Posted on 10/31/2020 11:42:22 AM PDT by OceanGazer
It’s the predictable prediction of late-trailing candidates: “Polls, shmolls. Election day turnout for me is gonna be ginormous.” Particularly predictable for Trump. Skepticism should govern these eleventh-hour electoral miracle claims. But this election may actually be an exception. Trump realistically could be saved by huge turnout from a certain “hidden” voting segment: seniors. Wait…seniors?!
Yes…younger seniors. The widely discussed Trump-has-lost-the-seniors narrative focuses on the 65+ crowd and misses this key point. Those aged mid-50’s to mid-60’s have not left Trump. In fact, this is the generational cohort which has polled highest for Trump throughout 2020. In many polls, it’s the only age group to favor him, and often by large margins. Some signs point to a massive turnout by this segment on election day itself. In studying generational electoral data for over twenty years, I’ve rarely seen a generation in such a potentially pivotal position.
Generational election stories get obscured by the standard age categories (e.g. 30–39) commonly used by political pollsters. Shame, because these stories can be crucial. With turnout, generational dynamics can sometimes bring voters to the polls far more than gender, race or socioeconomics. Some generational election stories are worth knowing.
This one is an updated version of that old 1946–1964 baby boom story. Today’s seniors were born primarily during that boom. Originally, all born then were lumped into one long generation. But many experts have since seen two distinct generations. I see the Baby Boom Generation born 1942 to 1953; Generation Jones born 1954 to 1965.
They came of age politically during fundamentally different eras. Boomers became the stereotypic 1960’s peace-and-love liberals, Jonesers the 1980’s Reagan Youth. For many years, Boomers were usually the most Democrat-voting generation, Jonesers the most GOP. Ironic that the two politically opposite generations would ever have been combined as one.
As both aged, they became more conservative; the typical life cycle effect. Boomers became GOP-voters, but squishy ones; still libs at heart. Jonesers somehow became even more conservative. Which is saying something.
Enter Trump. Boomers said yes in 2016. Then things soured. Boomers started leaving Trump even before the pandemic. Jonesers voted Trump in 2016 as well. Then things didn’t sour.
Can the huge Jones support translate into a Trump victory? Yes. The formative common denominators within a generation can be extraordinarily powerful motivators of voter turnout. And Trump has a secret weapon of sorts here with Generation Jones. A…well, trump card: Grievance. With a capital “G”.
Jonesers’ collective sense of grievance stems from huge expectations left unfulfilled. Jonesers had arguably the biggest childhood expectations in U.S. history. As they grew up, they were confronted with a dramatically different reality. Generation Jones was left with a certain underlying craving, jonesin’ quality (a main connotation of its moniker). A flip side of this jonesin’ is grievance. Jonesers crave what they were promised, and resent not getting it. No other American generation feels nearly as aggrieved.
Trump’s grievance comes from a whole other place. But the point is this man feels grievance. Very, very deep grievance. Jonesers bond with this viscerally and strongly. Super glue-strong.
Especially the aggrieved white working class male Jonesers. In the entire electorate, Trump support is most concentrated in them. They are arguably the core of the core of the Trump base. This is a substantial segment of GenJones, and many of them didn’t vote in 2016. The generational component magnifies the gender and socioeconomic factors. Their election day turnout numbers could be explosive.
Can Generation Jones be stoked by grievance to save a controversial, non-popular-vote-elected GOP President? It’s happened before. In 2004, like 2020, there were relatively few persuadable voters. Bush masterfully used grievance with cultural wedge issues to turn out his largely GenJones base. Especially the white working class male Jonesers who typically don’t vote. That support coalesced dramatically in the closing days. His final turnout numbers with GenJones were extraordinary, particularly in some battleground States. A Mason-Dixon Polling analysis found it was specifically the GenJones vote in the key battleground States which beat Kerry. Jones saved Bush. As the Polling Report’s post-election cover story concluded: “History will show that one generation of voters — Generation Jones — provided the decisive vote that re-elected George W. Bush.”
Will Generation Jones save Donald Trump? No predictable predictions from me. This essay doesn’t argue it will or won’t happen (nor is it for or against Trump). The point is that it realistically could happen. Neither Democrats nor Republicans should assume it’s over for Trump. Some generational election stories are worth knowing. In these final days before election day, it’s worth keeping up with the Jonesers.
