Most likely the latter.
He would have died in a terrible boating accident.
I just said this on another thread. I would not be surprised if Hunter was found dead of a drug overdose sometime soon. It would tie up a big loose end AND give poor ol Joe some sympathy right before the final vote.
This is one reason why Rudy was correct to wait this long.
If the info was released sooner the Deep State would have time to concoct a false flag murder of Hunter (attacked by crazed right wing conspiracy nut).
And it would be blamed 100% on Rudy and Trump.
I had the same fleeting thought...