Tillis and Romney will vote to confirm.
Not sure about Ernst.
That leaves McSally and Collins.
After Murkowski, we can afford 2 defections. I suggest we offer the same deal Heidi Heitkamp from North Dakota got (she too knew she was going to lose reelection so the Democrats offered her a nice lucrative gig at a Democrat leaning think tank for being a loyal team player if she would vote their way against Kavanaugh which she did).
Between Ernst, McSally and Collins we just need to hang on to one of them. That makes it 50-50 and Mike Pence gets to cast the deciding vote.
I believe McSally said she’s in, full steam ahead.