“Seems like the timing is good, but I don’t know how well the Taiwanese can hold them off?”
It appears the present Taiwanese government is competent and intent of maintaining their freedom. A war will mean the level of suffering on the scale of previous Chinese disasters. That means horrible deaths and slow starvation. Modern populations are not as prepared to suffer like that as where their ancestors. The Chinese will promise anything and forty percent of the population will buy into it. Even though history says their promises are worthless. Abused wives think, okay, this time he means it. He won’t hurt me again.
If the Taiwanese have deployed remotely activated mines and they have done so even to remote Chinese waters, then, they can cause devastating losses that will destroy the Chinese economy. The very reason the Chinese are attacking is the same reason the Germans and Japanese had to start a war. The Chinese vampire economy has run out of stuff it can suck out of its other territories. It must find new blood or it is doomed to implode. So, if the Taiwanese have large numbers of deployed mines and available disposable drones, then they can likely hold out. But the longer the conflict lasts, the more Taiwanese people will starve. They don’t produce enough food to feed themselves, but then, neither do the Chinese. Both sides will likely be limited in what they can import as no one will send in ships to either side as those ships will be sunk.
It’s probable that the United States will, at least passively, support the Chinese...because...Biden. As the Chinese get desperate, they may insist the US actively support them, either with “humanitarian” food shipments or with intelligence or diplomatic pressure I don’t see the US getting involved militarily on the side of Taiwan. Because...Biden.
Wild cards are all of the other nations who have disputes with China. Likely, those nations will not do anything militarily, but they likely will be neutral, but on Taiwan’s side.
The powerful black queen on the board is Japan. But Japan is a tired, aging nation and probably wishes the whole thing would just go away. Also, the US will likely pressure Japan to remain out of the fight. Because...Biden.
Do you think China is prepared to lose it’s Three Gorges Dam? If I were Taiwan that would be my first target and I’d let the CCP know it.