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If I were an epidemiologist...
Twitter ^ | 10 October 2021 | "Ethical Skeptic"

Posted on 10/11/2021 5:56:24 PM PDT by Fractal Trader

If I were an epidemiologist - and I could not explain the observations below - I would resign my position and become a heretic to my profession - as a bastion of pretenders.

But once you have letters behind your name, all self-accountability evaporates.

(Excerpt) Read more at twitter.com ...


TOPICS: Conspiracy; Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS:
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The author, who is a quantitative methods expert, thinks that the response to vaccines is deleterious and that anyone who was responsible for implementing the vaccine was clearly in error, fatal error.

Note that in the two graphs below, vaccines caused a tsunami of new cases after the cases had been stable and trending downwards. Most reporting states and countries are seeing five to ten times the number of COVID cases than a year ago when there no vaccine.

Deaths are a bit less frequent proportionately, but still higher

Girl in a jacket

Girl in a jacket

1 posted on 10/11/2021 5:56:24 PM PDT by Fractal Trader
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To: ransomnote; Jane Long

ping


2 posted on 10/11/2021 5:56:44 PM PDT by Fractal Trader
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To: Fractal Trader

Yikes 😳


3 posted on 10/11/2021 5:59:20 PM PDT by SaveFerris (The Lord, The Christ and The Messiah: Jesus Christ of Nazareth - http://www.BiblicalJesusChrist.Com/)
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To: Fractal Trader

Facts not in evidence. No way that vaccines caused a near simultaneous increase in infections, when a much better explanation is the Delta variant causing the increase.

Correlation is not causation.


4 posted on 10/11/2021 6:05:56 PM PDT by Go_Raiders (The fact is, we really don't know anything. It's all guesswork and rationalization.)
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To: Go_Raiders

LOl

The data does not validate your opinion so the data is wrong!

What caused delta?

Ah but there the rub. Neither you, nor anyone else knows. For all anyone knows the “vaccine’ caused the mutation. If the vaccine actually did what it claimed we should not be seeing this upsurge in fully vaccinated “breakthrough” infections

So the attempt to dismiss the data just because it presents a significant problem to the political narrative is intellectually bankrupt.


5 posted on 10/11/2021 6:13:34 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (They would have abandon leftism to achieve sanity. Freeper Olog-hai)
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To: Fractal Trader

Bill Gates grins when he sees that graph.


6 posted on 10/11/2021 6:17:02 PM PDT by Deaf Smith (When a Texan takes his chances, chances will be taken that's for sure.)
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To: Fractal Trader

The medical profession is so clueless about so many things

I have had a test that is not normally ordered that shows an abnormality. EVERYONE has ignored it because they didn’t know what to do with it...and turns out..it was a key clue to the fact that I have at least one extremely rare auto immune disease

On the plus side..all the research I have done on COVID and all the meds I have on hand are now coming in handy..including Cinchona Bark.


7 posted on 10/11/2021 6:19:49 PM PDT by RummyChick
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To: Go_Raiders; ransomnote; Jane Long

That’s a pretty poorly evidenced comment.

First of all, no one can tell who has the Delta variant or, more properly, the test needed to determine if there is a delta variant are not being performed on a regular basis, so it is factually impossible to support your claim by looking at cases, since they are not being tested for the Delta Variant.

Further, most of the surge came way before the Delta Variant was identified and aven further before the Delta Variant became predominant. The earliest known sighting of the Delta Variant was in March 2021. (A quick Google search will return this result.) The graphs below peaked by April, 2021.

QED


8 posted on 10/11/2021 6:20:15 PM PDT by Fractal Trader
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To: Go_Raiders; MNJohnnie; Fractal Trader; ransomnote

Correlation is not causation.


There’s that tattered cliche the FR VPs LOVE to bandy around.

Of course it isn’t causation....it NEVER is, with them.


9 posted on 10/11/2021 6:25:44 PM PDT by Jane Long (What we were told was a “conspiracy theory” in 2020 is now fact. 🙏🏻 Ps 33:12 )
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To: Go_Raiders

Likewise , you cannot blame it on the delta variant because correlation is not causation.

That sword you used cuts both ways.


10 posted on 10/11/2021 6:28:58 PM PDT by metmom (...fixing our eyes on Jesus, the Author and Perfecter of our faith….)
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To: MNJohnnie

Somewhere in the depths of time a post on FR discussed “leaky” vaccines, that is those with less than 99% effectiveness, would lead to viral mutation.


11 posted on 10/11/2021 7:03:01 PM PDT by packagingguy
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To: Go_Raiders

That’s what you’ve convinced yourself. And of course you could be right. If you could also be completely wrong.

There hasn’t been one single thing about this whole thing that has been the truth.


12 posted on 10/11/2021 7:05:50 PM PDT by qaz123
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To: MNJohnnie

Bingo….

I’m no epidemiologist but I’m thinking it takes a bit longer than a month or two, or even 6 more the, for a mutation to occur.

The symptoms for the “Delta Variant”, if it actually exists, are the same as the original.

The “vaccines” were supposed to protect people. They don’t. So why not make up a boogeyman to justify everything.


13 posted on 10/11/2021 7:09:02 PM PDT by qaz123
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To: Go_Raiders

What if there is no “Delta variant”?


14 posted on 10/11/2021 8:49:52 PM PDT by MercyFlush (The truth about Australia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TjgGJHDVxo)
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To: Fractal Trader

Those graphs don’t even show correlation.

Why would cases go sharply down when vaccination us still increasing?

Could suggest the vaccine does little to decrease cases - ie it’s worthless.

Or vaccine zealot could say it takes time for kick in and caused the sharp decrease.

This data can’t answer either of those suggestions.

But it doesn’t show vaccines cause the increase in cases.


15 posted on 10/11/2021 9:23:24 PM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: ifinnegan

There were 20 countries where this exact same behavior existed, accelerating cases and deaths following vaccination, which occurred during an overall decline in cases previously.

Any basic application of statistical inference would how tha the claim has a far greater than 95 percent of being true. These are what get taught in baby stats, so I feel sorry for you that you don’t even have a basic understanding of such elementary scientific methods.


16 posted on 10/11/2021 9:38:53 PM PDT by Fractal Trader
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To: Fractal Trader

17 posted on 10/11/2021 9:44:27 PM PDT by Mount Athos
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To: Fractal Trader

The two graphs aren’t the same.

One vaccination rate precedes the sharp case bell curve, which would be expected if the vaccine were causing it. You’d expect a lag in a parallel climb which we see.

But the other overlaps. No time for the effect to occur. The graphs are not the same.

And in both the case curve drops as sharply as it went up. But the vaccine rate was only half what it is and the vaccine rate only increase, doesn’t drop parallel to the sharp case drop.

Did they graph the wrong data for vaccines?


18 posted on 10/11/2021 9:59:07 PM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: ifinnegan

You must be blind.

Read the Twitter post. He is an extremely talented quantitative scientist who makes the claim that it is criminally negligent that case counts and vaccines have this distressing shape.

I will certainly take his judgment over your “analysis”


19 posted on 10/12/2021 6:16:10 AM PDT by Fractal Trader
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To: MercyFlush

What if everything you read or watch only has about a 0.01% chance of being factual?


20 posted on 10/12/2021 8:10:34 AM PDT by Go_Raiders (The fact is, we really don't know anything. It's all guesswork and rationalization.)
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