Jim Hoft is spot on.
Unless a candidate is trailing, there is no reason to campaign in a state. Thus any time Biden campaigns in Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin, it means the candidate is losing those states.
I would agree with this in most POTUS election years. But given how the DEMs have reacted since November 2016 and what’s occurred in 2020 (so far), you may want to throw out past patterns.
Thus any time Biden campaigns in Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin, it means the candidate is losing those states.
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I wouldn’t say that the candidate thinks they are “losing” by visiting these states. Rather, the candidate views these states as close. If Biden were truly up 5 or more nationally, he would be campaigning in Montana to help Bullock win the Senate race, or in Alabama to help Jones, or in New Mexico-—states with Senate races. A visit to NV is for his benefit only and the state only has 5 electoral votes. Hispanics are turning.
It’s like Trump having to campaign in Wyoming or Idaho.