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So Joe says during the debate there will be another 200K dead before the end of the year. Correct me if I’m wrong on his quote.

Over the last 8 weeks the US has averaged 5,468 Covid-19 fatalities per week. At that rate it will take 36.6 weeks or about 9 months not 2 months.

Also, US Covid 19 fatalities have remained relatively flat vs much larger volumes of cases. Fatalities are actually decreasing.

Using the average number of fatalities per week in eight week periods, we have weekly averages of 5,468, 6,461, 7,385 and 8,566.

To the point Joe’s forecast is a scare tactic and, at least for now, covid 19 fatalities are steadily trending down.

Over the last 8 weeks the US has averaged 5,468 Covid-19 fatalities per week. At that rate it will take 36.6 weeks or about 9 months not 2 months.

We’re headed into “flu season”. There is a reason that it is called that despite the flu existing all summer. Calculations such as yours here (linear) are not valid for such (non-linear) patterns. The conditions for spread of COVID and for the flu are very similar, except that unlike the flu, COVID is even more transmissible, and did not fall to trivial levels once springtime hit. We should expect an explosion of cases this fall, regardless, and should probably become more cautious and rely less on outdoor and sunshine protection as we’ve been able to. While that doesn’t mean go into lockdown (which clearly didn’t work even under much more optimum conditions), or be paranoid, it does mean to be more conscientious about staying home when sick, limiting (but not eliminating) visitors, being even more careful about contact with the elderly and older middle-aged, and most importantly...wash your hands.

That said, your other point is on the nose - the fatality rate for those with cases serious enough to go to the hospital is down from a bit over 1 in 4, to about 1 in 15. And the rate even needing hospitalization appears to be dropping as well - beyond the effects of wider testing.

Oh, and infection tracing efforts, became a stupid waste of resources once there was widespread community spread, back in March. It may become useful again, once the numbers drop to a few hundred cases a week - but until then it’s just silly and obnoxious.