Good points. We Jonesers really were the sex, drugs and rock&roll generation. That’s usually said of the “real” Boomers (born from the early 1940’s to early-1950’s. But it was just a small, albeit disproportionately visible and vocal segment, of the Boomers who were actually living that lifestyle. It was more that the Boomers introduced this radical new lifestyle in their music and with their opinion leaders. But very few Boomers actually did drugs, engaged in free love, had long hair (as guys), etc.
It was when Jonesers came of age, arrived in high school, that these these lifestyle choices became mainstream. Suddenly, starting in 1972, guys in high school (ie. Jonesers) started growing their hair long (the contrast between 1971 vs. 1972 high school senior guy yearbook photos was dramamtic. I think I read it went from something like 6% of guys with long hair in 1971, to over 40% long hair of guys in 1972). Generational change: the first Jonesers were born in 1954, which made them high school seniors in 1972.
But it was much more than guy’s hair length. Jonesers smoked pot at much higher rates. Very few Boomers smoked pot in the 1960’s, despite all the media hype. It was Jonesers in the 1970’s that were the big pot smokers. By then, it was mainstream , and you were unusual if you were in your teens then and not smoking dope.
And sex? Jonesers were much, much more sexually promiscuous than Boomers. It was post-The Pill, and pre-herpes/AIDS. Sexual experimentation was in the air, and Jonesers were doin’ it like rabbits.
And the “formative President” of our young adulthood, as it were, was Ronald Reagan.
Us “Jonesers” came of age with Reagan. We were politicially new and inexperienced when Reagan came to power.
We had our political views formed, watching how the media and deep state at the time panicked when they saw Reagan actually start to shrink government.
Thats when we realized the “machine” doesn’t like candidates who actually get things done and defang and downsize big government.
We also realized then that media lies big time.
Well I was born in ‘68 but it’s close enough to the Jonesers generation :)
And you’re right.
How the heck did we end up conservative?
I guess we had good parents and in the end I think they were a stronger influence as we got older than the sex, drugs and rock n roll.
Plus bouncing around from partner to partner gets stale fast.
Who could afford coke back then? I couldn’t :)
And Rock N Roll is pretty harmless..the hair bands were about partying..they weren’t meant to learn life lessons from :)
But my brother was born in 58...and I remember the long hair, he did tons of drugs, listened to Floyd and Deep Purplse...and he ended up being a conservative lawyer :)
Go figure
“And as far as Trump: he has his good and bad points, but to claim he is an “uncorrupted businessman” is to ignore the Mount Everest of evidence that obviously says otherwise.”
Bull crap.
A lot of us who came of voting age in 70s and 80s saw our older siblings become cuckoo hippies, mess up their lives, and cause enormous grief to our parents. We wanted nothing of that and Reagan was a bright beacon of hope of restoring sense, responsibility and tradition to the world the hippies messed up. We were thankful when some hippies turned around and went right, and sad or angry when others never really grew up. We went the opposite direction in voting, lifestyle, even clothing.
I don’t necessarily agree with his term grievance, it sounds like whiny millennials, we aren’t that. I think our generation is focused and determined to do what needs to be done.
Yes— we were also the first generation to grow up experiencing the devastation caused by easy divorce and the widespread availability and social acceptance of illicit drug use. All these bad consequences made us realize that “sex, drugs, and rock’n’roll” were entertainment, not a political philosophy or a way of life.
Yeah...we Jonesers definitely have fine-tuned BS Detectors...
It depend on where you fall within the age spectrum of GenJones. The oldest Jonesrs would have been 18 in 1972 and could have voted in the Nixon-McGovern race. Others voted first in the 1976 Carter-Ford contest. But yes, I do think that Reagan was the formative President for most Jonesers.
And AIDS was such a bad consequence as well. Up until herpes, sexual diseases were easily cured, but then these incurable viruses arrived and it all changed...
Six months to slow the spread...Every morning I sign in to work (no mask) to have my temperature taken, and I am asked if I have any symptoms...people show up just to hear my response of the day!
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