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The Technosphere chokes on a chip
Club Orlov ^ | 06/13/2021 | Dmitry Orlov

Posted on 06/19/2021 10:58:38 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX

It seems natural to expect that, as the market conditions affecting the semiconductor industry continue to deteriorate while the demand for critical components needed to maintain vital infrastructure systems around the world continues unabated, China will be able to exert a disproportionate influence on the availability of these components. It is quite foreseeable that the Chinese Communist Party will see the semiconductor industry as strategically important and nationalize key parts of it, fashioning it into a tool of foreign policy. The United States will, of course, pretend to be doing something about this state of affairs, making for a noisy international environment, but will not be able to prevent access to semiconductor products from becoming rationed, with China in almost complete control of the arrangements.

These arrangements are likely to be enforced by China and Russia working in tandem. China is insular by nature and can in general either trade with other cultures or absorb them. The one exception in Russia, to which China now clings like a needy girlfriend. The symbiosis is a natural one: unlike China, Russia is the opposite of insular and can digest and appropriate entire foreign civilizations. This century they are Mongols; next, Germans; then the entire Russian imperial court starts speaking French; and now English is fashionable.

(Excerpt) Read more at cluborlov.blogspot.com ...


TOPICS: Computers/Internet; Science
KEYWORDS: china; collapse; microchips; russia
I don't know anything about this author, and I certainly hope he is wrong. It's an interesting but scary scenario.
1 posted on 06/19/2021 10:58:38 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX
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To: Pining_4_TX

I recall having a President that talked a lot about moving jobs here, and had successes doing so. Think that same President warned us about China, and took action to protect the interests of Americans first.

Really miss that President.


2 posted on 06/19/2021 11:03:21 AM PDT by Made In The USA (Ellen Ate Dynamite Good Bye Ellen)
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To: Made In The USA

“Really miss that President.”

I do, too. Americans don’t realize just how much leverage China has over the US now and how it’s getting worse. Meanwhile, US politicians are too busy promoting BLM and transgender activism.


3 posted on 06/19/2021 11:05:13 AM PDT by Pining_4_TX (O Lord, our Lord, how majestic is your name in all the earth! Psalm 8:9)
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To: Pining_4_TX

What is going on here? During the Cold war Intel and AMD couldn’t even sell Computer CPU’s and equipment but now the ChiComs are threatening to “nationalize” the Integrated circuit and Chip industries.

The Congress needs to get on the technological ball here and start banning of technology transfers to the ChiComs. They have declared an economic and Biological war against the United States.There is no reason to assist them with our technological demise.


4 posted on 06/19/2021 11:11:56 AM PDT by puppypusher (The world is going to the dogs.)
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To: Pining_4_TX

China is the largest importer of semi conductors in the world.

The dominant manufacturers are S Korea and Taiwan.

The US has beyond adequate manufacturing capacity, though a large number of fabs have been turned off due to cost competition.

It’s a commodity business at the low end (phones, cars, TVs, refrigerators etc.) and out of China’s reach at the high end.

All the truly high-end processors are designed in the US (sometimes Japan), and the most sensitive ones are manufactured here...by government edict. The rest are outsourced to the Asian countries.

The US has great, unused capacity.


5 posted on 06/19/2021 11:37:07 AM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Pining_4_TX

Ford had it coming

Ford’s whole business model is
screw their customers

now, they cant sell trucks


6 posted on 06/19/2021 11:40:50 AM PDT by RockyTx
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To: Pining_4_TX

Orlov is a Russian-American who watched the collapse of the Soviet Union and its struggle to re-form itself as the Russian Federation. He likes to write about all the aspects of civilization that humans (Americans in particular) never think about and absolutely take for granted.

His writing and ideas are provocative, which makes them interesting.


7 posted on 06/19/2021 11:44:00 AM PDT by PGR88
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To: Made In The USA

You can hear Xi now, “OPEC, hold my beer”.


8 posted on 06/19/2021 11:46:11 AM PDT by hardspunned (former GOP globalist stooge)
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To: Pining_4_TX

The Chicoms have been working steadily toward this Chinese Century. And made great progress.

More warships, more weaponry, more cargo ships, more control of shipping ports, more space activity and now a station, more biogenetic engineering/production, more pharma production/export, more commercial and residential commodity production/export, more processed food production/export, more purchases of U.S. businesses and land.

DC politicians, big business leaders and deep staters know what’s coming, and are getting on the safe side.


9 posted on 06/19/2021 12:13:25 PM PDT by polymuser (A socialist is a communist without the power to take everything from their citizens...yet.d)
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To: Mariner

Yep, the writer of this article seems to know very little about what he is talking about.

At the moment China has very limited semiconductor manufacturing capacity.

Right now China is the one that is entirely dependent on imports from unfriendly countries. They would love to change that, but making high end chips is hard.


10 posted on 06/19/2021 12:30:52 PM PDT by Renfrew
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To: Renfrew

“They would love to change that, but making high end chips is hard.”

The Chinese can’t make anything worth a sh!t if it requires BOTH a pristine supply chain, and process precision in the manufacturing.

Even with detailed process manuals, training, mentors on the floor. And precise, detailed engineering documents. When the experts leave, everything goes to the crapper.

Same with high-end jet engines.

I think it’s cultural.


11 posted on 06/19/2021 12:40:11 PM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Mariner

It would be nice if China could never figure out those things, but I think they will with time.

It took Japan decades of making crap before they began to compete with American manufacturers on quality.

I would bet that in 25 years the Chinese equivalents of Intel, Boeing, and GM will be among the largest companies in the world.


12 posted on 06/19/2021 1:47:07 PM PDT by Renfrew
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