the economy, partly due to China’s RE crisis washing on US shores.
The winner is … China and the fallout from their RE crisis.
Now it could be that the Biden Administration overreacts along with State governors and Mayors helping to create another economic downturn.
With Bill de Blasio as Mayor of New York City and Laurie Lightfoot as Mayor of Chicago, I wouldn’t rule out insane government lockdowns.
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
The Fed scheduling 3 interest rate hike and the end of quantitative easing would be my guess.
How about vaccine mandate?
It’s gonna get ugly if that’s hitting us this soon.
I think you are seeing people run from the year end tax bill. People know the bull market is going to choke. Take your gains and get out of the way.
But the actual impact of those missing interest payments are flowing the markets. EG fails to pay A. A was using that income to fund its project with B. B had leveraged that 10x in the US stock market.
EG —> A —-> B.
When that flow stops the leverage unwinds. It takes a while. But it’s coming.
The markets are selling off in fear of Biden announcing some really stupid actions in his “nationwide address” tomorrow. Manchin abandoning BBB maybe causing some heartburn among those who have invested heavily in the green new deal, ie EV’s and related gimcracks.
(The markets are selling off in fear of Biden announcing some really stupid actions in his “nationwide address” tomorrow)
That’s what I’m thinking too.
A lot of reasons.
Including, generally speaking...a 35,000 point DOW doesn't coincide with the state of business, unemployment and the economy at large.
Debt to GDP ratio.
Indeed everything is unstable now the Dow gets real nervous when that happens panic ensues.
Crypto explosion coming very soon. It will just keep going and people will miss out b/c of fear it is another fake out/bull trap.
Eat your bags, peasant
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/food-inflation-grinch-spoils-christmas-cheer
I think it is just par for the course now that every variant is going to start a spasmodic response among the world and the markets, even if it is no worse than the common cold. If that is the case and it moves government to enact or re-enact emergency orders, then every airline stock is a SELL. I would expect them all to test the lows of 2020. Travel in general is going to take a bath. Consider my family for example. We were hoping to fly from Canada to New York this coming summer for a last trip our 16 year old daughter will have with us before she goes to live on her own. I think that is out. The hoops we will have to jump through just won’t be worth it.
Of course it is. I can imagine some of those players are in the US Congress. But yes Big Players are selling and hoping Joe and Jill Sixpack try to time a bottom and put more money in.
Was talking to another Canadian friend of mine trying to decide who is the biggest village idiot - Biden or Trudeau. It was Biden hands down.
Yes Canada is heading back into lockdowns. No parties over 10 people and they all have to be vaccinated. Already talking about 5 to 12 year old for the vaccine, and booster shots (3rd shot) are being given to the over 65 crowd. I even heard a rumor that they will give 5 to 12 year old crowd the shot without parental consent. Not sure how true that last bit is.
Good point. I don’t know how intertwined Evergreen is to the broader markets. Seems to be a China economy problem but sure maybe US suppliers and lenders will be hurt. I know China refused to bail them out.
There are other things happening that may not be making headlines - or are being ignored. I heard China is putting returning merchant ships into 2 week quarantine, and the crews into 7 weeks quarantine. So getting another crew isn’t an option for 2 weeks, and then the crew itself misses 3 cycles. This was purportedly to stop covid but if it is true I’d suggest it is more of a low grade trade war tactic.
They’re putting Pfizer into the poutine, too....
They’re talking about remote work again, restaurants back to take out or outdoor (in winter) dining again, etc. This time not every state will follow the edicts. But who knows what Biden is going to announce tomorrow? It’s not just vaccines but new jab rules certainly do seem to be what they are telegraphing “a dark winter for the unvaccinated”.
Many big blue cities put a vaccine card mandate. Perhaps they will try to enforce that nationwide. No vaccine, no entry to public facilities. Probably would try to keep them out of hospitals too.
Whatever it is NOTHING is Joe Biden’s fault. Nothing.
Everything’s down but inflation.
Merry Christmas Everybody!
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